Everton Summer transfers 2021

[Nymzee]

He’s a tidy player but I would be seriously interested in that Ethan Ampadu if he ever became available

So, so overrated.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I don't think he will depreciate wildly, I would imagine he will maintain level for a good few years yet, and you may even get some improvements. His market value will though. There's a contradiction in there, which is sort of why he's not a great candidate to sell.

Mina is a much harder sitution. I think if someone paid us close to what we paid, and took his wages on board, I could see a deal being done. I don't think we will be willingly looking to extend his contract on existing terms yet, there is still a "lets see some more" from him feel.

I think Holgate may be the one to move on, if one where to go.

Assets depreciate. Players decline. Keane's depreciation as an asset will occur independent of whether he declines; a decline would accelerate the depreciation.

I'd prefer to retain Mina and see if he continues to develop, as he's at the age where CBs tend to finally cone into their own, but I don't think that's realistic at present wages.

I don't see us moving Holgate given that we just extended him. This is an environment where you generally want to hold assets and buy new ones if possible rather than sell. Keane's a potential exception given that the effect of aging is likely to outweigh a recovery in players' market value once revenue from ticket sales returns.

 

[Brisan123]

So, so overrated.

I’ve seen maybe 6 full games he’s played in
Looks good for one so young

 

[Nymzee]

I’ve seen maybe 6 full games he’s played in
Looks good for one so young

He's a PL player, at defensive mid, I guess but nothing on the hype he received at Exeter. Gilmour is miles more talented for me.

 

[hallamblue]

Do you think Carlo “the professor “ Ancelotti agreed to become the Manager of Everton Football club with the aim of winning trophies and qualifying for Europe with a budget of 20-30m plus sales


Nah me neither
Somewhere north of 60m net depending on league position

I actually do believe that. He sees it as his last job, building slowly over a 5 year period which gets us into the new stadium, hopefully as an established top 6 club.

 

[Brisan123]

He's a PL player, at defensive mid, I guess but nothing on the hype he received at Exeter. Gilmour is miles more talented for me.

I can’t see Gilmour going anywhere any time time soon , too talented
But it’s Chelsea and KDB and Lukaku and Salah probably disagree with me

 

[Lord Buckethead]

Mixture of both really. We don’t really have a lot of fast players within the team. We literally have two players capable of running with the ball at speed, Richy and Dom. It also doesn’t help that we have no attacking outlet on the right hand side and no attacking midfielders with pace.

Under Martinez we were great at counter attacking, we had Mirallas on the left. Barkley, Lukaku and Deulofeu on the right, 4 players capable of breaking with pace and running with the ball at their feet. I always imagine just how good we could have been if we had as solid a defence as we have now.

I think that says it all really.

Yeah but what about the Idea Balls and Ghost Dribbles per game??

 

[Brisan123]

I actually do believe that. He sees it as his last job, building slowly over a 5 year period which gets us into the new stadium, hopefully as an established top 6 club.

Both he and Moshiri want us in Europe and top 4 as soon as possible
The European super league will happen , it’s just a matter of when and Carlo and Moshiri want to be in it

 

[Lord Buckethead]

I actually do believe that. He sees it as his last job, building slowly over a 5 year period which gets us into the new stadium, hopefully as an established top 6 club.

He's already retired to the seaside mate. He's only managing for a laugh us to get out from under the Wife's feet.

 

[ValBlue]

He's a PL player, at defensive mid, I guess but nothing on the hype he received at Exeter. Gilmour is miles more talented for me.

He’s a proper little wizard that Gilmour. Chelsea will never let him go but if playtime issues begin to creep in perhaps it opens a door. Chelsea have a lot of central midfielders, it might not be a completely wild thought if he wants to kick on regularly

 

[Lanolin]

Er.... yes. That's right. That's what I'm saying.

We aren't going to sign a £20m CB and then try to sell Keane. What is being discussed is the hypothetical situation of another club coming in with a big offer for Keane (based on him having a great season to date) and whether, in that scenario, there is any merit to considering such an offer if the numbers meant we'd be making a profit even after bringing in a new CB at £20m.

Of course, no-one understood why Brands and Carlo bought Godfrey for £22m last summer. CB was already our strongest positional group. But they did it anyway, and they were right to do so.

Anyone with any sense did. It was very, very obvious we would be signing another centre half in the summer.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Do you think Carlo “the professor “ Ancelotti agreed to become the Manager of Everton Football club with the aim of winning trophies and qualifying for Europe with a budget of 20-30m plus sales


Nah me neither
Somewhere north of 60m net depending on league position

Any handshake on net spend occurred pre-COVID.

20-30m plus sales is not bad given that so many traditional powers are likely to be selling clubs this summer. Inter and Barca are an absolute mess, and Juve and AC Milan are also bleeding red ink but have more options for dealing with it. Arsenal has problems and Tottenham finished a new stadium at the absolute worst possible time.

Just not being sell-to-buy is a strong financial position right now. We're fortunate under present circumstances that match day revenue is such a small slice of our revenue pie.

 

[Brisan123]

Any handshake on net spend occurred pre-COVID.

20-30m plus sales is not bad given that so many traditional powers are likely to be selling clubs this summer. Inter and Barca are an absolute mess, and Juve and AC Milan are also bleeding red ink but have more options for dealing with it. Arsenal has problems and Tottenham finished a new stadium at the absolute worst possible time.

Just not being sell-to-buy is a strong financial position right now. We're fortunate under present circumstances that match day revenue is such a small slice of our revenue pie.

I still think Moshiri will back Carlo big no matter where we finish
All 4 signings he has made have improved us
Moshiri will want more of the same

 

[Zatara]

This has been done to death. The whole point is that it would GENERATE money, not waste it.

The theory is that Keane is currently at peak value (consider his age, current performance levels and form over last 18 months) so IF someone out there wanted him then we would get the most for him now. In that scenario, we still have Mina (vastly improved this season) and Godfrey (already a viable option in both a two-man CB setup and a back three) and Holgate who are Prem-ready as CBs. Why do I include Holgate? Because we're almost certainly going to go to the market and buy a starting-standard RB in the summer, so he won't be required to start there next season. If we CAN'T find a suitable RB then sure, Holgate stays there and we leave the CBs alone.

You have to take all the above with a pinch of salt, but why on Earth do you think Carlo and Brands AREN'T keeping their eyes open looking for a tall, pacy CB between 21 and 24 years old from France, Holland, Germany, Italy, Spain or the Championship? The club is a business, players are depreciating assets who ALL have to be phased out eventually and Keane is currently our oldest CB. If someone younger and cheaper than Keane comes along and they are better than Branthwaite, then they slot in perfectly. In that instance, if the fee for Player X is £10m less than we're being offered for Keane, give me a single commercial reason why we wouldn't do it.

I agree 100% that the above approach is not traditional. it's not how football teams were assembled 30 years ago and it doesn't sit well with any fan who is emotionally attached to any particular player. But football is a business and the clubs taking part are all commercial entities. If you ignore the commercial side then you just become Leeds in the late 90's.

It's a good post.

Just to offer some counters, as I agree with the overall thinking.

Firstly I would question now whether Keane is actually at peak value. At 27, given the likelihood of the market being where it is in the summer, I think he is probably past his peak slightly as an assett (but not as a footballer).

Our issue is who do we sell him too. We will likely only make significant money on him if 1 of the top 6, probably at the upper end come in and buy him. Strangely I thought Liverpool could have been a possibility when they needed a centre half, but they have gone in a different direction. Of the others, I mean Spurs he would suit but not sure they are going to have an enormous amount of money, and United are the other. I think it's going to be hard to get say £40m + for him.

The flip of this, is that continuity has an inherent value too. I have no doubt if we lowere our asking price to say £25m (which I still don't think resolves all of the challenges above) we could find a younger defender who might have a higher ceiling for similar or even less money. It can go either way though. They can come in anot not settle etc etc.

We have invested in time probably 2 years to get MIchael Keane to the level he is at now, and there is no reason why he can't remain at a similar level for some years to come. He's never relied on pace, and is beginning to bring the ball out of the back and read the game well. These are traits which will serve him well into his 30's. What price do we put on that continuity.

If someone comes in and gives us a silly offer for Michael Keane, as frankly with any player we will sell, but beyond that it's just not one that I look at and think it makes much sense.

3 options...

1: Sell and sign a younger player with higher ceiling for less money

2: Sell and sign a younger player with higher ceiling for more money

3: Keep him for another 4 years as his value from now will drop.

Holgate and GIBSON will be the 2 to go IF you are correct

There is no way Holgate would be sold under Ancelotti. Hes not at his peak value and can play multiple positions.

Gibson will definitely be leaving the club. Branthwaite will probably be out on loan again.

Godfrey covers left back, Holgate covers right back even if we do sign a new RB. Plus hopefully we will be in Europe next season and will need a sqaud.

We will not be selling Michael Keane nor will we be spending big money on another centre half.

We will almost certainly sell Moise Kean to raise funds.

If we want to grow as a club then we really should be.

 

[Brisan123]

Holgate is fourth choice CB
If we sign a RB he is then second maybe third choice RB
He’s the obvious one to go , if they consider Branthwaite has a higher ceiling
If we get Europe we are not selling any of them with the exception of GIBSON