Current Affairs Joe Biden POTUS #46

[sdk]

There will be a sizeable amount of people agitated by BLM etc. that will turn out for him.

Indeed, expect that to be Trumps attack line - law and order if he's returned with a big win. Normally an incumbent wouldn't be able to possible use that attack line but Trump can due to the "deep state" rhetoric.

My view is that he's going to be unapologetically racist and horrific in the election run up. Nothing to lose - he simply needs to rile up his base (hence yelling at the religious simpletons in the US that Biden hates God etc.)

Again, I think arguments are being made here and elsewhere (e.g., "law and order" could be a winning strategy for Trump) that would be conventional wisdom if applied to any preceding president, but given Trump's own habit of pooping all over precedent and being as unconventional a president as he can be, I don't think we can assume such traditional truisms necessarily still apply. Trump can rile up his base with his increasingly over-the-top rhetoric, but it may well be at the expense of the support he had among independents last time. I also imagine that lots of people who'd normally go for a law-and-order candidacy have concluded that Trump himself is the root cause of much of the social agitation we've been seeing lately.

 

[neil999]

I think there are a lot of white men who will vote for trump because they have been frustrated by the red tape and restrictions that hold back the markets (their pensions). They only see the short term gain in binning all the regulations.
They look at Trump on foreign policy and think they are being ripped off by NATO, the iran deal and the Paris accord and are happy he did a u-turn. Again short term gain and no perspective of the bigger picture.
Theres a lot of single issue pro life voters.
but the biggest reason of all is 'they're sick of all this PC nonsense'.

Give them a candidate who says what he wants, lets the markets run unchecked, doesn't give a crap about international relations and appoints the most conservative judges his lackeys can find and they'd vote for him no matter what he did.

These same people keep their eyes and ears glued to old school media which has less and less outlets for advertising revenue so it churns out more and more propaganda.

Yeah there is no chance of turning those people, but surely...surely there must be some middle of the road republicans who can’t vote for him

 

[Ruairi77]

Yeah there is no chance of turning those people, but surely...surely there must be some middle of the road republicans who can’t vote for him

Yup, I think there are a few. But I think a lot of middle of the road Republicans are white middle class suburban voters and they see what they consider 'the American way of life' being eroded. They relate to the cops and firefighters not BLM, they blame democrats like AOC for their kids wanting to play soccer and not baseball, trumps tweet about increasing the value of suburban properties was strategically divisive.
These people wont vote for Trump because they think he's too much but they won't vote for Biden because they blame the democrats for all their problems.

Biden needs a big turnout from democrats and independents. It's going to have to be a huge anti trump turn out because Biden lacks the charisma to drive momentum on his own.
I think the democrats see this and thats why they are sitting back and letting the likes of the Lincoln Project do the heavy lifting

 

[BlueTX]

I'm not at all certain the silent Tweetie voter of 2016 exists in the same numbers as today. Back then, even in the weeks before the election, there was a fairly sizeable number of undecideds (6% or so) in polling. Those people broke heavily for him. There doesn't seem to be that many undecideds this time and polling accounts for many of those 2016 voters who decided late for Tweetie. They now lean Biden. Also worth noting is Dem enthusiasm to vote is quite a bit higher in 2020 than it was at a comparable time in 2016 or even 2012 when Obama clobbered Romney.

So our little group in San Antonio, TX has now made 5,000 calls into Arizona targeting folks who did not vote in 2016. If our sample is meaningful, Tweetie is in trouble there. So is Martha McSally.

In my own little neighborhood, which leans slightly GOP, my wife and I walked every street counting yard signs and flags. It's the first time we can recall since Obama in 2008 that Dem signs outnumber GOP. This time by an even greater margin.

Long way to go, though. By election day Everton will have probably played a handful of matches in the 20/21 season.

 

[Ruairi77]

I'm not at all certain the silent Tweetie voter of 2016 exists in the same numbers as today. Back then, even in the weeks before the election, there was a fairly sizeable number of undecideds (6% or so) in polling. Those people broke heavily for him. There doesn't seem to be that many undecideds this time and polling accounts for many of those 2016 voters who decided late for Tweetie. They now lean Biden. Also worth noting is Dem enthusiasm to vote is quite a bit higher in 2020 than it was at a comparable time in 2016 or even 2012 when Obama clobbered Romney.

So our little group in San Antonio, TX has now made 5,000 calls into Arizona targeting folks who did not vote in 2016. If our sample is meaningful, Tweetie is in trouble there. So is Martha McSally.

In my own little neighborhood, which leans slightly GOP, my wife and I walked every street counting yard signs and flags. It's the first time we can recall since Obama in 2008 that Dem signs outnumber GOP. This time by an even greater margin.

Long way to go, though. By election day Everton will have probably played a handful of matches in the 20/21 season.

Thanks BlueTX!

 

[BlueTX]

Thanks BlueTX!

My pleasure, ma'am.

Still don't think Biden will take Texas, sadly. We're weird. Not like Austin "good" weird. Plain old weird.

 

[Ruairi77]

with a lot of college campuses going remote, stuff like this could make a huge difference
Thank god zuckerberg never managed to buy this crowd.
https://www.axios.com/snapchat-voter-registration-023b3f7c-a226-48de-832b-b5685d7894d2.html

 

[BlueTX]

with a lot of college campuses going remote, stuff like this could make a huge difference
Thank god zuckerberg never managed to buy this crowd.
https://www.axios.com/snapchat-voter-registration-023b3f7c-a226-48de-832b-b5685d7894d2.html

This is the big takeaway for me:

The big picture: Snapchat successfully registered 450,000 people through its app during the 2018 midterms. Data released in May shows that 50% of those registered actually went out and cast ballots.

50% may not seem all that great but voter reg drives don't typically get a conversion rate (register to actual voter) that high. The kids may save us!

 

[mezzrow]

I missed this earlier this week, but it is in the attached link at the very end of a long article:

...a group of former top government officials called the Transition Integrity Project actually gamed four possible scenarios, including one that doesn’t look that different from 2016: a big popular win for Mr. Biden, and a narrow electoral defeat, presumably reached after weeks of counting the votes in Pennsylvania. For their war game, they cast John Podesta, who was Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, in the role of Mr. Biden. They expected him, when the votes came in, to concede, just as Mrs. Clinton had.

But Mr. Podesta, playing Mr. Biden, shocked the organizers by saying he felt his party wouldn’t let him concede. Alleging voter suppression, he persuaded the governors of Wisconsin and Michigan to send pro-Biden electors to the Electoral College.

In that scenario, California, Oregon, and Washington then threatened to secede from the United States if Mr. Trump took office as planned. The House named Mr. Biden president; the Senate and White House stuck with Mr. Trump. At that point in the scenario, the nation stopped looking to the media for cues, and waited to see what the military would do.


https://www.nytimes.com./2020/08/02/business/media/election-coverage.html

 

[BlueTX]

I missed this earlier this week, but it is in the attached link at the very end of a long article:

...a group of former top government officials called the Transition Integrity Project actually gamed four possible scenarios, including one that doesn’t look that different from 2016: a big popular win for Mr. Biden, and a narrow electoral defeat, presumably reached after weeks of counting the votes in Pennsylvania. For their war game, they cast John Podesta, who was Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, in the role of Mr. Biden. They expected him, when the votes came in, to concede, just as Mrs. Clinton had.

But Mr. Podesta, playing Mr. Biden, shocked the organizers by saying he felt his party wouldn’t let him concede. Alleging voter suppression, he persuaded the governors of Wisconsin and Michigan to send pro-Biden electors to the Electoral College.

In that scenario, California, Oregon, and Washington then threatened to secede from the United States if Mr. Trump took office as planned. The House named Mr. Biden president; the Senate and White House stuck with Mr. Trump. At that point in the scenario, the nation stopped looking to the media for cues, and waited to see what the military would do.


https://www.nytimes.com./2020/08/02/business/media/election-coverage.html

I thought it was you who posted this a few days ago but from PJMedia?

Here's a link to the findings of the TIP rather than an excerpt from the exercise: https://paxsims.files.wordpress.com...esidential-election-and-transition-8-3-20.pdf

 

[mezzrow]

I thought it was you who posted this a few days ago but from PJMedia?

Here's a link to the findings of the TIP rather than an excerpt from the exercise: https://paxsims.files.wordpress.com...esidential-election-and-transition-8-3-20.pdf

I'm getting old, I guess. I plumb forgot I posted that over here, and that's the truth. I remember BB getting all het up over that PJM link, though. I was reading the Times article at the source, and there it was again.

You can credit all my contributions to senility. A wasted mind is a terrible thing. Move over, Joe.

When's dinner? Thanks for the link.

 

[LinekersLegs]

My pleasure, ma'am.

Still don't think Biden will take Texas, sadly. We're weird. Not like Austin "good" weird. Plain old weird.

Agree but hopefully some money that Trump campaign would invested elsewhere will be used to protect its 38 votes

 

[PSB1]

I'm not at all certain the silent Tweetie voter of 2016 exists in the same numbers as today. Back then, even in the weeks before the election, there was a fairly sizeable number of undecideds (6% or so) in polling. Those people broke heavily for him. There doesn't seem to be that many undecideds this time and polling accounts for many of those 2016 voters who decided late for Tweetie. They now lean Biden. Also worth noting is Dem enthusiasm to vote is quite a bit higher in 2020 than it was at a comparable time in 2016 or even 2012 when Obama clobbered Romney.

So our little group in San Antonio, TX has now made 5,000 calls into Arizona targeting folks who did not vote in 2016. If our sample is meaningful, Tweetie is in trouble there. So is Martha McSally.

In my own little neighborhood, which leans slightly GOP, my wife and I walked every street counting yard signs and flags. It's the first time we can recall since Obama in 2008 that Dem signs outnumber GOP. This time by an even greater margin.

Long way to go, though. By election day Everton will have probably played a handful of matches in the 20/21 season.

It's people like you, all over your nation, working so hard, who are carrying the hopes of a very large part of the globe. The going might get tough and you'll get precious little in the way of thanks but for God's sake, keep going. The rest of us need America to come back from this nightmare regime and take its proper place in world affairs.

 

[BlueTX]

It's people like you, all over your nation, working so hard, who are carrying the hopes of a very large part of the globe. The going might get tough and you'll get precious little in the way of thanks but for God's sake, keep going. The rest of us need America to come back from this nightmare regime and take its proper place in world affairs.

I am humbled by such kindness and support. Thank you.

Such as it matters, there's no chance of my letting up. None.

 

[BlueTX]

I'm getting old, I guess. I plumb forgot I posted that over here, and that's the truth. I remember BB getting all het up over that PJM link, though. I was reading the Times article at the source, and there it was again.

You can credit all my contributions to senility. A wasted mind is a terrible thing. Move over, Joe.

When's dinner? Thanks for the link.

All good @mezzrow .

We may not be on the same page politically but a guy who loves Everton, baseball and music can be forgiven.