I'm looking at the transfer strategy so far (recycled limited cash coming in to buttress certain positions - Konate at CB) and I'd be worried if I'm a Kopite.
They look intent on introducing a PL unproven Elliott, and investing more faith in players like Neco Williams, Tsimakis and Minamino; and retaining players like Keita and Milner. And VVD hasn't been tested again yet and looks like struggling to be fit.
If they sell Salah late in the window they'll be sunk. As it stands I really cant make a case for them getting top 4.
Konate is a talented centre back, but I still can't get over him not being 1st choice at Leipzig. I mean is he currently any better than say Matip or Gomez have been for them? I'm not sure. I'm not sure he will ever be better than those 2. Like them he might become a very good defender if potential is reached, but it keeps them standing still from the decline of Matip and potential decline of Gomez (who has had a lot of injuries).
They have 2 correlating problems to me. The 1st is they have been sting by Covid structurally as badly as anyone as they leveraged on the good times so much (basically giving huge contracts and sign on fees to young players on the assumption the "bull" market would keep going). Now it's turned the other way and they have a lot of players on the books who are just liabilities in real terms. Secondly they have this glut of players with 2 years left. I was warning of this for most of last season, so it's not a new thing, but clearly it's a headache for them.
Without wishing to go over old ground, 2 years is the most challenging period on a contract, as it's really the point a players value starts to depreciate. You look at Wijnaldum and it was quite clear he was leaving once nothing was agreed within that 2 year period (and again I said as much). They have lots of players in that situation together, all in their late 20's/early 30's and I would posit that FSG would have hoped to have made a big profit on some of them which now looks unlikely to happen. Again the Covid crisis have exacerbated this for them, as transfers values have been hit, particularly those in their late 20's and upwards. So their key players have already lost a lot of value, and will likely further depreciate on the contract side unless a new deal can be achieved.
What you get from Pearce's articles is that FSG just see them from a fiscal standpoint as depreciating assets now due to age and are not willing to commit to maintaining the contractual level for them on such an asset. On the players side, they have all achieved a lot in the intervening period of the contracts they have being signed and the next one and probably want a bigger offer. So you have this impasse. As far as I'm aware, no contracts have actually been agreed yet, although Alisson is close. However I don't see them resolving all of the issues by the end of the window, which makes it difficult.
From a players standpoint, I doubt anybody is going to pay them the huge wages AND a significant fee (not the inflated their fans think, but just a significant fee). Clubs like Barca/Real Madrid etc will just start getting in the ear of the players on the proviso that they wind the contract down. I could actually see a world where Henderson goes to an Atletico on a free as a "captain of captains" malarky.
Most of their fans just don't get these dynamics. You will see a lot of "why are we the only ones hit by Covid" and you just want to say to them it's because you leveraged the biggest financial risks which allowed you to benefit from the bull market, but left yourselves most exposed in the bear market. It's as simple as that. They have the 3rd highest wage bill in the history of football at a time when costs have not only not risen but have been greatly reduced.
As for where they sit, you would be somewhat concerned. I have them down for 3rd, again quite a bit behind Chelsea and City who are a long way ahead of them really (post Lampard Chelsea especially so). United if they make the deals they do are also likely to extend their gap on them. They are then left competing with Leicester, Arsenal and Spurs really. What would be awful for them, is if City pay 150m for Kane, and Nuno can spend £250m+ in a depressed window to improve his team, while City just go even further ahead of the competition. That's the real nightmare deal for them.
The question in all of the above, is if Klopp has another tantrum like he did during last season and wrecks another season?