You forget the >3 SD from the Mean of good fortune for 2nd legs at home.. probability about 1/8000 that they have about 70% of 2nd legs at home (and that's not counting the ones they earned by winning groups).Just annoys me that it’s not even a challenge for them. They’ve just been obliterating Porto most seasons. Bayern turned up at probably their lowest ebb and they destroyed them. 5-1 agaisnt City over two legs, 5-0 up against Roma in a semi final. Spurs in a final. 4-0 against Barca despite missing Salah and Firmino. This is supposed to be Europe’s best in the latter stages of the CL and they either draw some team that’s won a lottery to get there or a european giant fading badly and they absolutely destroy them. The tie against Atletico was arguably the only one that get like a CL knockout tie evenly balanced could go either way rather than just a procession for Liverpool blitzing a team all over the park with the tie over after 45 mins.