Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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MikelsGoat said:
8,000+ people a week and some clowns still consider it just the flu.

Heartbreaking.
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The 17% update of tests for people with symptoms is a worrying figure because it'd suggest that the actual level of infections is much higher.

Yesterday, 37,892 cases were recorded so we could easily scale that up when you consider 100% uptake versus the average % test.
 

Covid could continue to spread for decades - scientist​

Coronavirus will continue to spread "probably for decades to come", a scientist says.
Paul Hunter is a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, where researchers have modelled the effectiveness of the UK immunisation programme, taking into account the new, more transmissible variant.
He tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Essentially we found that it’s going to be pretty much impossible to get to a level that we have herd immunity either with the vaccination or indeed with natural infection because of the chance that people will have second infections after their first one."
Herd immunity is when a large enough proportion of the population is immune to a disease that it provides indirect protection to others who are not, limiting its spread.
Prof Hunter says there is "no doubt" the vaccination programme will make "a huge difference" and help life get back towards normal.
“We do know that the vaccines are very good at stopping people getting severe illness and dying but don’t really know how well the vaccines work to stop the spread of infection," he says, adding that this means there will continue to be a risk to people who have not had the jab.
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The caveat to this should be that, while it may be still be here, the vaccination programme should make it manageable in terms of he general population.
 
Cases are down 87,000 on this time last week.

While we have tested 3.1% less, there is no way that 87,000 out of 126,000 people would have tested positive.

Look at the below rates. A 37,892 daily average from 640,856 average daily tests is 5.5-6%.

So had we not had the 126,515 drop off, we're looking at tops another 7,590 (that's 6%) positive cases, so still a drop of approx 80,000.

Screenshot 2021-01-22 at 09.47.49.webp
 
PhilM said:
The 17% update of tests for people with symptoms is a worrying figure because it'd suggest that the actual level of infections is much higher.

Yesterday, 37,892 cases were recorded so we could easily scale that up when you consider 100% uptake versus the average % test.
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This will always be the case unless you test the whole population each day.

They test about 4m a week at the moment so thats about 7% or so of the population. A lot of the same people will be tested regularly for work etc.

I've still never had a test and I'd imagine a lot of people probably haven't. Its probably still in 6 figures per day for infections in the UK at the moment.
 
grandjoeblue said:
This will always be the case unless you test the whole population each day.

They test about 4m a week at the moment so thats about 7% or so of the population. A lot of the same people will be tested regularly for work etc.

I've still never had a test and I'd imagine a lot of people probably haven't. Its probably still in 6 figures per day for infections in the UK at the moment.
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but then in that case mate the mortality rate is probably way below 2% and probably far closer to 1%. Nobody is dying with COVID in their system and not getting counted among the statistics unless god forbid they're in a car accident etc.

I agree with you, btw, but overall we can only go off the official figures, and those figures show that over the last 7-10 days there has been a gradual drop in cases. There are some anomalies and spikes, but overall, a decline.
 
BlueToff said:
but then in that case mate the mortality rate is probably way below 2% and probably far closer to 1%. Nobody is dying with COVID in their system and not getting counted among the statistics unless god forbid they're in a car accident etc.

I agree with you, btw, but overall we can only go off the official figures, and those figures show that over the last 7-10 days there has been a gradual drop in cases. There are some anomalies and spikes, but overall, a decline.
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I agree the mortality rate is definitely around 1%. I think its likely to be somewhere between 0.5-0.8%. Anyone who works the mortality out from confirmed cases is not using accurate data. There were very low cases in the first wave. In fairness most statisticians believe its around 1%. Imperial stated it was 1% in around October I believe.

They're missing at least 50%+ of cases even now when testing is at a high level. As you've said you can't really miss deaths so that skews the numbers massively.
 
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