Were not actually going to sign anyone.. are we?
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Simon Buttle
Player Valuation: £60m
Don't disagree mate but he looked a player at Sunderland, slightly inconsistent at times but a very clever and dangerous wide player who used guile and skill more than pace to do his thing.
Simon Buttle
Player Valuation: £60m
I'm sure we will do our customary bit of deadline day business.
Paul Rideout
Player Valuation: £40m
Yeah I knew it was set to plummet, the weird advantage of not really spending nowt for 3-4 years straight
Just from looking through previous seasons. This summer the following drop off PSR.
Godfrey 5.5m
Maupay 3m
Not a huge drop in reality, but wages factor in also which includes all the players leaving on frees - ballpark figure if all OOC players leave us is around 550k per week give or take - best estimate which is a PSR reduction of around 26m per season roughly.
So if we are currently compliant with head room of around 10m say, the scope we'd have would be approx 35m additional not including the current 10m in terms of PSR - assuming zero change in revenue over last season but that pretty much has to cover any new amortized costs incurred this January and next summer AND the costs of all incoming wages going onto the books.
obviously the new stadium will see a big uptick on revenue along with commercial deals etc so we in theory should have a huge room in terms of PSR but with a lot to do with that room.
Doucoure, Gueye don't count against PSR currently btw due to their initial contracts having ran the course and them being into an extension now.
This current season saw a much bigger drop on amortization costs btw, roughly 38m came off it and we still needed a sale of Onana to ensure compliance
You’re forgetting Gomes last summer mate. He had a total cost of 11 mill a season wages and amortisation. His going was huge. While Onana also had a high wage and Amortisation.
As for this year I expect there is lingering brain farts from the Moshiri era in terms of interest payments and the like. Then whatever unanticipated Compo for Dyche and his team.
I don’t see cash flow being an issue after June 2025, our biggest issue will be the PSR headroom, think you are looking at three things raising boats:
1) Reduced cost, loss of interest payments on outstanding debts - hasn’t been mentioned on here much R&M and 777/ACAP interest payment are no longer an issue as is that debt. We have a lower wage bill, we have a lower amortisation bill and it gets lower again in June 25, relative even to our to current turnover.
2). Increased revenue, the new ground, we can expect our turnover to go to from 190 mill - 240/50 mill. That creates the broad base to take on additional cost. I caveat that, because there is an untapped potential in the ground…I’m talking commercial deals, naming right, 365 venue, gigs etc.
3) Player trading. Moving on the likes of Beto pushes headroom up. I’d really like to keep to Branthwaite, but from a strictly business point of view if he went, given all of the above I mention - for 80 mill - we’re brewstered.
What if it WAS the Olympic!?
Saint Domingo
Player Valuation: £90m
The league is going to hate us if we start having some money again and actually spend it well this time with Moyes at the helm.
toffeeblue9
Player Valuation: £35m
The only thing I am vaguely concerned about is that the new rules for PSR with the percentage of revenue to wage/transfer expenditure is something I haven't quite got my head around yet as to whether it ends up being better or worse for us than the current status quo. Not knowing what sort of revenue uplift we get from the new stadium, naming rights, etc is a question mark and then you have the unknown about what sort of interest the remaining refinancing is going to attract (although clearly better than the current situation).
Not that long ago we used to have great craic finishing ahead of Spurs and Mordor and we were skint.
In reality though we’ve huge work to do.
Cant emphasise enough how Moshiri has run down this football club.
I know we’re in great form after a win vs Spurs and I don’t want to bring anyone down.
But we are in a position squad wise after Moshiri that the likes of Brighton and Bournemouth can empty their benches to kill us off in games.
Thats the sad reality, huge work to be done to this club and squad fundamentally and it will be done in steps.
The watch word for a couple of years is recovery.
Personally think the PL will blink mate, I think the thresholds will be higher then in Europe, while they were also fiddling around with the lowest club budget thing. The sub text as I read it, is they want to appear to be controlling spending, but in truth want to keep pumping the goose that lays the golden egg.
Agreed on above - baseline the new ground is going to bring us to the same revenue at WHU and Villa (on a good year for them) we rely on our wits from there and that baseline, I think we can grow revenue from that baseline.
We are in a substantially healthier position than we have been in a long time. The business is recapitalised and balance sheet in the main repaired.
We just need the competences in and off the pitch to make hay with improved resources now.
Saint Domingo
Player Valuation: £90m
All true
However, there’s going to be a cyclical nature to PS&R and we’ve licked our wounds for years now whilst building the stadium. We’ve slashed the wage bill, trimmed the squad right down and have a load more players about to go off end of contract.
We’re potentially entering a period where we will have PS&R headroom just as revenues will increase from the stadium, interest payments from debt will decrease, and increased commercial deals will bring in more money. A blank canvas to build a new squad potentially.
Other teams unless they qualify for the CL are going to be in a position of choosing to either sell players, or not buy new ones. No matter what the likes of Bournemouth Brighton Brentford Palace Forest do, unless they get CL qualification the revenues from their stadiums and commercial deals just do not cover the expenditure they require on their squads to compete.
We were at our weakest for a long time but having survived the storm we may now be in a position to capitalise whilst a few others are yet to take their medicine.
Tried philogene, then nuamah...Weah now, just guess we'll end up with the fourth or five option in the list on deadline day which will be seen as a panic buy and definitely not elite.
Noisy noise annoys
Player Valuation: £70m
Nah
100% mate. I said on here two years ago after we stayed up by the Dukes goal that Brighton and Brentford would be relegated long before Everton will be and was laughed at.
But it’s true at our very worst, we’re that big that you have to be at your absolute catastrophey lowest to get relegated - we’ve been very close - that’s how badly we have been run. But it’s an anomaly and almost impossible. We can be unlucky a lot and not get relegated, Brighton, Forest and Brentford need to be unlucky once and they are gone.
Thats not to be arrogant and we are still a ramshackle, but broad based those clubs just long term can’t compete to maintain, you have to get it right to often and they won’t. Yet the uncomfortable truth is Bournemouth, Fulham, Brighton, Forrest and Brentford have to be our targets next season. Thats how far we have fallen.
As for them. It’s like us competing Real Madrid for three or four seasons if we ever got into the CL, they’d always come back in the years ahead to win the thing ultimately.
It’s sheer scale of the broad base.
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