Horse Racing

[evilwebby]

Yep, just thought it was interesting.

There IS a way to make consistent money on horse racing which I have been exploiting for almost a year now (it's almost become a 2nd job), but it has nothing to do with taking tips. It's called each-way arbing and it can be employed in in about 3-5% of races where the standard odds on offer mean that the bookie is overbroke on the each-way book so you can tip the odds in your favour if you take the bet as an each-way instead of just a win-only.

 

[jal123]

Yep, just thought it was interesting.

There IS a way to make consistent money on horse racing which I have been exploiting for almost a year now (it's almost become a 2nd job), but it has nothing to do with taking tips. It's called each-way arbing and it can be employed in in about 3-5% of races where the standard odds on offer mean that the bookie is overbroke on the each-way book so you can tip the odds in your favour if you take the bet as an each-way instead of just a win-only.

Until they limit your accounts and how much you can get on making it pretty pointless as a source of income long term

 

[evilwebby]

Until they limit your accounts and how much you can get on making it pretty pointless as a source of income long term

yeah, absolutely. I put nearly all of my bets on in-shop. It is a lot more work, no doubt about it, but there is money to be made if you are willing to put in the legwork. I'm lucky being in London I can easily get to hundreds of bookies to spread my bets around and stay under the radar.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

yeah, absolutely. I put nearly all of my bets on in-shop. It is a lot more work, no doubt about it, but there is money to be made if you are willing to put in the legwork. I'm lucky being in London I can easily get to hundreds of bookies to spread my bets around and stay under the radar.

how do you know which races to target?

 

[evilwebby]

how do you know which races to target?

In 8 or 9 runner fields you want races where there is a heavy favourite (better than odds-on) so that the outright price for all the other runners is much higher.. eg 7-1 or 8-1 for 2nd fav, 12-1 for 3rd fav.. all the way up to 100-1 or longer for the outsiders. The standard 1/5th each-way payout is then in your favour as the price you are getting on them placing is much higher than their chance of actually placing in reality. You can get some very long odds on the outright win on horses that are 3rd/4th/5th on these horses which in turn converts to very good odds on the place part of the bet that in contrast to their real chance of actually placing.

Today's 2:40 race at Sedgefield is a prime example. Take the best price for all the runners, convert this into the win probabilty, and then convert all the bets to each-ways and calculate the probabilities for the each-way book. You will find that there is roughly a 110% win book and a 260% each-way book (where it should be >300%), meaning they are more overbroke on the each-way book than they are profitable on the win-only book... These races are unprofitable from an each-way perspective for the bookies (and hence profitable for the punter). In this case there is no odds-on fav, but instead two strong joint favs, which is really the same thing.


OR

Large handicap fields paying 4 places at 1/4 odds nearly always lend themselves to profitable each-way bets.. so long as they are not too large (16 or 17 runners is ideal.. the more runners you get the more difficult it becomes).

Next question I sense coming is... even if you are getting good odds on the place part, how can you guarantee to win and make some money? The answer is that if the odds are in your favour, you can hedge either or both the win & place part of your bets on the exchanges to either set yourself up with a risk-free chance of winning something, or do a straight lay to guarantee some profit whatever the outcome of the race.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

In 8 or 9 runner fields you want races where there is a heavy favourite (better than odds-on) so that the outright price for all the other runners is much higher.. eg 7-1 or 8-1 for 2nd fav, 12-1 for 3rd fav.. all the way up to 100-1 or longer for the outsiders. The standard 1/5th each-way payout is then in your favour as the price you are getting on them placing is much higher than their chance of actually placing in reality. You can get some very long odds on the outright win on horses that are 3rd/4th/5th on these horses which in turn converts to very good odds on the place part of the bet that in contrast to their real chance of actually placing.

Today's 2:40 race at Sedgefield is a prime example. Take the best price for all the runners, convert this into the win probabilty, and then convert all the bets to each-ways and calculate the probabilities for the each-way book. You will find that there is roughly a 110% win book and a 260% each-way book (where it should be >300%), meaning they are more overbroke on the each-way book than they are profitable on the win-only book... These races are unprofitable from an each-way perspective for the bookies (and hence profitable for the punter). In this case there is no odds-on fav, but instead two strong joint favs, which is really the same thing.


OR

Large handicap fields paying 4 places at 1/4 odds nearly always lend themselves to profitable each-way bets.. so long as they are not too large (16 or 17 runners is ideal.. the more runners you get the more difficult it becomes).

do you back more than one horse at EW in each race then ?

 

[hallamblue]

do you back more than one horse at EW in each race then ?

My guess is he backs every horse except the favourite. I'm guessing you back them all each way and then lay off the win part online?

 

[Ivo]

Is there any way to do just the 'place' part of an each way bet? So one single place bet as opposed to two (win and each way)

 

[evilwebby]

do you back more than one horse at EW in each race then ?

Yeah, mostly. The beauty is that the heavier the fav the more distorted their books get and the more each way arbs you will find. Sometimes virtually every horse is worth getting on. One good example was the Arkle trophy at Cheltenham where there were 9 runners with Altior a very heavy fav at 2/7, so you could back every single other horse each-way and guarantee yourself profit because the each-way book was something like 220%.

Be warned however that there is one big risk which is if there is a withdrawal that takes the number of runners below 8 then the terms of the each-way payout change from 1/5th top 3 to 1/4 for top 2. This does inevitably happen from time to time and it can be costly.. but you just suck it up and move onto the next race.

 

[evilwebby]

Is there any way to do just the 'place' part of an each way bet? So one single place bet as opposed to two (win and each way)

most bookies do offer "to place" bets but then it just becomes a mug bet and you won't get better odds than you can get on the exchange Place markets anyway.

You have to take it as an each-way bet if you want the value. One way you can do it as Ivo suggests is to take the each-way bet and lay off the win part only. Of course you'll take a qualifying loss as you won't bet getting an arb on the win part, so the trick is to get the best price available, keeping the slippage on the win part to a minimum and then the value on the place part will more than compensate if you have done your sums correctly.

 

[Eggs]

most bookies do offer "to place" bets but then it just becomes a mug bet and you won't get better odds than you can get on the exchange Place markets anyway.

You have to take it as an each-way bet if you want the value. One way you can do it as Ivo suggests is to take the each-way bet and lay off the win part only. Of course you'll take a qualifying loss as you won't bet getting an arb on the win part, so the trick is to get the best price available, keeping the slippage on the win part to a minimum and then the value on the place part will more than compensate if you have done your sums correctly.

...too scientific for me but it's pretty much what I do anyway. I rarely back anything in single figures but I'm a mug punter who backs for a bit of fun.

 

[evilwebby]

...too scientific for me but it's pretty much what I do anyway. I rarely back anything in single figures but I'm a mug punter who backs for a bit of fun.

You could be taking a 20-1 EW shot and get 4-1 on the place on a horse whose real chance of placing is evens in a small 8-runner field, or you could get on a 20-1 horse in the grand national and be getting 5-1 the place when the real chance of it placing is 6-1 or worse. It all depends on the structure of the race.. one bet is a good bet, the other is not..

It's not really scientific or complicated, you just need to know what to watch out for - like I said, 8/9 runner fields with a strong fav, say better than 4-5, and 16+ runner handicaps (also preferably with a strongish fav). You just want big outright prices on underdog horses who are not likely to win but have a strong chance of placing.

 

[Eggs]

You could be taking a 20-1 EW shot and get 4-1 on the place on a horse whose real chance of placing is evens in a small 8-runner field, or you could get on a 20-1 horse in the grand national and be getting 5-1 the place when the real chance of it placing is 6-1 or worse. It all depends on the structure of the race.. one bet is a good bet, the other is not..

...to be honest, I back big priced ones in the hope they will win. I treat the place aspect as a bit of insurance. I won't always do a straight e/w, I often have 1 point ew and 1 point win. That's why I like the ante-post market for the Championship races at Cheltenham, this year I had big prices on horses that ended up favourites for the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup. Both dipped of course.

I might even have a daft win only bet on the tote, this year £5 win only on Richard Johnsons winner that paid close on 50-1.

 

[evilwebby]

What every punter should know when betting on horses (and sports in general) is that the general odds on offer are massively accurate as a prediction of outcome over the long term. Sounds obvious, but you wouldn't believe how many people fail to grasp this concept.

I use this site extensively which allows you to query horse racing results based on their SP and other factors.

It demonstrates that over the long run horses assigned a particular SP will win almost exactly the %age of times the odds suggests they should. It becomes almost impossible to beat the system just by trying to pick out winners, as you will need considerable skill and knowledge to overcome the bookies' margins.. nobody gets "lucky" enough over the long run.

 

[hallamblue]

What every punter should know when betting on horses (and sports in general) is that the general odds on offer are massively accurate as a prediction of outcome over the long term. Sounds obvious, but you wouldn't believe how many people fail to grasp this concept.

I use this site extensively which allows you to query horse racing results based on their SP and other factors.

It demonstrates that over the long run horses assigned a particular SP will win almost exactly the %age of times the odds suggests they should. It becomes almost impossible to beat the system just by trying to pick out winners, as you will need considerable skill and knowledge to overcome the bookies' margins.. nobody gets "lucky" enough over the long run.

I used to use Adrian's site before he stopped producing ratings. Is the data not now several years out of date?