Crypto currency (IF banned from CA)

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LinekersLegs said:
A bounce wasn’t unexpected after the waterfall drop, heck for all I know it could be the start of a multi year 300% rally.

But not really sure why the price action should erase my doubts that a fair part of Bitcoins price is built upon the shaky foundation that a Bahamas office with less than 20 people really does have reserve assets similar to Vangaurd and Amazon.

What am I missing about Tether Kev? To me it stinks to high heaven like Enron did.
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The price action has followed the almost exact cycle as the last two. Irrespective of what the price does, good performance doesn’t discount the risks involved.

Neither does pointing out these risks make you a bear. The lack of pragmatism about the investment risks just tells me people aren’t fully engaged from an investment perspective.

Blockchain is easily my biggest bet in my portfolio. It’s probably 30% of the portfolio which is extreme from a portfolio construction and risk contribution perspective. And is a reflection of my conviction behind blockchain.

But that doesn’t mean I ignore the risks or that I don’t think we are in a bubble at the moment.
 

mill said:
The price action has followed the almost exact cycle as the last two. Irrespective of what the price does, good performance doesn’t discount the risks involved.

Neither does pointing out these risks make you a bear. The lack of pragmatism about the investment risks just tells me people aren’t fully engaged from an investment perspective.

Blockchain is easily my biggest bet in my portfolio. It’s probably 30% of the portfolio which is extreme from a portfolio construction and risk contribution perspective. And is a reflection of my conviction behind blockchain.

But that doesn’t mean I ignore the risks or that I don’t think we are in a bubble at the moment.
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I’d genuinely be interested if you could point me towards some none meme articles on the benefits.

Have to admit I find it the colourful cast of characters involved in crypto make me, perhaps overly, cautious
 
LinekersLegs said:
I’d genuinely be interested if you could point me towards some none meme articles on the benefits.

Have to admit I find it the colourful cast of characters involved in crypto make me, perhaps overly, cautious
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I ignore the internet culture part of it. I’ve got a lot of really good research (and tend to focus on research houses so that it’s not just someone talking their own book) but it’s not something I can share explicitly on here because it’s paid for etc.

The key thing for me, and the main factor in my thought process, is that the disruptive innovation of blockchain itself can persist with or without cryptocurrencies.

Creation of a proper crypto infrastructure is still in its early stages and so there is a lack of clarity in establishing fundamental value between currencies. Given there are over 9000 means you are going to get the kinda vol you’ve seen. And that’s likely continue for the foreseeable.

Environmental concerns are real and could be a deciding factor over which cryptos become successful or not. I think it’s a headwind for something like Bitcoin in particular.

The unwinding of easy money will also be a headwind.

With all that in mind however, there is a growing demand for secure and efficient cash transfer networks, for more effective ways to manage things like trade and settlement, and a whole other multitude of applications. Demographics is also important. 90% of gen z are in emerging markets for instance, where trust in government and stable financial infrastructure is lacking.

Blockchain is going to be great. It’s a really exciting concept. But that does not mean we aren’t in a bubble for crypto. Or that there aren’t risks from an investment perspective.
 
mill said:
I ignore the internet culture part of it. I’ve got a lot of really good research (and tend to focus on research houses so that it’s not just someone talking their own book) but it’s not something I can share explicitly on here because it’s paid for etc.

The key thing for me, and the main factor in my thought process, is that the disruptive innovation of blockchain itself can persist with or without cryptocurrencies.

Creation of a proper crypto infrastructure is still in its early stages and so there is a lack of clarity in establishing fundamental value between currencies. Given there are over 9000 means you are going to get the kinda vol you’ve seen. And that’s likely continue for the foreseeable.

Environmental concerns are real and could be a deciding factor over which cryptos become successful or not. I think it’s a headwind for something like Bitcoin in particular.

The unwinding of easy money will also be a headwind.

With all that in mind however, there is a growing demand for secure and efficient cash transfer networks, for more effective ways to manage things like trade and settlement, and a whole other multitude of applications. Demographics is also important. 90% of gen z are in emerging markets for instance, where trust in government and stable financial infrastructure is lacking.

Blockchain is going to be great. It’s a really exciting concept. But that does not mean we aren’t in a bubble for crypto. Or that there aren’t risks from an investment perspective.
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Yes, absolutely correct, it's an opportunity to make life better for a lot of people in the world.
Eg What Cardano is attempting to do in Africa.
 
mill said:
The price action has followed the almost exact cycle as the last two. Irrespective of what the price does, good performance doesn’t discount the risks involved.

Neither does pointing out these risks make you a bear. The lack of pragmatism about the investment risks just tells me people aren’t fully engaged from an investment perspective.

Blockchain is easily my biggest bet in my portfolio. It’s probably 30% of the portfolio which is extreme from a portfolio construction and risk contribution perspective. And is a reflection of my conviction behind blockchain.

But that doesn’t mean I ignore the risks or that I don’t think we are in a bubble at the moment.
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Agreed, history doesn't repeat itself but it certainly rhymes.

Personally I am going to 'tether up' pretty soon, I think if ETH breaks 2600 then its done.

In this bear market I can see BTC to 10k and ETH to 800

Afterwards they will go on to break all time highs again.

I hope no one here is leveraged as you will get rekt
 

DuuuncanHadaPigeon said:
Agreed, history doesn't repeat itself but it certainly rhymes.

Personally I am going to 'tether up' pretty soon, I think if ETH breaks 2600 then its done.

In this bear market I can see BTC to 10k and ETH to 800

Afterwards they will go on to break all time highs again.

I hope no one here is leveraged as you will get rekt
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Yer al be buying eth and btc at them prices be a fool not to
 
LinekersLegs said:
I’d genuinely be interested if you could point me towards some none meme articles on the benefits.

Have to admit I find it the colourful cast of characters involved in crypto make me, perhaps overly, cautious
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The benefits (they would argue) that it's a currency that is outside of the control of the government and the main banking sector. For it's more libertarian proponents such involvement in FIAT currencies leads to corruption, manipulation etc. Crypto currencies are free from that. They are also traceless, so nobody can harvest your data from what you do or don't spend your money on, you can avoid haing to pay tax with it etc.

There are obviously lots of counter points to this and a lot will depend on your own philosophical perspective.

For me, I don't really by into the utopian beliefs about how amazing it is, but I can also acknowledge the dollar has been used for some pretty awful things as well. I just tend to look at charts, and when it looks like a bull run is coming I'll buy. It's not really an ethical "investment" for me at all, and I can't say I really invest in anything along an ethical lines, but I'll judge when I think there is money to be made.
 
catcherintherye said:
The benefits (they would argue) that it's a currency that is outside of the control of the government and the main banking sector. For it's more libertarian proponents such involvement in FIAT currencies leads to corruption, manipulation etc. Crypto currencies are free from that. They are also traceless, so nobody can harvest your data from what you do or don't spend your money on, you can avoid haing to pay tax with it etc.

There are obviously lots of counter points to this and a lot will depend on your own philosophical perspective.

For me, I don't really by into the utopian beliefs about how amazing it is, but I can also acknowledge the dollar has been used for some pretty awful things as well. I just tend to look at charts, and when it looks like a bull run is coming I'll buy. It's not really an ethical "investment" for me at all, and I can't say I really invest in anything along an ethical lines, but I'll judge when I think there is money to be made.
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The only good thing blockchain offers is providing a censorship resistant network, nobody wants to use a very slow expensive database. Bitcoin will never be used as a currency.

Most coins are very easily traced by doing some rudimental chainalysis, also Coinbase for example reports back to HMRC so you can't just cash out and pay no tax.

There are some privacy coins like Monero that are pretty much traceless, you can also anonymize your ETH through services like tornado cash so there would be no way of tracing your ETH.

I agree with you, people buying dogecoin so they can 'stick it to the man' are fools and I don't think governments/central banks will happily cede control to crypto.
 
catcherintherye said:
The benefits (they would argue) that it's a currency that is outside of the control of the government and the main banking sector. For it's more libertarian proponents such involvement in FIAT currencies leads to corruption, manipulation etc. Crypto currencies are free from that. They are also traceless, so nobody can harvest your data from what you do or don't spend your money on, you can avoid haing to pay tax with it etc.

There are obviously lots of counter points to this and a lot will depend on your own philosophical perspective.

For me, I don't really by into the utopian beliefs about how amazing it is, but I can also acknowledge the dollar has been used for some pretty awful things as well. I just tend to look at charts, and when it looks like a bull run is coming I'll buy. It's not really an ethical "investment" for me at all, and I can't say I really invest in anything along an ethical lines, but I'll judge when I think there is money to be made.
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Thanks, I can definitely see the trading appeal of crypto.

Tbh “free from manipulation“ might be the theory but in practice the whole market seems to move dramatically even on one tweet.
 

LinekersLegs said:
Thanks, I can definitely see the trading appeal of crypto.

Tbh “free from manipulation“ might be the theory but in practice the whole market seems to move dramatically even on one tweet.
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This is the reality of it, and the the reality of the limitations that libetarians of all persuasions don't see. While the state and formal banks often behave badly, it's not proper regulation that is the problem, but greed and inequality in the system. Havijng less controls doens't deal with that.

And yes Bitcoin is very susceptible to price changes from single tweets. What you realise is the connection to the financial system FIAT currencies have anchors the price more so you avoid such volatility.

I'm not really pro or anti-bitcoin. I see limitations of both arguments.
 

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