1) Agreed
2) 100% agreed - this is probably the most important point in any bounce back debate
3) Disagree - they have missed the most days to injury & the most match (PL) appearances due to injury. Both very similar stats & the most telling, despite it ignoring the compounded nature of their injury list. They have double the average in both metrics compared to league in totality
4) I'm not so sure, I think it's an easy argument to say, they havent conceded that many goals; so therefore defence has been ok, but the reality for them is their full backs and MF have both massively struggled without the platform offered by their defence. Tons of variables for this, including confidence, lack of Midfield & their triangles and so on and so on. What I do think will be one of Klopps biggest regrets from this season will be failing to back Nat Phillips from early doors & shoehorning MF's into CB, which with hindsight (as many argued at the time as well) was a stupid decision.
On the overarching point of the Klopp next move - I'd tend to agree; it's a hailmary play & I think it is unlikely he can reverse this seasons collapse, but I feel it is the only chance he has & there are more variables in his favour than Pochettino had. He can argue next year will be different with the return of the crowds, injuries, rest, pre season and simply civilization getting back to normal. Poch had none of these cards to play, players were tired & it was very hard for Poch to make a case for proper change. As an outsider looking in it does feel like everything together has hit them hard, they look downbeat, sad and feeling sorry for themselves. Covid is certainly not the cause of that, but it will take its toll when other things are tough.
In terms of predicting points totals, I appreciate it is your best guess and nothing more, but for me it is an impossible task, especially with no clue what their squad will look like. What we are seeing more and more is there is little correlation in results from one year to the next & there is no reason that will change, it could get worse. Simply look at Villa / West Ham for counter intuitive performances, there are countless of examples of +20 point swings in PL performance year on year and that trend seems to be growing rather than declining.
My guess is they are at the point, where they are praying they dont get Europa or the other tournament managing a lighter load with the hope of getting top 4 the next year, but that is of course risky business in itself.
1) Just as a point of order, I don't think they have had most days, I believe that is Crystal Palace. So in neither of the 2 key measures (players and days) they are not the worst affected. They have been affected, but by no means the worst is my wider point.
2) I mean of course there is a wider argument here, but we are dealing with the edges. Centre backs defend, midfielders consolidate, fullbacks and atatckers attack. They have kept Arnold and Robertson fit through most of the season, the front 3 have remained fit for that time. They have also kept Thaigo and Wijnaldum, who would have been central in their plans fit. There is no excuse for why the attacking play has gone to pot. If it was a mild drop off,mahbe some credence can be given to them losing VVD, but they've fallen off a cliff. I don't foresee, when you see the ages of those players, any of them getting magically better next season.
The CB's for them have become a scapegoat, but as their core job- to stop goals, they've done that quite well. Were Liverpool losing 4-3 every week, or Martinezing it, I would have some sympathy for the view, but the attacking players have really let them down.
Of course there are some differences to Spurs, but I see it as very similar. Oddly Poch was given a lot of money to spend that summer, and it didn't work out, as once the rot sets in, it's very hard to turn it around. In the end, it's still 22 men kicking a ball around, and if you lose a yard of pace, or a bit of intensity or desire, it probably doesn't come back.
As for guessing, I am probably allowing some of my trading way of thinking come into it. I mean it's a bit reductive, but it also gives a good basis. Very few teams will lose 30+ points year on year and automatically get it back immediately. They are at the start of a long journey now. I'd say the same for us, for consistency, you don't become a 60 something point team and catch City in a season. We have a younger squad, a more settled manager and momentum, but I wouldn't even say we could do it.
The Europa thing is an argument in itself. I tend to waffle on, but if I wastrying to be succint I'd say they'd actually want it for revenue streams. You'd imagine that sponsors will have an additional negotiate down clause if they have no Europe, and Anfield doesn't get used 10+ times a season more than it might, which is a big money loser. The flip is though, it puts big pressure on your squad, so I do get it's a catch 22.
