The eye test would argue with AI - this from the bookies site.:
A win, but a struggle for Arsenal
EVERTON have had
ARSENAL's number at Goodison Park in recent years, the Toffees having won four of an unbeaten last five when hosting the Gunners, including Sean Dyche's first game in charge last season.
For whatever reason, Mikel Arteta's side just don't like playing on Merseyside full stop. Across their last 10 trips to Liverpool to face either the Red or Blue half, the Gunners have lost eight times and drawn twice.
Mikel Arteta's side can buck the Merseyside trend on Sunday
They have more quality and more of a backbone now than they have in the last five years, though, so I think this could be the turning point of their misfortunes. So far this season their defence has been bettered only by Manchester City - according to xG - shipping just 0.96 xGA per game, while their attack continues to perform at a high level (2.05 xGF per game).
Everton's issues have been putting the ball in the net, with the chances being created (1.98 xGF per game), though it is worth noting that they have had a kind schedule, facing
Fulham and Wolves at home - two teams who will finish in the bottom half - and
Sheffield United away.
In their sole game against a team who finished in the top seven last season, they were dismantled by Aston Villa.
Their approach here will be a very Dychian one - sit deep in an attempt to contain and counter - which could frustrate the Gunners, but they have found the secret sauce when travelling.
Arteta's side finished last term with the most away points in the league, and won 12 of 17 away games against teams who finished fourth and below, while starting this season's travels with a
win at Crystal Palace.
Score prediction: Everton 0-1 Arsenal
(Sky Bet odds: 7/1)