Everton Summer transfers 2021

[Tree13]

Sorry but we are not signing another CB or someone that can play CB. Why oh why would we waste money on that.

This has been done to death. The whole point is that it would GENERATE money, not waste it.

The theory is that Keane is currently at peak value (consider his age, current performance levels and form over last 18 months) so IF someone out there wanted him then we would get the most for him now. In that scenario, we still have Mina (vastly improved this season) and Godfrey (already a viable option in both a two-man CB setup and a back three) and Holgate who are Prem-ready as CBs. Why do I include Holgate? Because we're almost certainly going to go to the market and buy a starting-standard RB in the summer, so he won't be required to start there next season. If we CAN'T find a suitable RB then sure, Holgate stays there and we leave the CBs alone.

You have to take all the above with a pinch of salt, but why on Earth do you think Carlo and Brands AREN'T keeping their eyes open looking for a tall, pacy CB between 21 and 24 years old from France, Holland, Germany, Italy, Spain or the Championship? The club is a business, players are depreciating assets who ALL have to be phased out eventually and Keane is currently our oldest CB. If someone younger and cheaper than Keane comes along and they are better than Branthwaite, then they slot in perfectly. In that instance, if the fee for Player X is £10m less than we're being offered for Keane, give me a single commercial reason why we wouldn't do it.

I agree 100% that the above approach is not traditional. it's not how football teams were assembled 30 years ago and it doesn't sit well with any fan who is emotionally attached to any particular player. But football is a business and the clubs taking part are all commercial entities. If you ignore the commercial side then you just become Leeds in the late 90's.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Michael Keane is not being sold

 

[catcherintherye]

This has been done to death. The whole point is that it would GENERATE money, not waste it.

The theory is that Keane is currently at peak value (consider his age, current performance levels and form over last 18 months) so IF someone out there wanted him then we would get the most for him now. In that scenario, we still have Mina (vastly improved this season) and Godfrey (already a viable option in both a two-man CB setup and a back three) and Holgate who are Prem-ready as CBs. Why do I include Holgate? Because we're almost certainly going to go to the market and buy a starting-standard RB in the summer, so he won't be required to start there next season. If we CAN'T find a suitable RB then sure, Holgate stays there and we leave the CBs alone.

You have to take all the above with a pinch of salt, but why on Earth do you think Carlo and Brands AREN'T keeping their eyes open looking for a tall, pacy CB between 21 and 24 years old from France, Holland, Germany, Italy, Spain or the Championship? The club is a business, players are depreciating assets who ALL have to be phased out eventually and Keane is currently our oldest CB. If someone younger and cheaper than Keane comes along and they are better than Branthwaite, then they slot in perfectly. In that instance, if the fee for Player X is £10m less than we're being offered for Keane, give me a single commercial reason why we wouldn't do it.

I agree 100% that the above approach is not traditional. it's not how football teams were assembled 30 years ago and it doesn't sit well with any fan who is emotionally attached to any particular player. But football is a business and the clubs taking part are all commercial entities. If you ignore the commercial side then you just become Leeds in the late 90's.

It's a good post.

Just to offer some counters, as I agree with the overall thinking.

Firstly I would question now whether Keane is actually at peak value. At 27, given the likelihood of the market being where it is in the summer, I think he is probably past his peak slightly as an assett (but not as a footballer).

Our issue is who do we sell him too. We will likely only make significant money on him if 1 of the top 6, probably at the upper end come in and buy him. Strangely I thought Liverpool could have been a possibility when they needed a centre half, but they have gone in a different direction. Of the others, I mean Spurs he would suit but not sure they are going to have an enormous amount of money, and United are the other. I think it's going to be hard to get say £40m + for him.

The flip of this, is that continuity has an inherent value too. I have no doubt if we lowere our asking price to say £25m (which I still don't think resolves all of the challenges above) we could find a younger defender who might have a higher ceiling for similar or even less money. It can go either way though. They can come in anot not settle etc etc.

We have invested in time probably 2 years to get MIchael Keane to the level he is at now, and there is no reason why he can't remain at a similar level for some years to come. He's never relied on pace, and is beginning to bring the ball out of the back and read the game well. These are traits which will serve him well into his 30's. What price do we put on that continuity.

If someone comes in and gives us a silly offer for Michael Keane, as frankly with any player we will sell, but beyond that it's just not one that I look at and think it makes much sense.

 

[Brisan123]

Mina
Keane
Godfrey
Holgate
Branthwaite
Gibson

Two of these wont be in the squad next season + we will sign someone who can play CB.




*You're....

*Dollarland

Holgate and GIBSON will be the 2 to go IF you are correct

 

[Martin Alvito]

There will not be many buyers for Kean at the price we would expect to get
Juve reportedly want him on loan as they can’t afford to buy
We may pick up bargains due to the pandemic but also have to realise that nobody is paying north of 40 m for Kean ( except PSG ) in the current market
The fact he failed in England will put some clubs off

His success in Serie A will mean that many of those clubs will likely be interested. It's just that they're broke.

That will probably give PSG some leverage in setting the fee, which will likely lead to some disappointment in these parts. We'll most likely reap a mild profit, but I don't see us getting 40 million euros out of PSG without other horses in the race for Kean's signature.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Mina
Keane
Godfrey
Holgate
Branthwaite
Gibson

Two of these wont be in the squad next season + we will sign someone who can play CB.




*You're....

*Dollarland

Gibson will definitely be leaving the club. Branthwaite will probably be out on loan again.

Godfrey covers left back, Holgate covers right back even if we do sign a new RB. Plus hopefully we will be in Europe next season and will need a sqaud.

We will not be selling Michael Keane nor will we be spending big money on another centre half.

We will almost certainly sell Moise Kean to raise funds.

 

[Tree13]

Michael Keane is not being sold

Every player has a price mate. There's a difference between actively trying to ship somebody out of the club (Bolasie, Besic, Tosun, Delph) and simply being fiscally pragmatic.

 

[Brisan123]

I think some of it will depend on league position. If we somehow spawn our way into the Champions League Moshiri will definitely spend the extra money from that in advance. Otherwise it will probably be £20 to £30 million plus whatever we get from player sales.

Do you think Carlo “the professor “ Ancelotti agreed to become the Manager of Everton Football club with the aim of winning trophies and qualifying for Europe with a budget of 20-30m plus sales


Nah me neither
Somewhere north of 60m net depending on league position

 

[ToffeeTim]

Every player has a price mate. There's a difference between actively trying to ship somebody out of the club (Bolasie, Besic, Tosun, Delph) and simply being fiscally pragmatic.

His value to us is about 40m +. No one will be offering that.

People had a problem with Keane coming into this season and are being too stubborn to admit he's been our best defender this season. The idea he should be sold is bonkers.

 

[Tree13]

His value to us is about 40m +. No one will be offering that.

People had a problem with Keane coming into this season and are being too stubborn to admit he's been our best defender this season. The idea he should be sold is bonkers.

You're right about most of what you say. But what you say is demonstrating that you're missing the point.

IF someone comes in with a decent offer for Keane (and i agree with you that it currently looks unlikely) then the club, operating as a commercial entity with a cashflow, a balance sheet and a profit / loss ledger, will consider that offer. PART of that consideration will involve the Board saying to Carlo and Marcel "Is there a decent replacement available in the market for a lower fee?" IF the two of them say "Yes, here is a shortlist of four players we think would slot into the rotation nicely, and here are the fees being suggested by their agents." then the club will evaluate the commercial benefits and make a call based on normal financial principles.

Some people probably did have a problem with Keane before the start of the season, yes. Most of them would admit however that he has been very good this year - I'll grant you a minority may still be too stubborn. But Keane isn't the long term future at CB for this club - Godfrey is.

There is a difference between actively trying to shift at all costs, and just keeping all options open. IF someone comes in with a wedge of cash for a CB this summer, Keane would be the sensible one for us to let go. Put it another way - if someone offered £40m for Godfrey, I think we'd all agree that we would say "No."... I would be looking at that £40m however and thinking "I bet they'll take Keane though...."

 

[Brisan123]

His success in Serie A will mean that many of those clubs will likely be interested. It's just that they're broke.

That will probably give PSG some leverage in setting the fee, which will likely lead to some disappointment in these parts. We'll most likely reap a mild profit, but I don't see us getting 40 million euros out of PSG without other horses in the race for Kean's signature.

I agree
In a normal market with the season Kean has had he is a 40m player
But if no one has 40m to spend then he’s not a 40m player

 

[ToffeeTim]

Do you think Carlo “the professor “ Ancelotti agreed to become the Manager of Everton Football club with the aim of winning trophies and qualifying for Europe with a budget of 20-30m plus sales


Nah me neither
Somewhere north of 60m net depending on league position

I think we will sign 2 or 3 outfield players plus Olsen on a permanent or a new keeper.

Overall spend will probably be 60 or 70m minimum, but we will recoup at least half of that through Moise Kean. The wage budget will be significantly reduced by those leaving at the end of their contracts as well.

 

[ToffeeTim]

You're right about most of what you say. But what you say is demonstrating that you're missing the point.

IF someone comes in with a decent offer for Keane (and i agree with you that it currently looks unlikely) then the club, operating as a commercial entity with a cashflow, a balance sheet and a profit / loss ledger, will consider that offer. PART of that consideration will involve the Board saying to Carlo and Marcel "Is there a decent replacement available in the market for a lower fee?" IF the two of them say "Yes, here is a shortlist of four players we think would slot into the rotation nicely, and here are the fees being suggested by their agents." then teh club will evaluate teh commercial benefits and make a call based on normal financial principles.

Some people probably did have a problem with Keane before the start of the season, yes. Most of them would admit however that he has been very good this year - I'll grant you a minority may still be too stubborn. But Keane isn't the long term future at CB for this club - Godfrey is.

There is a difference between actively trying to shift at all costs, and just keeping all options open. IF someone comes in with a wedge of cash for a CB this summer, Keane would be the sensible one for us to let go.

He has a price like all players, but that value is much higher for the club than anyone would pay.

To even consider a sale, around 50m would have to be on the table and that won't happen. Even at that price I'd be very reluctant to sell because there is absolutely zero guarantee of a replacement being better.

Ancelotti is here to win, not improve the balance sheet, and I'm sure Moshiri is of a similar mind.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Firstly I would question now whether Keane is actually at peak value. At 27, given the likelihood of the market being where it is in the summer, I think he is probably past his peak slightly as an assett (but not as a footballer).

The idea is that Keane is at the age where he will depreciate rapidly. CBs that don't rely on pace can play for a good long while, but you can't sell a CB in their 30s for much.

If I had to guess, Mina will want more than we are prepared to pay and will move on. We'll argue that COVID has reduced market wages, his agent won't want to agree to a pay cut, he'll be shopped around and someone will pay it.

If we were currently paying less generous wages, I think he'd stay, but we had to pay what we had to pay when the larder was bare. 8th sounds like a decent finish until you realize that 8th this season is ten points off that season total with 13 to play.

 

[Tree13]

He has a price like all players, but that value is much higher for the club than anyone would pay.

To even consider a sale, around 50m would have to be on the table and that won't happen. Even at that price I'd be very reluctant to sell because there is absolutely zero guarantee of a replacement being better.

Ancelotti is here to win, not improve the balance sheet, and I'm sure Moshiri is of a similar mind.

Again, missing the point.

The question is not "How likely is it that someone would offer a big fee for Keane?" The question is "Could we keep a strong rotation of CBs at the club if we accepted a big offer for Keane?"

With Mina, Godfrey and Holgate already here, the answer is "Yes, if we can bring in a young, pacy CB who is approaching Holgate's level." The replacement doesn't have to be as good as Keane, because frankly Godfrey will overtake Keane AND Mina as our first choice CB in about a year at the rate he's going.

And your last point... Yes, Ancelotti is here to win trophies. But Moshiri is here to make money. That's the difference between a club manager and a club owner.