A Statistical Analysis of Koeman's Southampton

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I think of the three senior centre halves at the club currently, he is the most likely to be sold this summer. The absolute antithesis of a Koeman defender

I thought a lot about each of our defenders and I have to say none of the 3 fit into a perfect model of what he was, but all 3 have potential.

Mori is dominant in the air. Jagielka is quite good at blocking and intercepting while Stones reads the game well and can switch the play. It will be interesting to see what he does.
 

That would surprise a few people if we signed Delaney, Dann, Fellaiani and Benteke with our 100m.
I would be devastated if we signed any of them, average to good players are not going to take us to where we want to be
 
Mods if you feel this will be better served in the Koeman thread feel free to move, however it is more of an analysis of how Southampton varied from ourselves and what impact that may have on personnel. Who may benefit etc. All stats evidenced are available at:

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2015-2016

Overall the information I got from the website was positive. In many ways you would expect it to be so, given Souuthampton finished 5 places above us in the league you would expect them to have better stats. However there were 1 or two things that surprised me and I think will add to positive changes. All stats are per game unless otherwise specified.

1) Defensively proficiency.
This will come as quite obvious. Southampton were 7th on shots conceded (12.2) while Everton were 18th on 14.6. We were also 20th on the amounts of fouls committed (ie we hardly committed any while Southampton were 7th).
The other interesting stat was interceptions, Southampton 6th while Everton were 19th (18.6 v 13.4 respectively).

2) Aerial Prowess.
This was the one that surprised me most. Southampton had won the most aerial duals in a game and Everton were towards the bottom. When you couple that with Southampton being 2nd on crosses into the box (25) against Evertons 21 (joint 6-11th) you see a clear pattern of attack. This is also linked to a higher proportion of shots coming in the box (3rd highest in the league with 58%).
In simplistic terms the stats shows Koemans Southampton got crosses into the box and relied on attempts at goal from headers to those crosses.

3) Playing higher up the pitch
Again a key difference here, Southampton spend 30% in their opponents third (joint 3rd) and Everton spend 30% in our own last third (17th and actually 19th when taking home stats).

4) Possession Similar (though more consistent home V away)
It won’t come as a surprise to see us ahead of Southampton re possession. 51.1 V 49.8% were the difference, so 8th V 11th. Not a massive difference though. What is interesting is their possession remains similar home V away (around the 50% mark) whereas we are more 53% home and 48% away.

To summarise the numbers I think there are a lot of positives here. Many have noted the importance of finding a balance between Moyes & Martinez. That is what the numbers display. Possession is not thrown out of the window, but is reduced slightly. I think the way we played at home, high possession and playing in our own third will go. Koeman will look to get us higher up the pitch into the opponents third.


This does fit with his performance on MNF football where he spoke of the need to have a big lad like Pelle who has a good touch, who you can hit diagonally. While I don’t think this will be the first option (as many complained at under Moyes in how we used Fellaini) we will mix it up a bit and again look to have the balance I allude too.

The Aerial prowess change will be the biggest transformation. I think he will look to bring more height into the side. Strikers we look to buy I imagine will be big lads. At Southampton he went for Long, Pelle & Austin all of them very good in the air. That alongside getting more balls into the box.

Finally I think the interceptions stats show that we will look to win the ball higher up the pitch which again will be a positive for fans.

Overall it is good reading I think we will see a return in style which was quite similar to Joe Royle Side around the 1995/6 years. We will play and pass the ball when we can but also look to get crosses into the box as a central strategy alongside putting the opponents under pressure when we don’t have the ball.

Obviously please come back to me with who you think this will affect positively or negatively. The obvious names that spring to mind for positives are Deulofeu & Baines. Koeman likes crosses and that is their natural game. I think he will like Mori as he is quite dominant in the air.

For those with difficulty, I think Lennon will find it difficult as his end product in wide areas is a real weakness. I think McCarthy has a big season as Koeman like either physical or technical players in central midfield (Wanyama or Claissie) I’m not sure which McCarthy fits.

The other one who may struggle is Barkley. Koemans teams don’t dribble much (lowest in the league for this) and it’s one of Ross’s strengths. He seems to like strength and legs in his front 2 which at present isn’t his strength. Maybe he will need to drop back to be a deep lying playmaker? All food for though. I am a massive fan of Ross so not writing him off at all.

Overall though I think Koeman will focus on tightening us up defensively, I wouldn’t expect too much more than this this season. We will be more up and at them at Goodison and will throw more balls into the box. In general I think we will respond well to that.
Good read .
 
We may see a future for Garbutt. Who has a bloody good cross on him. We could get Felli back!

I meant to put him and missed him out. Of the 4 left backs we now have, I suspect Baines will be first choice and wouldn't be surprised to see Garbutt be second choice because as you say he has a wand of a second foot. What this means for Galloway/Oviedo I am not sure. Maybe Oviedo will be allowed to leave?
 
Great post @catcherintherye really enjoyed reading that and provided some of the evidance base for my own thoughts, i think we will see players who are bigger in the side he likes his height and physicality seems to me to be throughout the pitch. I wonder are smaller players like say Baines/Besic/Cleverley at risk.


His approach is a direct one, seems very similar to Moyes to me, what impresses me is some of the numbers the support players at Southampton post in terms of goals and assists - something that was lacking under Moyes. Tadic, Mane have posted some top goal and assist stats int he couple of years hes been there.


I think he will have a lower tolerence for the likes of Stones, Barkley and Lukaku and how they have been indulged under Martinez, no bad thing in my eyes and they should come on as a result. I have also noticed he is not afraid to drop high profile players, Pelle, Mane and Tadic have all been victims of this.

It interesting to throw Lukaku into the mix, his first touch isnt great and his aerial ability is prob the weekest part of his game, think part of the success of the style that he employes is making the ball stick in the final third in the first phase once the ball goes in. Im not Lukaku fit into that: it does leave me with other names though: Benteke, Carroll, Giroid just of the top of my head.

Seems all very Moyes like.

Thats for the reply mate. I haven't got comparable stats for Moyes but we can certainly go on what we saw. I think it's definitely a step back in the Moyes direction particularly Moyes towards the end, with the pressing/defensive organisation being quite key.

I think the important difference may be the use of a target man and using aerial prowess. Rarely in his time did Moyes use target men as strikers. When he first started he had Campbell, then we went to Bent, Beattie, Johnson, Yakubu, Saha before finishing at Jelavic. I would say most of those weren't classic target men.

We generally had quite small teams. I never thought we were massively aerially dominant but got around that defensively by being quite organised. We did put crosses into the box but they were more intricately worked down our left hand side whereas I think we will toss more balls into the box under Koeman.

As for the players I think Baines will be ok as he is good at crossing. I think Cleverley will be massively under risk as (like many of our squad under Martinez) he appears to be neither 1 thing nor another. Basic alongside McCarthy both have big seasons and I think both will have to stamp their authority on the team. He seems to like height and power up front and in his centre backs but is more flexible in midfield. None of his midfield signings fall into "big groc" territory (he inherited Wanyama) but I think he will want 1 dominant central midfield player. That could be McCarthy or Besic but they will have to up their game.

I think he will have a hard approach with the younger players. They may not like that but if they go along with it it could be the making of them. If they all stay Barkley, Stones & Deulofeu will either be international regular in 18 months or they will go a similar way to Rodwell. I don't think any can meander along on potential for too much longer. I don't think he will placate anyone though but after the season they've had thats the last thing they need.

Lukaku is a funny one. I think our style will be similar to Royle in 96. The big thing Royle did was turn Ferguson around and play to his strengths. Lukaku is performing to a high standard already. However he can get even better. As indicated in another post I suspect we will see him being given support.

In the Premier League Benteke would be an obvious shout (I can't see it happening). Pelle may also come and Giroud would fit perfectly as he has a good touch. Other than that there isn't a lot. Outside of that you have Milik or Slimani.
 

Thats for the reply mate. I haven't got comparable stats for Moyes but we can certainly go on what we saw. I think it's definitely a step back in the Moyes direction particularly Moyes towards the end, with the pressing/defensive organisation being quite key.

I think the important difference may be the use of a target man and using aerial prowess. Rarely in his time did Moyes use target men as strikers. When he first started he had Campbell, then we went to Bent, Beattie, Johnson, Yakubu, Saha before finishing at Jelavic. I would say most of those weren't classic target men.

We generally had quite small teams. I never thought we were massively aerially dominant but got around that defensively by being quite organised. We did put crosses into the box but they were more intricately worked down our left hand side whereas I think we will toss more balls into the box under Koeman.

As for the players I think Baines will be ok as he is good at crossing. I think Cleverley will be massively under risk as (like many of our squad under Martinez) he appears to be neither 1 thing nor another. Basic alongside McCarthy both have big seasons and I think both will have to stamp their authority on the team. He seems to like height and power up front and in his centre backs but is more flexible in midfield. None of his midfield signings fall into "big groc" territory (he inherited Wanyama) but I think he will want 1 dominant central midfield player. That could be McCarthy or Besic but they will have to up their game.

I think he will have a hard approach with the younger players. They may not like that but if they go along with it it could be the making of them. If they all stay Barkley, Stones & Deulofeu will either be international regular in 18 months or they will go a similar way to Rodwell. I don't think any can meander along on potential for too much longer. I don't think he will placate anyone though but after the season they've had thats the last thing they need.

Lukaku is a funny one. I think our style will be similar to Royle in 96. The big thing Royle did was turn Ferguson around and play to his strengths. Lukaku is performing to a high standard already. However he can get even better. As indicated in another post I suspect we will see him being given support.

In the Premier League Benteke would be an obvious shout (I can't see it happening). Pelle may also come and Giroud would fit perfectly as he has a good touch. Other than that there isn't a lot. Outside of that you have Milik or Slimani.

Everything you said was great and then you mentioned Benteke... the guy is awful
 
Sent this by a Saints fan. A lot if it reads like kopite style revisionism but here it is :

The following piece was gleamed from a Saints Web post and is currently doing the rounds on Saints sites..
I wonder if this info is 'leaked' on purpose by the club to state their position in this?

At the end of the season, Koeman verbally agreed to a new contract with Saints, even down to such details as what players would be leaving [Wanyama (most likely to Spurs), Pelle (most likely to Lazio), Juanmi (to Sociadad, already done) lol, I didn't even know he had gone! and Mane (most likely to Man. Utd)] -- as well as discussing our transfer targets into the Club. This was all verbally agreed upon, leaving the finer details of Ron's actual contract itself to be sorted by his agent and settled when he returned from [his first] holiday.

Whilst he was away however, Everton approached Ronald's [now former] Agent, Guido Albers, to sound him out on Ronald's interest in taking up the Everton Job. His agent, taking Ronald at his word - "I like to honour my contract, I like to shtay at Saints" - [bear in mind that the agent had been involved in negotiating Ronald's new Saints contract, and therefore believed that he wished to stay] flatly turned down the Everton approach on behalf of Ronald, and instead put forward the name of another of his clients, Frank De Boer, who was indeed interested in the Everton job. [Two agent pay-days for the price of one!] lou_wink2

Everton, having already been turned down by their first choice, Unai Emery from Sevilla [who is off to PSG] were determined to get their second choice [Ronald Koeman] -- and so used Dutch agent Rob Jansen to approach Ronald with an "offer he could not refuse" -- i.e. £6-7 mill a year, and £100m transfer kitty to splash. Ronald was furious that his own agent [Albers] had refused the offer without even speaking to him first, and sacked him, taking on Rob Jansen in his place. And here is where things get interesting.

Koeman was not entirely dishonest -- as he wasn't really that interested in the Everton job. Who would be, when you've just got your team into European football for the second year running, already enjoy substantial backing from your board, the adoration of your loyal fan-base -- and Everton are nowhere? But what Koeman wanted to do, was to use this interest and concrete offer as a bargaining tool when he returned from his holiday, to say to the Saints Board "this is the kind of 'ambition' I am talking about". He wanted to "use" the Everton interest to get himself more spending money with Saints -- but he grossly overestimated his own "value" to the Saints Board.

For quite a while now -- Saints have not been entirely happy with Koeman. Many of the agreements he had previously made when he first signed, he had not been honouring. The style of football, formation, and most importantly -- the much vaunted "pathway" to the First Team from our famed Academy -- which under Ronald has been said inside the Club to have become "blocked". His attitude toward our young players, never bothering to involve himself with the Academy or even watch their games [he sees himself very much as a "First Team Manager only" whereas we want our manager to take a keen interest in helping develop our burgeoning talent], often discouraging them, blankly stating that most of them are simply not good enough, and at one point launching into a very nasty tirade of abuse to young Matty Targett, that is said to have stunned those who were there in its cutting spitefulness and completely unnecessary severity. The "esteemed" Ronald Koeman callously tore a sensitive young lad to shreds in front of all his mates, and has since been widely regarded as a complete [Poor language removed].

Ronald Koeman, despite his very well presented and controlled public image in the media, is not particularly well liked by many at the Club, to make a sweeping understatement. His aloofness and arrogance on the training ground, his unapproachability, and tendency to snap at players and speak to them in a disrespectful tone has not gone down well. Mane, JWP, Harry Reed, and Tadic in particular have an immense dislike of Ronald Koeman, and others only tolerate his tactless approach as they're regularly in the Team, were enjoying an element of success under him, and don't want to rock the boat. But you get the general idea.

We are also greatly peturbed at some of Ronald's training methods, i.e the lack and short duration of them, the low intensity, and lack of commitment to training in general. He gives the players a lot of time off, and is prone to "disappearing on golfing breaks" when we feel that he should be spending his time coaching our players!

The Board have been questioning a lot about his management style and not honouring his commitments to playing "The Southampton Way" and his stifling of the pathway for our young players for a while now -- but whilst he has been enjoying success and has the firm backing of the fans, they have been loathe to take any firm course of action. Ronald got very lucky during our disasterous run of form over the Christmas period, where we lost seven out of nine games, and we were persisting in that horrendous hoofball style of football, lumping long balls up to a woefully out of form [yet constantly picked anyway] Pelle, and privately among the Board, questions were being asked by some, of whether to get rid of Koeman then. But as I say, he got lucky: Pelle got injured, and Ronald was forced to play the excellent Shane Long [who he previously never game a proper chance to show his qualities], and change back to a style of play more suited to our philosophy. Shlong pretty much saved Koeman's job at that time.

So that's the background. Ron thought his "gravitas" in the game deserved a certain respect, and coupled with the success he has brought us -- he badly misjudged his importance to our Board. He thought he could use the Everton interest, believing his value and position at the Club to be unassailable -- to effectively blackmail the Board into agreeing completely to his own terms to sign a new deal. It wasn't so much about the personal money on offer, but more with getting more to spend on new players than was on offer -- and forcing Sadio Mane to stay again against his will. Sadio hates Koeman [the phrase used (by Sadio) was "[Poor language removed] arrogant asshat"], and the irony is, we now have a higher likelihood of keeping him [Mane], without Koeman around. Not to say that will definitely happen, just that it might.

Koeman gave us an ultimatum, that we could either make him an offer much closer to what Everton were offering -- or he would simply not sign the new deal, and see out the last year of his contract as promised. This effectively massively backfired on him, as our Board were really not that fussed. We have other excellent candidates on our shortlist who we feel would stick much more closely to our Club philosophies, and therefore be a better fit with the Club -- and as stated -- many players who'd be happy to see the back of him.

So the Saints Board effectively called his bluff, and said sorry Ron -- either you sign the deal you've already verbally agreed to -- or you can take the Everton job and we'll get in someone who will do things the way we want, according to our Club philosophy. What we won't have, is a "lame duck" manager seeing out the last year of his contract, when what we want, is for someone committed to our new Five-Year Plan and hungry to build on what we've already achieved. Ronald simply wasn't showing the kind of commitment we were looking for, so we gave him the choice to either do so, or [Poor language removed] off to Everton. Lol.

We gave him two weeks to decide what to do; sign the new contract, or go [Poor language removed] himself. Ron stormed off in a huff on holiday number two after this, and we shall await the final outcome. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that he yet may end up staying, so don't burn any effigies just yet -- although to be honest -- I suspect that bridge has now been burnt sufficiently from both ends to be unlikely in the extreme. Though, stranger things have happened -- like Ronald Koeman being interested in a club like Everton for example, lol. lou_wink2

And this is why the whole
sorry saga has been playing out now for so long. Ronald doesn't really want the Everton job -- but his own duplicitous conduct has ended up forcing him down a path he was entirely not expecting! He badly misjudged the situation and his own worth to the Club -- and thought that we would bend to his will, to keep such an esteemed figure at the Club at all costs. And now -- if he doesn't take the Everton job -- he looks like a complete [Poor language removed], as he [almost certainly] won't be staying at Saints. Well, he looks like a complete [Poor language removed] either way now, whatever he does, lol.

He's completely blown the reputation he carefully established for integrity, decency, and being a man of honour and respect.

Another thing, is that we will not budge on the finer details of his compensation package with Everton. Some of which (including guarantees that they will not make offers for any Southampton players once Koeman arrives) are proving to be a real sticking point, as is the contract on offer to his brother Erwin, and the fact that both Erwin and particularly Jan Kluitenberg (our fitness coach) are pissed off at Ronald, as they both love being at Saints, and didn't want to leave. Erwin, ultimately, will be loyal to Ron -- but Jan (and his family) really love living in the area, have settled really well here and don't particularly want to leave. (He may yet even end up staying). If Everton do not agree to absolutely everything that Saints want -- we are quite happy to deny Everton permission to take our under contract manager, and essentially "hang him out to dry" for a year whilst his contract runs down, and we'll get on and appoint someone who does want to commit to us fully.

Moving on to that now -- and some details of our shortlist:

Most of the names in the press are not our preferred targets. Don't worry at some of the horriffic options that have been bandied around. The likes of Moyes and McClaren are nowhere near consideration. I've heard Pellegrini linked in the media, and he is on our list, but only as an albeit very decent back up option if we don't get one of our preferred candidates. Eddie Howe I've also seen linked, he is on our long-term watch list of potential managers that is constantly updated, and Les Reed in particular is a big fan -- but overall we don't feel that he yet has the required level of experience or "gravitas" to impress our Europe-bound Squad or the names we're looking to bring into the Club. Frank De Boer has also been linked everywhere, and is on our list -- but some way down the pecking order, as we prefer someone with experience and evidence of implementing their philosophy across a range of Clubs to show consistency in application, whereas Frank has so far only managed at Ajax.

My friend [indicated to the existence of, but] will not reveal the names - of two of our most favoured options at the top of the list, as they do not want to risk alerting other Clubs to the possibility of their availabilty, but other than those, I can say that Murat Yakin [currently out of contract after parting ways with Spartak Moscow] Vitor Pereira [of Fenerbahçe], Paco Jémez [of Rayo Vallecano] are all managers who are thought of very highly by the Club, sharing in our philosophy and playing the brand of football we like, and have long been on our watch-list. So if we don't get one of our two unrevealed names, those three are high on our appreciated list. So too very much is Thomas Tuchel, but the fact he's only just recently replaced Jurgen Klopp at Dortmund crosses him off of our potential targets for now, [he's unlikely to be interested ].
 

Thats for the reply mate. I haven't got comparable stats for Moyes but we can certainly go on what we saw. I think it's definitely a step back in the Moyes direction particularly Moyes towards the end, with the pressing/defensive organisation being quite key.

I think the important difference may be the use of a target man and using aerial prowess. Rarely in his time did Moyes use target men as strikers. When he first started he had Campbell, then we went to Bent, Beattie, Johnson, Yakubu, Saha before finishing at Jelavic. I would say most of those weren't classic target men.

We generally had quite small teams. I never thought we were massively aerially dominant but got around that defensively by being quite organised. We did put crosses into the box but they were more intricately worked down our left hand side whereas I think we will toss more balls into the box under Koeman.

As for the players I think Baines will be ok as he is good at crossing. I think Cleverley will be massively under risk as (like many of our squad under Martinez) he appears to be neither 1 thing nor another. Basic alongside McCarthy both have big seasons and I think both will have to stamp their authority on the team. He seems to like height and power up front and in his centre backs but is more flexible in midfield. None of his midfield signings fall into "big groc" territory (he inherited Wanyama) but I think he will want 1 dominant central midfield player. That could be McCarthy or Besic but they will have to up their game.

I think he will have a hard approach with the younger players. They may not like that but if they go along with it it could be the making of them. If they all stay Barkley, Stones & Deulofeu will either be international regular in 18 months or they will go a similar way to Rodwell. I don't think any can meander along on potential for too much longer. I don't think he will placate anyone though but after the season they've had thats the last thing they need.

Lukaku is a funny one. I think our style will be similar to Royle in 96. The big thing Royle did was turn Ferguson around and play to his strengths. Lukaku is performing to a high standard already. However he can get even better. As indicated in another post I suspect we will see him being given support.

In the Premier League Benteke would be an obvious shout (I can't see it happening). Pelle may also come and Giroud would fit perfectly as he has a good touch. Other than that there isn't a lot. Outside of that you have Milik or Slimani.

Andy Carroll? All jokes aside I think he would be ideal for that many crosses.
 

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