2024/25 Abdoulaye Doucoure

[Rita_Poon]

I've mentioned it a little above, but this is the core of Moneyball. Often people think moneyball is buying young foreign players (often for big money). Moneyball is really about taking decisions that may look strange, but give you statistically better outcomes.


Like imagine that scene with the scouts. People saying "he can't pass" "he's 33" "he's lumbered" "his technique is bad" and Brad Pitt saying "we win 57% more points with him in the team" (that's a made up number but you get my gist). For whatever reason, he clearly makes a difference.

My own view, is Dyche will probably have to rotate his midfielders, including in game, which is not natural to him, but if he can get it right, we can be really effective in that area. Yesterday Gana coming off the bench really helped, and we can potentially get more out of him if he isn't playing 90 minutes each game.

Finally, finally! It's Brad Pitt's fault. Everyone else has had a turn.

 

[Igrok]

Spectacularly clumsy player… dun even know if can call him a player…

 

[Osamabindiesel]

I’d be glad to have him if he (like Ashley Young and Coleman for that matter) was used for cover. He has his uses- he can score some vital goals and cover for your fullbacks. We just have better players in his positions. He is a “comfort” option for Dyche and that is why he continues to start. In that sense he is stealing minutes (he did have a great game last week though to be fair to him). Not so much this week

 

[Amokachi1995]

There's a danger of false equivalence though. Football isn't played from the repeated positions and scenarios of sports such as baseball. A percentage increase in points may be there if you look for it but unless you can repeat those same games without Doucore then it's very difficult to seriously argue he's definitely the cause. You can however point to obvious weaknesses or strengths in his performances.

There's also a legitimate concern that you're hitting a glass ceiling with limited players like Doucore or Gueye in and around the first team. They're both players who are fading physically and I'd imagine are only going to struggle at top flight level going forward.

Not sure you can use Brad Pitt and a made up number to show he clearly makes a difference that is statistically significant. A big reason the 'Moneyball' Oakland team was successful is that they had traditional star players in that team and the whole Moneyball legend is fairly exaggerated on the back of a narratively unreliable movie that ignores a lot of facts in favour of dramatic license.

Taking into account statistical data as part of scouting a player is nothing new. They're a useful tool to identify a player worth looking at but not something to base a decision on.

There's something in the stat in that we tend to get more points when he plays. We get fewer points when Keane plays, which is also instructive.

Since he's come in, the opposition hasn't run through the middle of us as much including Eze yesterday.

That being said, I think your wider point that we need to move on from Doucoure and Gueye is correct. Coleman and Young as well whilst we're having a clear out.

 

[Gilbert..]

Unbeaten in 2 games since dyche brought him back.
He's staying in the side for the rest of the season.

 

[kenada_blue]

Spectacularly clumsy player… dun even know if can call him a player…

He's an example of a modern footballer in some respect. Athlete first, technicals later. Is useful.

 

[Mase]

technically he’s awful, but his running ability seems to add something that we need. I think we’d be a lot better off with garner or Tim for possession but we are not very good at keeping the ball

 

[Rita_Poon]

technically he’s awful, but his running ability seems to add something that we need. I think we’d be a lot better off with garner or Tim for possession but we are not very good at keeping the ball

That ability to hassle for the ball and get to a 50 50. It's no good getting the bounce of the ball our way if there's no one to take possession, run it down, get a foot to, put the challenge in and win. Covering ground and protecting the defence is the Dyche method, it means lots of hard work and players busting guts to deny the opposition time and space. There's enough quality in the league to exploit those chances when they are offered so defending as a unit becomes key. He aint pretty and he's never winning the ballon d'or, but that sounds like Dyche all over. Graft!

 

[maccavennie]

needs shifting in Jan

Fixed

 

[ClausThomsen]

There's something in the stat in that we tend to get more points when he plays. We get fewer points when Keane plays, which is also instructive.

Since he's come in, the opposition hasn't run through the middle of us as much including Eze yesterday.

That being said, I think your wider point that we need to move on from Doucoure and Gueye is correct. Coleman and Young as well whilst we're having a clear out.

I thought there was a lot of space through the middle yesterday in the first half - especially behind the midfield 2 and in front of the defence. Changed in the second half which suggests it was to do with positioning rather than anything uniquely individual.

Has a great ability to harangue, harass and brings size and strength. All good qualities but nothing I'd point to statistically in that 'Moneyball' sense. His ability to trip over a ball when running from deep is just as likely to damage winning prospects.

 

[NathDogg]

He’s a worker, and he will always have a go, but he isn’t a cm in the system we played on Saturday. If he’s there against Newcastle it could get ugly for us.

Would like to see garner in with mangala and Tim off the bench when legs are going, now that Dyche has remembered he has subs he can use.

 

[Harryflashman]

Unbeaten in 2 games since dyche brought him back.
He's staying in the side for the rest of the season.

A couple of years ago I was spending some time with a top level team coach , from a different sport , and he was talking about how some players just confound their own performance stats and whatever you see on post match reports you know and it’s clear that when they play the team win games . There was a specific player in his team he was on about but he was adamant that the data proved that whatever the performance data looked like in the paper the next day the statistical evidence was his time won matches when this fella played . For whatever reason , and I don’t think I really know why , Doucoure seems to be that bloke at Everton .

We seem to win a lot more matches with him on the field , like I said I don’t know why but it certainly seems to be the case . So I’d imagine you’re right and he’ll stay in the team .

 

[PeregrineT]

Where 90% of possession goes to die. Dont confuse the improved results with Keane being benched and bad opponents with Doucoure doing anything. Correlation is not = causation.

Keane: 5 matches = 1 point
No keane: 1 match = 3 points.

 

[catcherintherye]

There's a danger of false equivalence though. Football isn't played from the repeated positions and scenarios of sports such as baseball. A percentage increase in points may be there if you look for it but unless you can repeat those same games without Doucore then it's very difficult to seriously argue he's definitely the cause. You can however point to obvious weaknesses or strengths in his performances.

There's also a legitimate concern that you're hitting a glass ceiling with limited players like Doucore or Gueye in and around the first team. They're both players who are fading physically and I'd imagine are only going to struggle at top flight level going forward.

Not sure you can use Brad Pitt and a made up number to show he clearly makes a difference that is statistically significant. A big reason the 'Moneyball' Oakland team was successful is that they had traditional star players in that team and the whole Moneyball legend is fairly exaggerated on the back of a narratively unreliable movie that ignores a lot of facts in favour of dramatic license.

Taking into account statistical data as part of scouting a player is nothing new. They're a useful tool to identify a player worth looking at but not something to base a decision on.

Yea that's really interesting mate, lots of food for thought.

You are right, I think football is very complex, and it's difficult to prove with absolute certainty. But there is quite a large dataset with Doucoure now. It could be coincidence, but in general I think things are coincidences.

Re ceiling, yes totally agree, their best years are ahead of them. In fairness to both I think they've added things to their game to ensure that the fall off maybe hasn't been as dramatic as it could have been, but we are defenitely losing value all the time with them. I do think you minimise that if you utilise them correctly, with good rotation. A lot of that drop off is physical, and you probably see it with both when they are flogged every game. I think this is a big problem of this manager as well, who doesn't really rotate either in game or game to game well enough.

In terms of Moneyball, in fairness I made a number up as I can't be bothered to calculate it, but what isn't made up is we do significantly better with Doucoure in the team than out. And the difference is statistically significant. You can make the case it's not really relevant to Doucoure, which is fair enough and probably fits the "eye test". I'm more inclined to follow statistics, which is a broader philosophical thing. I'm not saying I'm automatically right and another view is wrong, but the team is statistically better with him in it.

 

[catcherintherye]

I noted last season that some of Gana's most impactful performances actually came off the bench. Ditto Gomes.

It's a part of the game that we definitely don't give that much airtime to, or generally understand that much about based on the more intricate details of player performance.

Totally mate. I think the manager doesn't really do well at this. He's not a good in game manager at all. We have quite a large number of older players, who can probably do a job partially on games, but he just doesn't do it well enough.

Like Gana could probably be used a lot as a finisher in games for us. But I don't think Dyche sees it that way at all.