Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[tsubaki]

Still cant believe we can put a man on the moon and clone a sheep but cant make a test that detects antibodies of a virus.

They need to hurry up - be nice to get all the clear and be able to see my Ma in the coming weeks its crap this time of year not being able to see close family.

TBF to get a disposable test that can detect antibodies is really, really complicated and probably going in the wrong direction anyway. They'd be better off getting an antibody test and using normal testing equipment (but perforce having a lot more of that so there arent the delays).

 

[BlueToff]

Still cant believe we can put a man on the moon and clone a sheep but cant make a test that detects antibodies of a virus.

They need to hurry up - be nice to get all the clear and be able to see my Ma in the coming weeks its crap this time of year not being able to see close family.

Aye it's crap for everybody. Totally accept this is what needs to be done to manage the situation for the NHS to be able to handle it though. And even when it peaks you'll imagine we'll need another 3 weeks (at least) in this type of lockdown to ensure no immediate spike back up in cases.

But even that takes us through to what, May 10th (ish)? I don't think we'll be looking at lifting anything totally until June at least, but if - it's a big if - the above scenario plays out and we see some results, and if Denmark/Austria etc and whichever other Euro countries gradually lift lockdown in a measured way have success, there's nothing to say we couldn't follow and have stuff running mainly back to a normalish standard in early June.

There'll still have to be procedures in place etc and I imagine social distancing and stuff will be so ingrained by then (as it is already anyway) that it'll be second nature for people to carry it on.

 

[ramacca]

@roydo it's gone *ping* again

*ping*. What do you think of allowing planes to still come into the country and the passengers are not tested for coronavirus?

 

[summerisle]

lol

 

[ramacca]

Well, well shoving one of the 'kingdoms' under the bus.

Video: BBC News says Scottish CV deaths higher than reported – but leaves out ONS saying Tories under-reporting by half

9 confirmed suffering CV in care home in Romford and double figures in Liverpool as 15 die in Luton home

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

A sharp drop in accident-and-emergency admissions worries medics

More hand-washing could explain fewer stomach bugs. It is unlikely to explain fewer heart attacks

www.economist.com

Interesting that A&E numbers are massively down at the moment.

I can understand that. 3 weeks ago I fell off a ladder, Wrecked my right elbow. At best I reckon I've got major elbow ligament damage. At worst I reckon I broke it.
I didn't goto A&E due to all this CV 19 kicking off.

If it is a broken elbow they would just strap it anyway and send me on my way with painkillers. Same with ligament damage, so I decided not to go to A&E.

I've got a heavy strapping on it and will wait it out. Hurts like crazy, but pain is easing day by day.

 

[Catfish Blues]

For me, very simple maths and logic would indicate that even a small primary school (200 children) could be a place where the virus could spread easily.

All the staff, those children and their parents dropping them off would all be within close proximity on at least two occasions: that's not social distancing is it?

I know my wife, who works in school finance, has had her school open this week as a hub, like another fifty schools in the city, and staff on a rota with no PPE.

But yeah... a holiday.

There is some logic in at least a partial reopening of primary schools being one of the first things to be reopened post lockdown

• The children are very unlikely to be anything except carriers and
• Their parents are more likely than not to be relatively young and in good health

The obvious risks involve exposing older teachers, and teachers and parents with underlying health conditions to the virus, so you'd keep the at risk teachers away and also keep the children off school who have at risk parents.

You'd also need to keep the kids away from their grandparents. That scenario obviously has other weaknesses associated with it, but I've heard worse plans.

 

[TheBigIguana]

We don't and can't know that just yet.

I'm not one for setting targets but it's not even 4 weeks ago that our CMOs were saying the peak was 12 weeks off. I mean, they were completely wrong, as even with the measures to 'delay' it (which have been put in place) the peak seems likely to hit us in the coming days.

Let's hope it does tbh. Because if not we're off track with the rest of Europe.

If the peak is next week, that's still over six weeks until June 1.

This time six weeks ago life was normal here.

I'm not saying life will be 'normal' in six weeks' time, btw. I very much doubt it will be. I'd imagine large gatherings etc will all be banned until at least mid-to-late June.

But if we peak next week we could well be looking at (from now) another 4 weeks of lockdown. Depends how much our cases decline and how other countries manage their declines and lifting lockdowns (which we can get an idea from as they're ahead of us on the curve).

Also, at this stage, the antibodies test is the most important thing.

Testing matters. Even if the level of confirmed infections drops way off, if we aren't testing tons of people every day to track this thing as closely as possible, nothing can go back to normal. If it does we will be right back here before the summer ends. The testing level that Germany at is the absolute minimum and the UK and US are not even close.

 

[BlueToff]

Testing matters. Even if the level of confirmed infections drops way off, if we aren't testing tons of people every day to track this thing as closely as possible, nothing can go back to normal. If it does we will be right back here before the summer ends. The testing level that Germany at is the absolute minimum and the UK and US are not even close.

Yes of course it matters. But aren't we already past the point of tracking it in the main? We need to up it, but what we really need is antibody tests too.

Someone who tests positive still faces up to seven days of isolation and 14 for their family/whoever they live with.

In terms of NHS staff we desperately need the antibody tests and then that will be the best thing moving forward to establish just how many people have had this (because there will be a lot)

 

[TheBigIguana]

Yes of course it matters. But aren't we already past the point of tracking it in the main? We need to up it, but what we really need is antibody tests too.

Someone who tests positive still faces up to seven days of isolation and 14 for their family/whoever they live with.

In terms of NHS staff we desperately need the antibody tests and then that will be the best thing moving forward to establish just how many people have had this (because there will be a lot)

Yes we need all of it. Until we can get a handle on who has had it, who has it now and then trace the contacts of everyone who is positive we're stuck in some degree of isolation. Sending people running around as soon as the curve is down without this in place ensures it pops back up.

We get one shot at this, and the idiots in charge don't give me much faith that it'll be executed correctly.

 

[RAFUH]

Replying to 3 people. Is that allowed according to you?

You forgot to add this.

10 minutes ago

The capacity for people to rally round and help others should never ever be underestimated.

He has a point in that posting the same article in the same thread 3 times is at minimum cluttering things up.

 

[RAFUH]

 

[Toast]

Imagine the ' I told you so ' emails being shared by whoever paid for that.
Fair play to you.

 

[ramacca]

Yes we need all of it. Until we can get a handle on who has had it, who has it now and then trace the contacts of everyone who is positive we're stuck in some degree of isolation. Sending people running around as soon as the curve is down without this in place ensures it pops back up.

We get one shot at this, and the idiots in charge don't give me much faith that it'll be executed correctly.

It's unbelievable that planes are still coming into the country and passengers are not being tested. It's like a dog chasing its tail or headless chickens.

 

[BlueToff]

Yes we need all of it. Until we can get a handle on who has had it, who has it now and then trace the contacts of everyone who is positive we're stuck in some degree of isolation. Sending people running around as soon as the curve is down without this in place ensures it pops back up.

We get one shot at this, and the idiots in charge don't give me much faith that it'll be executed correctly.

I haven't read the WHO thing you initially responded to but I'm definitely not suggesting that should be the case. At a minimum I think we'll need 3 weeks of the lockdown we currently have from the point we start to see a sustained decline.

If we follow Italy/Spain etc, then that should start at some point next week and run through to the 5th week of isolation (which here would be the week commencing April 20th).

Let's just say, hypothetically, that happens. So we do another 3 weeks of this lock down from April 20th. From May 11th, we then - as Denmark / Austria are planning to do - gradually ease certain measures as long as the numbers have continued their decline over the previous three weeks. Given Europe has a 'head start' on us, we can also use them as a canary. For example, if Austria's numbers start to spike again a week after they've eased lockdown measures, we'll know we'll have to stay in this lockdown for longer before gradually easing off (so instead of May 11th, it could be May 18th, for example).

Then it'll be a case of slowly and gradually having more things return while at the same time still using social distancing measures, still demanding home working where possible (personally I'd be bringing in measures to encourage that across the board long term as it's just quite a good solution to a lot of issues in general) etc.

That would, in this theoretical scenario, probably place us in mid-to-late June where we could have some real semblance of normality. And perhaps we could say still ban large gatherings until the end of June / first week of July for example.