Group D: Poland, Netherlands, Austria, France

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So, as it stands, the formula for distribution in the second round draw is ACDE.

Caveats: The Slovaks and the Romanias are GUARANTEED progression with a draw in the last match. They play each other. Put your house on a 0-0. That won't change the table.

Obviously, the England group will change the table. Denmark or Slovenia could fall down it with defeats. England could end up in this table if they lose.

But the big change would come if the Czechs beat the Turks. Or if Georgia beat Portugal.

Clear as mud.
 
It's all changing now.

The Dutch are now third, and their group leads the way.

1. Group D (NED) 4 PTS 0 GD
2. Group E (SLK) 3 PTS 0 GD - 1 game left
3. Group A (HUN) 3 PTS -3 GD
4. Group C (DEN/SLV) 2 PTS 0 GD - 1 game left
5. Group B (CRO) 2 PTS -1 GD
6. Group F (CZE) 1 PT -1 GD - 1 game left
Looks like England, if they win, are playing Netherlands.
 
So, as it stands, the formula for distribution in the second round draw is ACDE.

Caveats: The Slovaks and the Romanias are GUARANTEED progression with a draw in the last match. They play each other. Put your house on a 0-0. That won't change the table.

Obviously, the England group will change the table. Denmark or Slovenia could fall down it with defeats. England could end up in this table if they lose.

But the big change would come if the Czechs beat the Turks. Or if Georgia beat Portugal.

Clear as mud.

You can discount the Czechs from the permeations, couldn't beat Turkey when we had a halfway decent team, let alone this incarnation.
 
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