Relegation

[TyphooToffee]

thanks, all makes sense now.

so we need to win the next game (-3) 5 - 0 &&^&^?

Glad I wasn't the only one confused

 

[TyphooToffee]

well i never

Who told you? They were told not to!

 

[TraffordBlue]

Well we now have three home games left. Chelsea, Brentford and Crystal Palace.

We all know Chelsea is difficult. Brentford are flying right now and second in the form table.

The away games are Leicester, Watford, Arsenal. We realistically have to beat Watford away.

I think if we won Crystal Palace and Watford we are safe. That would leave Burnley needing eleven points to overhaul us. No chance.

The problem with that is the GD being so close. And with us having to go to Anfield I expect us to finish the season with a worse GD than Burnley. One plus is that we have scored more so I think we have the advantage if we end up with equal GD.

But I am not convinced Burnley are even capable of 3 wins in 7. I could see 2 wins and 3 draws being more realistic for them, giving them 9 more but only 34 points. So we would stay up in your scenario even with us taking a battering to the GD at Anfield.

 

[Julio Ananas]

Opposition Review - it's us vs Burnley shall we say..

Opponent - number of days preparation advantage - opponent's previous game - comments
Everton
24 Liverpool A (-1) Man Utd H 4-0 - Liverpool won easily and this will be a major test for Evertonil on their travels.
1 Chelsea H (+4) Man Utd A - Chelsea look to be slipping, our best hope is they don't show up (tough game on Thurs?) & extra prep time we've had
8 Leicester A (+3) Roma A - some hope here for us with Leicester stretched by the 2nd leg of ECL in Italy
11 Watford A (-1) Palace A - Watford face tough game at Palace - a winnable game even for Everton on their travels!
15 Brentford H (-4) Southampton H - opposition are in top form. A win at this stage seems improbable, a draw possible.
19 Palace H (=) Villa A - Palace are a difficult side to assess on their travels - they can be very effective. But, given Everton's need it's a must win game
22 Arsenal A (-3) Newcastle A

Best Hope of Points...
Watford, Palace, Leicester, Brentford, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool - we could be looking at 2 wins 3 draws and 2 defeats. If Arsenal is a tough game at least it might not matter and if it does then we can hope we have much more to play for than the opposition.

Burnley
21 Southampton H (-1) Arsenal H 1-0 - Burnley found some form in wins over Everton and draw at (tired) West Ham. Southampton just blow hot & cold
24 Wolves H (-13) Newcastle A 0-1 - Wolves are well rested after 2 weeks off. Might work in their favour.
30 Watford A (-1) Man City A - an obvious chance of 3 points. But Watford aren't down yet so might be a battle.
7 Villa H (=) Norwich H - another team blowing hot and cold, decent chance of points
15 Spurs A (+5) Arsenal H - a lot will ride on Spurs form - having played Liverpool away and Arsenal this looks easier for the visitors.
19 Villa A (=) Palace H - tough away game but they are likely to need it more than Villa
22 Newcastle H (-3) Arsenal H - a tough home game but Newcastle are generally inefficient away from home

Best Hope of Points
Watford, Southampton, Newcastle, Villa (H), Wolves, Villa (A), Spurs

There's no doubt Burnley will fancy their chances in most of these games - they need to turn draws into wins though.. 3 wins 3 draws 1 defeat

Current Projection
Everton 38 Burnley 37

Burnley pick up 7 points from the next 3 to go 17th but Everton do likewise to relegate Burnley on the 19th of May. Everton lose at Arsenal (badly!) while already relegated Burnley beat Newcastle.

IF THINK 38 PTS THEN MUST INCLUDE LEEDS

 

[ToffeeDan]

IF THINK 38 PTS THEN MUST INCLUDE LEEDS

Good point. Next 4 games tough - Palace A, City H, Arsenal A, Chelsea H

Would be lovely if they slipped backwards.

 

[Bluestar]

Good point. Next 4 games tough - Palace A, City H, Arsenal A, Chelsea H

Would be lovely if they slipped backwards.

If Leeds win one more they are safe. They are already eight points clear of Burnley.

They have won three of their last six. They won’t get dragged back in.

 

[coollino]

i reckon we'll all come out with a PhD in relegation studies with this thread

 

[Thomasc]

…fancy backing Everton to get beat, especially by that lot. I like a bet but I’m 65 & I’ve never backed against Everton or backed the Reds to win. I don’t even back a horse with Red in the name, it’d give me no pleasure if I won.

Just trying to soften the blow.

I hear you though, I won’t even wear anything red.

 

[NSNO1878EFC]

To finish above Burnley, we now need a combination of 18 points gained by us/dropped by Burnley. So if Burnley lose 3/7 games (and win the other 4), we’ll need 3 wins, if Burnley lose 4/7 games (and win the other 3), we’ll need 2 wins etc.

 

[Toffeelover]

To finish above Burnley, we now need a combination of 18 points gained by us/dropped by Burnley. So if Burnley lose 3/7 games (and win the other 4), we’ll need 3 wins, if Burnley lose 4/7 games (and win the other 3), we’ll need 2 wins etc.

it is looking hopeless.

 

[coollino]

To finish above Burnley, we now need a combination of 18 points gained by us/dropped by Burnley. So if Burnley lose 3/7 games (and win the other 4), we’ll need 3 wins, if Burnley lose 4/7 games (and win the other 3), we’ll need 2 wins etc.

we currently don't need anything, we're 4 points ahead

 

[NSNO1878EFC]

it is looking hopeless.

Wouldn’t say that at the moment, need 6 results out of the 14 combined games left for us and Burnley to go in our favour. Don’t really expect much in the next 2 or 3 games for us and we’ll probably need a bit of help from other teams but nothing is decided yet.

 

[ToffeeDan]

Bookies odds haven't shifted much - it was 71-26 Burnley (best odds) now it's 66-33 (range 66-71 vs 28-35)

Our odds have shortened slightly.

Ladbrokopites (Red decor, horrible) go 15/8 Everton

 

[Yarrgh]

Its painful to say but this team (along with the club in general) objectively deserves relegation. Just rotten all over the gaff. I know you could make the case that if we'd just got few more scrappy draws like last night then we'd be comfortably away from the relegation zone but the fact is that we didn't so we aren't. A part of me just gave up last night. I don't doubt that some of the players sincerely care but the truth is that they're just a horrendous football team. It'll be a miracle if we beat the drop and a horrendous reflection on those who finish beneath us.

I sadly concur with this.

 

[MrGrumpy]

That last gasp point will be a big blow to Burnley mentally(hopefully) as they where sat that thinking a win tomorrow(today now) and we are out the bottom 3. Now they need a win and draw to get out the bottom 3. Should they lose the next 2 that gives us 4 games to get extra points away. Just hope they get beat tonight