ECHO Comment: "Fears of Witch-hunt Against Liverpool FC" part 3

[longers]

 

[MrGrumpy]

Yes to all of that.

That statement is a declaration of war too. Hes thrown them under the bus. You learn a lot about people in difficult moments, and I'm sure what FSG have learnt is that at the first sign of trouble he buckles and throws others under the bus. I mean Bill Kenwright and his ilk of chairman are one thing, but I do struggle to see American venture capitalists taking too kindly to what is a middle manager doing what he has done.

As for the 2nd point, a more long term coach would have likely written the season off long ago now. Ferguson would do that. Pep did it last season. Accepted the title was gone and start preparing for next year. It's taken him 12-18 months to box off, but it looks to have paid dividends.

I can see no logical reason why you wouldnt play a lad who's nearly 20 and another who's nearly 24 in their position rather than shoe horning people in. If you are one of their youngsters now, you know you're never going to get a chance.

What hes done is really explosive. He has broken the idea of collective responsibility and many fans now have their stick to get at the owners. As I keep saying, having these spats never ends well for anyone. Say what you want about Ferguson, and to a degree even Moyes, but managers of that outlook understood that.

Nothing is gained from throwing your colleagues and owners under the bus, other than a bit of cheap fanfare.

I wonder if Klopp wants to get fired and go back home to Germany, Covid clearly changed the world and maybe he worried about family and that’s causing him to stress

 

[Tipp blue]

He's impetuous. Owners hate that. Ferguson would concentrate his ire on failing CEOs. He knew how to play the long game and get the chance to build a dynasty.

I said a few weeks back that Klopp cant do dynasty. He's not strategic enough for it. He knows his style of football (and "recovery") gets results but it cant be sustained. He needs to replenish a squad to carry on at the same level of intensity. He did't get it at Dortmund and lost it, and FSG aren't the type of owners to hand that option to him at Liverpool either...and certainly not in this financial environment in football.

The youngsters were their only way out of that...and it turns out they aren't all that.

Correct.. he has his hoof and rush style but took it to another level compared to what the PL had seen before and executed it perfectly. It took other teams time to figure out how to defend it but it's obvious now that that has happened.
How many times have we seen a promoted team come up and do well and get a top half finish only to get relegated the following year. They get figured out quickly. Klopp would appear not to have a plan B... if plan A is not working let's stick to plan A...

 

[mahermi1]

but I thought he wasn't going to buy the league like the other nasty clubs??

Yes so he done it just the same... pity their fans still preach, they spend no money and hate these greedy oil baron clubs. I also see they want their owners out, FSG out trending on Twitter. They blame them for this bad run and possibly missing out on top four, but they don't blame them for winning the CL and the * premier league last season. Totally spoilt fans.

 

[catcherintherye]

They are skint. Due to covid nobody is paying stupid prices for their dross, the likes of Wilson, Origi, Grujic, Shaquiri etc who they were probably counting on making about £60mill from. Brewster was considered one of their best prospects and he was sold to fund Thiago.

May be another crisis incoming when the big teams cant afford Mane/Salah so they wont have any funds in the summer either. On top of that, quite a few of their big players will have 2 years to run on their deals so do they stick or twist? New bumper contracts come with big £££ too.

No wonder they cant pay Wijnaldum what he wants.

This is absolutely spot on mate. I'll try to avoid a loooong post (and no doubt fail) but the financial situation is really difficult for them.

I see loads of them saying "it affects everyone the same doesnt it". It really does highlight their ignorance, not just on recessions generally but also this particularly recession. They are inherently uneven processes.

Let's look at this one, and forgive me a bit of generalisation for the sake of simplicity, but we know its impacted the big 6 clubs more. They are more dependant on Commcercial and gate revenue than broadcast deals, relative to the other 14, who are more dependent on domestic TV deals. While all have seen a shrink, the domestic TV revenue has held up very well comparatively (as a slight aside I'm intrigued to see if UEFA can maintain the same prize money for CL this year with no fans).

The big 6 are not 1 massive block either. Chelsea have an owner who's less wealthy than Usmanov but comparatively wealthy. City have a very wealthy owner. Both are happy to invest heavily in the short term for the benefit of long term position. They have liquidity and desire to do so. So that will ease troubles.

United have huge cash reserves (Liverpool do not) of £300+m. They will eat into lots of these but will help them sustain losses and still have liquidity. They also have long term commercial relationships that go far beyond what Liverpool have.

So you are left with Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal. I kind of lump them in together to be kind, of 3 clubs who do not have cash reserves and do not have owners willing to invest their way out of it. That's me being over generous to Liverpool though. Liverpool have a far higher wage bill and transfer commitments than the other 2.

Crucially Arsenal and Spurs also have huge loans from the government to help with short term liquidity. Having them is a big advantage but also that they were eligible for them is an indication of where the relative strengths of the businesses were. That in 2019 Liverpool were as healthy financial as theyd been in a decade or so, and still not eligible is also rather alarming.

So Liverpool are in that most at risk group of 3 within the league, and arguably the most at risk full stop.

There are further challenges for them though. Their owners are essentially adept gamblers. They view it as really view the world, and football through a trading lens. In simple terms they have gambled very heavily on the bull market in football, looking to gain an edge by taking greater risks than competitors it would keep growing. All the while it did, it was a smart risk. The crash they, has left them really exposed.

That has been in the form of signing players to long contracts with a lot of up front agents/signing in costs with the assumption 2-3 years down the line that with tbr growing market they make a lot of money. As you've said that's now not happening. That they generated no fees for Shaqiri, Chamberlain, Origi, Grugic, Wilson etc is indicative of this. Theyve been to slow to change tact, lower prices etc. There is probably an issue with wages though, and that the wages they are on make it hard to even sell at a discount.

The other issue with this is they have budgeted and planned for those sales that havent happened over the last 18 months and probably expect to make more over the next 12 months or so. They wont. They have gambled and made calls based on the above logic, bought players, gave out contracts etc on the assumption they could trade their way out with players. Hard to predict how much of an impact that has on their plans in terms of scale, but it will be causing issues.

That you have the likes of Pearce, Hughes etc essentially writing these pieces now is very telling. Hughes write one that stated that Liverpool are not in a financial position to sustain success. Given they phrase it that they expect Liverpool to spend less anyway and still believed they could win, that they are essentially saying its doubtful they an moving forward is very ominous. They are saying they are going to be a lot less competitive in the market than the previous couple of years when on the face of it they have scaled back. These people know the owners and the club better than me, and it doesnt seem a coincidence these articles are emerging now.

As a final aside, its not all doom for the. FSG are smart people, and will look to put things right but I doubt most reds will either understand or like the medicine. I imagine they will look to rebalance the books, get some liquidity going through the company and start again.

If sales cant be made of fringe players, sell big name stars. If you cant get the big fee you anticipated (which its now widely accepted they cant for Salah) sell 2 or 3 big name players. Klopps tantrum may well cement this, as he may have been the only thing preventing it happening. Essentially, ride the dip and start again. Dont invest on a downward trajectory.

This is classic trader thinking, and what they have done in America with their much preferred Red Sox.

In theory it works too. You have a couple of years dipping, then you rebuild over a 3-5 year period. The issues obviously are, that fans will hit the roof, which you obviously dont have to contend with on the trading floor. Also its not automatic you fight your way back. You can end up getting lost in the spiral downwards. To a degree Arsenal have this. United too. In many ways we did in the early 90s.

Big organisations can go into crisis with a period of planned decline. People lose faith and their heads as it goes on.

So interesting to see what happens next, but it all looks a bit ominous to me on the outside.

 

[catcherintherye]

I wonder if Klopp wants to get fired and go back home to Germany, Covid clearly changed the world and maybe he worried about family and that’s causing him to stress

It could well be mate. It reads like a guy who either wants to lose his job, or has stopped being bothered about consequences.

Could be lots of reasons. The side he has is coming to the end of its cycle. They are one of the oldest in the league and they just cant play how they want to.

It took 3-4 years to build his last squad to champions level. You can probably add in 1 or 2 under Rodgers too who did some important prep work for them it's a 4-6 year rebuild probably, with probably less favourable conditions. Yes in fairness they may not need to get to that peak to win the title again, but you get the gist. It's a big ask to want to climb the mountain again. To go and find another front 3 like they had who are early mid 20s and bring then through together etc.

Or it could be that he was made promises that havent been kept. Its probably the 1st time under FSG hes been told no. I dont think hes unreasonable in the abstract to ask for a CB. But if the money isnt there, it isnt there.

 

[PhilM]

Yes to all of that.

That statement is a declaration of war too. Hes thrown them under the bus. You learn a lot about people in difficult moments, and I'm sure what FSG have learnt is that at the first sign of trouble he buckles and throws others under the bus. I mean Bill Kenwright and his ilk of chairman are one thing, but I do struggle to see American venture capitalists taking too kindly to what is a middle manager doing what he has done.

As for the 2nd point, a more long term coach would have likely written the season off long ago now. Ferguson would do that. Pep did it last season. Accepted the title was gone and start preparing for next year. It's taken him 12-18 months to box off, but it looks to have paid dividends.

I can see no logical reason why you wouldnt play a lad who's nearly 20 and another who's nearly 24 in their position rather than shoe horning people in. If you are one of their youngsters now, you know you're never going to get a chance.

What hes done is really explosive. He has broken the idea of collective responsibility and many fans now have their stick to get at the owners. As I keep saying, having these spats never ends well for anyone. Say what you want about Ferguson, and to a degree even Moyes, but managers of that outlook understood that.

Nothing is gained from throwing your colleagues and owners under the bus, other than a bit of cheap fanfare.

I don't get this point as in reality they're only six points behind with half the season to go; if he's writing the season off now, I'd have major reservations!

For me, the issue is that he's not so subtly declaring that he's not entirely happy with the procedures of the club - in other words the constraints.

Is he questioning the process or is he questioning their desire? Does he feel he's getting enough backing? Does he agree with the decision of the owners?

In reality, he signed up to the particular model and it's arguably brought success; now things aren't working on the pitch, he's lashing out at the same process.

As I've said, I think there's disharmony behind the scenes and this is another facet of that, so how they now manage that will be the true test of his/their calibre.

The way they've built their business model of corporate or high-paying travelling fans etc. has already hit them hard because FSG work on a profit basis .

Are they going to accept a huge mark down in their cut? No, so the shoestrings will be tightened elsewhere as their % reliance on match-day will be higher.

 

[bitter-no-better]

 

[catcherintherye]

I don't get this point as in reality they're only six points behind with half the season to go; if he's writing the season off now, I'd have major reservations!

For me, the issue is that he's not so subtly declaring that he's not entirely happy with the procedures of the club - in other words the constraints.

Is he questioning the process or is he questioning their desire? Does he feel he's getting enough backing? Does he agree with the decision of the owners?

In reality, he signed up to the particular model and it's arguably brought success; now things aren't working on the pitch, he's lashing out at the same process.

As I've said, I think there's disharmony behind the scenes and this is another facet of that, so how they now manage that will be the true test of his/their calibre.

The way they've built their business model of corporate or high-paying travelling fans etc. has already hit them hard because FSG work on a profit basis .

Are they going to accept a huge mark down in their cut? No, so the shoestrings will be tightened elsewhere as their % reliance on match-day will be higher.

Well in essence they are 7 behind City, who don't look like dropping many points. Meanwhile they can't find a goal never mind a win. They are in 7th when the sides hae their games in hand, with now a difficult run. You surely have to have half an eye on next year and the year after?

Whatever the above is, the fact he's done it publicly at this moment is what is very damaging. He will sit on the committee indeed he has said he gets first and last word on players. I think FSG have given him what they can, and more. It will need to be reigned in moving forward. He knows the constraints.

I see both sides of it.

 

[PhilM]

Well in essence they are 7 behind City, who don't look like dropping many points. Meanwhile they can't find a goal never mind a win. They are in 7th when the sides hae their games in hand, with now a difficult run. You surely have to have half an eye on next year and the year after?

Whatever the above is, the fact he's done it publicly at this moment is what is very damaging. He will sit on the committee indeed he has said he gets first and last word on players. I think FSG have given him what they can, and more. It will need to be reigned in moving forward. He knows the constraints.

I see both sides of it.

Yes you will and any good manager and his team (DoF etc.) should be doing that all the time.

Yet, I'm always an advocate of looking at the table in the here and now alongside projections: as they say, don't count your chickens before they hatch.

City are in great form and long may it continue, but they may not win their game in hand and without De Bruyne and Aguero things may change.

If Liverpool's form suddenly changes and one of those above or around does the same (negatively), you could see the table and fortunes changes quickly.

My point is that if the likes of Klopp were to take their eye of the ball now (e.g. give up) then I'd have serious questions about their resilience and drive.

The real issue here is he's not concentrating on making the changes on the pitch and instead deflecting blame elsewhere. Where's his resilience there?

 

[catcherintherye]

Yes you will and any good manager and his team (DoF etc.) should be doing that all the time.

Yet, I'm always an advocate of looking at the table in the here and now alongside projections: as they say, don't count your chickens before they hatch.

City are in great form and long may it continue, but they may not win their game in hand and without De Bruyne and Aguero things may change.

If Liverpool's form suddenly changes and one of those above or around does the same (negatively), you could see the table and fortunes changes quickly.

My point is that if the likes of Klopp were to take their eye of the ball now (e.g. give up) then I'd have serious questions about their resilience and drive.

The real issue here is he's not concentrating on making the changes on the pitch and instead deflecting blame elsewhere. Where's his resilience there?

They are not going to win the league mate, as things stand, it's as clear as day. There's no issue with him trying, but it's more that he doesn't do so at the expense of the medium/long term plan. If you are riunning the club how Liverpool are, short termism is a real problem.

I mean he's essentially cried the title in anyway, by saying that they are looking to finish in the top 4.

 

[random]

I don't get this point as in reality they're only six points behind with half the season to go; if he's writing the season off now, I'd have major reservations!

Frank Lampard @4:11 in this clip from his presser seems to agree, and doesn't sound like he is confident he will be there




Ferguson on the other hand always seemed to have an eye on the following year and was quoted that he always looked to see what needed changing up even after they swept the board each year.

 

[BlueStevie35]

The problem with them, that the ‘customers’ don’t seem to grasp, is not the owners, it’s Herr Funboy himself. He’s driven that squad into the ground, that’s why they’ve struggled to win or even score lately

 

[Saint Domingo]

It’s on Klopp to turn it around isn’t it? I thought he had all these world class players? The only one that’s missing is Van Dijk, and in the short term their backup striker. I thought he had the best keeper in the world, the best right back, the best leftback, the best creative midfielder, the best defensive midfielder, the best box to box midfielder, the best front three in world football? All of these players are still fit.

If Klopp really is the best manager in the world, why can’t he just cover the loss of one single player and get those others playing decent football? Guardiola Solskjaer Ancelotti have all arrested slumps this season, even Scott Parker has managed it. If he can’t turn this around what does that say about Klopp? At the moment though he seems to be more intent on blaming everyone else (as are the fans).

FSG will not take kindly to having the finger pointed at them when Klopp was the one who sold all their youth players plus Lovren to buy Thiago and Jota. They invested more than any other team has in the history of football in a single year when they bought Van Dijk Allison Keita Fabinho Oxlade Chamberlain. That’s about 280 million in a single calendar year. They’ve propped up wages for Allison Van Dijk Henderson and the front three at eye watering levels. I think they’d expect that any half decent manager could get a tune out of the players at his disposal.

He can put out this team.

Allison

TAA Matip Fabinho Robertson

Henderson

Thiago Wijnaldum

Salah Firmino Mane


Why is he moaning about injuries? I’d kill for Everton to be able to put their best line up out most weeks only missing one player. We’ve had any three or four of Allan Gbamin Digne James Richarlison missing most games this season.

 

[PhilM]

Frank Lampard @4:11 in this clip from his presser seems to agree, and doesn't sound like he is confident he will be there




Ferguson on the other hand always seemed to have an eye on the following year and was quoted that he always looked to see what needed changing up even after they swept the board each year.

Surely it's a balance between the two: looking at here and now with an eye on the future too?