Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Catfish Blues said:
That's partially right, but the number you're using is wrong.

I forget the exact numbers, but, if you're in your 80's, you have something like a 10% ( or possibly a bit higher ) chance of not seeing out the next 12 months, so it'll be closer to 10% or 20% rather than 60%.

Also, it's not as simple as saying "Your nan was old, so might have died anyway", you're talking averages here. So yes, some COVID related deaths may well not have seen out the year, but you can't tie it down to specific people.

It's also possible that the shielding of 1.5 million vulnerable people will mean that some of that group who might otherwise have died, will now live because they're less likely to be pick up a less serious infection than Coronavirus, which could still have been enough to kill them.
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22% of ICU admissions in US have no co-morbidly which still seems frighteningly high to me for anyone to conclude yet “they were going to die soon anyway” especially as those still in ICU have uncertain outcomes.
 
Tin-Tin said:
Not enough equipment, not ordering ventilators etc, now this.

Looks like they are still going along with their herd immunity strategy but just not saying it out loud. Not one reporter is calling them out

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To be fair, I wasn't taking much notice of what he said, but the medic certainly seemed to be planning for mass testing, as was Harries the other day. The first set of testing that needs to be done post peak is to find out what % of the population has been infected. You don't need to test everyone to get that number, but you will need to test quite a few to get a representative sample.

Once you know the % infected, you can either work out an exit strategy, or keep the lockdown in place ... depends how widespread it is.
 
Catfish Blues said:
That's partially right, but the number you're using is wrong.

I forget the exact numbers, but, if you're in your 80's, you have something like a 10% ( or possibly a bit higher ) chance of not seeing out the next 12 months, so it'll be closer to 10% or 20% rather than 60%.

Also, it's not as simple as saying "Your nan was old, so might have died anyway", you're talking averages here. So yes, some COVID related deaths may well not have seen out the year, but you can't tie it down to specific people.

It's also possible that the shielding of 1.5 million vulnerable people will mean that some of that group who might otherwise have died, will now live because they're less likely to be pick up a less serious infection than Coronavirus, which could still have been enough to kill them.
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But it's not just the age, the life expectancy with the underlying condition was taken into account. If you are 80 with heart disease then it's alot more likely that your time is sooner than an 80 year old without other conditions.
 
LinekersLegs said:
22% of ICU admissions in US have no co-morbidly which still seems frighteningly high to me for anyone to conclude yet “they were going to die soon anyway” especially as those still in ICU have uncertain outcomes.
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If you combine that with those in ICU that then go on to die, it's overwhelmingly with co-morbid conditions. Not exclusively, but it is a huge factor.

And that's before you even take into account those who had completely undiagnosed conditions when they died of COVID-19, which will be quite a few.
 
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