The whole world was wrong on the effects covid has had on the economy so far
House prices have risen instead of falling ,because people could save and not spend
Free money given out by Governments all over Europe
However I believe when the life supports to the economy are taken away ,we are going to see a crash bigger than 08
Unless the Governments keep printing money we will see ,record unemployment (especially among the under 25s) ,Businesses going bust left right and Centre
Hospitality and tourism will be devastated ,
Taxes will have to rise to pay back the so called free money
If that scenario happen then transfer fees are only going one way and quickly at that
Mbappe , Neymar ,Haarland and their ilk will still be big money but the rest no way
Clubs will need to sell to prevent them going to the wall, they will not be able to buy so for the clubs that can spend there will be better value
In terms of the wider economy, I wonde rif we will see a mixture of printing lots of money, inflation and a fair bit of borrowing, to do what happened after 08 in a much more measured way.
Football however is not as insulated. Football basically benefitted from big foreign TV deals and City being bough out and spending loads of cash. I don't think there are two equivalent events to keep it going. The wider trends are also worrying for football, you do sense the TV deal is at it's upper end, and travel will become more difficult, so people taking up the premium seats over the next couple of years will be down a fair bit. Lots of football clubs have also built up big debt over the last 12 months too.
I do think, in honesty, the transfer market was slowing up a bit before the pandemic. And most of the biggest teams require a growing market to help them comply with FFP.
As for the final point, premium tends to remain strong. I think players under 25 will hold value best, you can hold them through the recession and hopefully get to the other end. Probably younger players the most. Haaland and Mbappe certainly will. Although in honesty, even Mbappe, maybe 2 months ago, Liverpool might have been to out some sortof deal to him, maybe Real Madrid could have signed him, I'm not sure even they will be able to do so.
So essentially I think spending down, prices to inevitably follow, but as you say "premium" to hold value, and the closer a player is to 20 the more they will hold value (with the closer to 30 being the opposite). Some other trends, teams in France, players whi have shorter contracts, players at clubs who are particularly exposed could also drop. As they say, if teams are desperate to sell, prices will be slashed.
I'm in sales now, we have dropped prices 30-35% in the last 6 months. You have the theory but needs must. We are taking any margin for now, getting people on board, probably to aggressively up costs in 12 months if we can with even existing clients.