79 points for 4th...is this an anomaly?

[bluestevon]

I would take 72 points right now and progression further in the cups and a genuine good run in the Uefa - hopefully all the way but at the very least to the quarters/semi's

The league is in a constant state of ups and down, if people think that this season is a sign that for here on out it will take 79 points for 4th their living in dreamland, sometimes 79 will get you second other-times 68 will get 4th the same as it has been variable for many many years

 

[Allezfan]

There is a lot of negativity in this thread, surely this season has taught us that the glass ceiling has been raised. We can most definitely qualify for champions league next year, we have a relatively young team who will only get better next year... the school of science.. its on its way back!

I think people are just depressed that we've played so well over the last 2 years and only finished about where we always finish. It's really punishing to make top 4 cos the top teams are picking up so much more points than they used to so you can't make as many mistakes as you used to be able to.

But yeah I agree, Martinez seems like he knows his business and the more time he has at the club the better we should do. I'm pretty optimistic we can improve on this year's performance.

 

[steken1]

I think a lot of the mid-table clubs like Southampton, Palace, Sunderland, Man Utd will take more points from the better sides and make the league more competitive next season.

It's been a season of record low points to go down and unusually high points for top 4/5. I can't see next season being that way.

A manager with flexible tactics and ability to change games will be even more valuable in that environment IMO because just having better players won't always be enough to win!

 

[bluestevon]

Fourth place finishing points score

95/96: Aston Villa - 63
96/97: Liverpool - 68
97/98: Chelsea - 63
98/99: Leeds - 67
99/00: Liverpool 67
00/01: Leeds - 68
01/02: Newcastle - 71
02/03: Chelsea - 67
03/04: Liverpool - 60
04/05: Everton - 61
05/06: Arsenal - 67
06/07: Arsenal - 68
07/08: Liverpool 76
08/09: Arsenal - 72
09/10: Tottenham - 70
10/11: Arsenal - 68
11/12: Tottenham - 69
12/13: Arsenal - 73
13/14 Arsenal - 79

As this list shows in 07/08 it went for 76 points for fourth after the previous years 68 - a rise of 8 points required compared to this season the rise being 6 over the prior one - so actually a bigger jump, the total needed in the next three years then dropped by 4 points a further 2 points then a further 2 points again for three years running

In short, i am pretty certain that similar things were being said about 4th place after the 07/08 season and they proved to be knee-jerking

 

[deipnosophist]

The league is in a constant state of ups and down, if people think that this season is a sign that for here on out it will take 79 points for 4th their living in dreamland, sometimes 79 will get you second other-times 68 will get 4th the same as it has been variable for many many years

In my opinion, the relative vast wealth available to Sky 6 teams will see a continued polarisation in the PL...4-6 teams all 72 and over. Two or three 55-65ish and the rest 30-45.
I hope FFP has a moderating effect on this development but until it is rigidly enforced (ie banning European competition for infracting teams), I fear I am being optimistic.

 

[evilwebby]

Yeah, its just crazy. 79pts would have won you the league on several occasions.

Maybe next year it won't need quite as many points, but I do believe that the general upward trend we have seen since the inception of the EPL will continue. The game is more attacking than ever and draws are much less common now.

 

[sbbefc]

As well as we've done this season a lot of it is down to how terrible the bottom half is. I cant remember a season where so many teams ended up with sub 40 points.

 

[Ozdec]

The EPL is a microcosm of real life. The 'middle class' has been eviscerated. The rich have got immeasurably richer, the poor have stayed that way, and the middle class is well on their way to meeting the latter.
Extrapolating my sociological analogy; in the future, expect the top (ie richest ) clubs to be 80 points or over for CL. Expect the majority ('poor') to be 30-45.
It's the neo-liberal economics 'trickle down theory' (aka serfdom) in action, unfolding before your eyes

This is it - The group of richer clubs gets the media focus = more fans = more sponsors = generally better players = more wins = more media focus etc.

Those clubs expect to win every game outside of their peers and given the gap in depth of playing talent basically do. This means that they are accumulating more points faster- the lesser teams are less able to take points from the richer teams - meaning smaller points totals for them as they are restricted to taking points of each other.

More clubs across Europe now are competing with each other for the top talent and spending larger and larger sums even for 2nd tier players. This means getting a solid striker for 10m is very difficult because anyone half decent is already at Man City, Chelsea, PSG, Real etc etc. 100m for Bale and a large (but murky) fee paid for Neymar by Barca

People look at cash paid as transfer fee but that is not always a reflection of player quality as opposed to the part contract terms, need of both clubs and media perception play. What ultimately secures the better players are the wages you are prepared to pay them rather than the transfer fee paid to buyout their existing contract. While a lower level club may be able to afford a transfer fee they are often more restrictive in the wages they will outlay and this also effects their ability to retain players.

You can see that from the points list posted earlier while there are spikes and dips the general trend is upwards.
Another ramble so to sum up - CL qualification will be mid 70's points for the foreseeable future IMO and possibly more for the next couple of years.

 

[CahillsCornerFlag]

I think if we get the exact same amount of points next season we'll be much much closer to fourth. I reckon all the teams in the top 10 will take loads more points off each other with draws etc, and if we avoid drawing too many games (our biggest problem in the early part of the season) then we'll be thereabouts again.

 

[deipnosophist]

Yeah, its just crazy. 79pts would have won you the league on several occasions.

Maybe next year it won't need quite as many points, but I do believe that the general upward trend we have seen since the inception of the EPL will continue. The game is more attacking than ever and draws are much less common now.

...unless you play for West Brom...they went from 7 draws last season to 15 (which coincidentally equals the highest draw achievers in 2012/13...us and Stoke lol)

 

[barneygumble]

I think it just goes to show, how big the gap between the 'big' clubs really is.

I mean Newcastle were absolutely pony from January onwards, and they still only managed to drop 1 place in that time. Worrying really!

 

[zirc]

In my opinion, the relative vast wealth available to Sky 6 teams will see a continued polarisation in the PL...4-6 teams all 72 and over. Two or three 55-65ish and the rest 30-45.
I hope FFP has a moderating effect on this development but until it is rigidly enforced (ie banning European competition for infracting teams), I fear I am being optimistic.

This is what I worry about. City and Chelsea aren't magically going to stop spending. Arsenal will start soon as their stadium's paid off. Utd will spend. Spurs will spend. Liverpool will be getting the CL cash boost now in addition to being high spenders already. All six of those clubs can blow us and the rest of the league away financially. What's stopping this disparity worsening? FFP? These clubs all have very high turnover so FFP will do nothing besides reinforce the gap...

 

[bizzaro]

This is the very reason why we cannot be disappointed about this season.

Fact is despite ifs and buts we weren't ever going to finish in the top 4 this season, despite what games you want to go back and change. 79 points for 4th is basically setting standards too high for us in future so we need to rely on the standards dropping again or at least more teams dropping points.

Listen, the team that finished 4th this season was top of the league for months. 79 points also suggests come the final game that the team finishing with them was in the title race at some point (barring a runaway leader all season) so as i have said before we had a champions league season, the bar was sadly set even higher. Plus consider the team who finished there splashed out 40 odd million on a world class player just to maintain that, Chelsea spent 40 million at least in january, liverpool spent 50 million in the summer, city spent whatever they spent and the teams below us came up with 100 million and 67 million respectfully.

So yeah, if these are the standards we have to reach, personally i think we will never match them and that could well be the glass ceiling that we are facing. No matter how well we do, the rich boys all do a little bit better.

We should be proud of the team, and face reality that the money in the league will always keep us at arms length

That's Moyes thinking that.

 

[Dymak]

I don't get why people think the RS are going to fade away? They have just qualified for the CL, they will have plenty of cash and will end up strengthening their crap defence. I fully expect them to 'come again' next season.

If United are going to challenge again, which everyone seems to be saying they will, then one hell of a rebuilding job will have to take place in the Summer. I know they don't have Europe but even so, I think they are currently miles behind the RS.

 

[Ashtonian]

That's Moyes thinking that.

lol it is realistic.

Arsenal sign Ozil type players and we sign Traore / McGeady / Kone / Alcaraz / Robles type players. Over time clearly Arsenal will be the better team with this sort of policy.

That is why i'm hoping we really develop our youth and be able to sign good players who can get better and combine them with the youth players to constantly create a great player to fill a hole everytime one is needed. That over time would give us the best chance