ECHO Comment: "Fears of Witch-hunt Against Liverpool FC" part 3

[arch stanton]

We’re halfway through the season and they’re only 6 points off top. 19 games to play you’d be an idiot to write them off now.

the difference this season is that there are half a dozen teams snapping at them, not just City. They will have to rely on a few teams dropping off some form where it turns out that they are the team seeing a big drop in form. I think they should good for a top half finish

 

[the golden visionary]

Worse title defence than Charles Martin

 

[catcherintherye]

Their accounts come out in a few weeks. I think we will see massive indications that these ideas of buying Mbappe are absolutely miles out. The fact they couldn’t buy Jamal Lewis in the summer (who Newcastle could afford) passed up on Werner, and sold Brewster Lovren Hoever to finance Thiago and Jota (apparently his transfer is on a bizarre payment plan as well, effectively 40 mill plus Hoever so way above his market value but the payments are all deferred as they couldn’t afford them) all shows that they are not flush with cash. If they were they’d have bought a centreback in even on loan, it’s a no brainier. They wouldn’t have been trying to furlough their staff either. That all screams of an organisation with cash flow problems. They probably budgeted for going further in the CL last year also.

FSG are venture capitalists. They invest in assets that will rise to make them money. As soon as an asset plateaus they’re not going to keep it. They got Liverpool on the cheap, pumped money into it to deliver success, and just as they were probably looking to sell it when it’s value was at its highest, Corona has absolutely screwed it for them. They have committed costs tied up in paying for the stadium, transfers, and mega wages whilst seeing their income absolutely slashed.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all to now see them try to clean the decks a bit. Get a big fee for some players (wouldn’t shock me to see them court PSG for Allison), get some high earners off the books, and task Klopp with a few seasons of getting top 4 with a sell to buy policy and using academy kids. Then look for a sale in a few seasons. Klopp won’t want that though. I think he threw his toys out the pram in the early season to get Thiago and Jota as both deals looked very unlike FSG, but I think he thought he could get another title or CL then he’d be off.

If he fails to get them in the top 4 the ramifications for them could be massive because unlike an Abramovich, Mansour, Moshiri, they don’t have owners who can just swallow those losses and keep funding transfer spending because of personal interest in the project. FSG will look at a cold hard investment v expected output spreadsheet and if the investment isn’t worth it they won’t be doing it and they’ll take their money to whatever asset is growing at the time.

Yes good post mate. I put a longer post myself which highlighted why they are most suscetible a few pages back, so won't go into detail of the text other than to say they are;
1) In the top 6 so disproportionately affected by oss of commercial and gate revenue (and potential European funds too if UEFA have to downgrade prize money)
2) No cash reserves like United
3) No Sugar daddy (like City/Chelsea)
4) To a degree, no government loan (I can only presume not eligible so deemed too high a risk) that Spurs/Arsenal have

So working capital is an issue,

As for their accounts, I expect them to be bad, but next season to be much much worse. This years take us from March to June. Next years are going to run from June to June to June. What was essentially 3 months of lost revenue is going to be 12 months (or 10 months of lost commercial activities). So they wil be bad, but it will get worse for them.

I predicted no Mbappe last summer, and also no Werner. They've clearly got deals on v low initial payments and spread over the contract. What that means is more money will be due this summer. I'll be honest I think they will be under pressure to make those payments. Last summer was interesting to me, they like many teams spent more than I thought they might. I'd say a mixture of things kicked in. Football didn't want to wake up to the pressure and have deflation creeping in (it's worked best for everyone runnign a 30 year almost uninterupted bull market).

People in football, for the most part live in an arrogant dreamworld too. I think the view was normality would be with us by Christmas with full fans returning. Who can forget Levy sending the letter into the government demanding 30k at the opening game of the season. Thats the trajectory I believe they thought they were on. In the stupidity of eat to to help out etc it seemed plausible. I think they got a bit carried away in that. It's the only sense I can make ofspending in the summer and not doing much in the winter. Reality has kicked in.

For me the plan has always been big sale-re-invest. 2 summers ago it was meant to be Mane. They asked for something ridiculous like £100m+ and Real Madrid just laughed them out of town. Madrid might have gone to 70. It was the summer they signed Hazard for about £85m and Mane was seen by them as a poor mans Hazard (which he is). Around that time I seem to remember links of Firmino to Bayern cropping up with the usual "we want £90m" nonsense from their friendly journalists close to the club. Again Bayern would not go near that figure. So they kind of messed it up. Coutinho hurt them too, selling him for 100m and him flopping has made people wary of them. They all find it funny, but in reality it has snookered their business model.

They keeo going on about "Salah's valuation" as if it's objectively £100m+. He will be 29 in the summer, Prices for those players are now collapsing.I think with 2 years left on a deal, depending on where the market it as it is, they'd do well to get £80m for him. Again Alisson to PSG could happen, though their goalkeeper is very good. 80m would be top end for Salah though and assumes no massive drop in prices. There's no doubt they want him gone, but without a big sale, hard to see how they move.

So while the plan is probably good, they are unrealistic on what fees they can get and it's hampered them a fair bit. The rebuild will probably take a bit longer than people first think. As a final aside, a couple of reds have said to me that missing out on top 4 would "send them back years" on top of the inevitable rebuild/ "clearing the decks" thats to come. It's hard to see how 1 year missing out would be that awful, bit either the money situation is really bad, or a lot of their contracts they've got have got huge downgrades in them if they miss out CL. As always, it could be both.

Really interesting viewing either way.

 

[catcherintherye]

Think they got Thiago and Jota on Brighthouse terms of about £5-6mill upfront.

Fans were all lauding Edwards business dealings, only realising now its because they are skint. Also forgetting that they owe another payment for both this summer which will come out of whatever tiny budget they have, if any unless they can flog one of their big players.

Thats one issue they have. How they pay for last seasons signings will be top of the agenda.

It's also worth noting with Edwards, that before Klopp arrived nobody had a good word to say about him. He had presided that summer over signing Balotelli, Benteke & Ricky Lambert to replace Luis Suarez (for about the same money spent). They did the same thing we did in 2017 the summer Suarez left. Klopp saved his bacon really, but the previous 3 managers he recuited for, his record was very patchy.

 

[Kurt.]

Thats one issue they have. How they pay for last seasons signings will be top of the agenda.

It’s easy , they start selling LFC viagra.... all of the soft pricks will buy it.

 

[Bullens Rd]

It’s easy , they start selling LFC viagra.... all of the soft pricks will buy it.

In all fairness they could sell bottled "Anfield Air" and they'd probably make billions off it from their fans around the world. Knobs.

 

[Zatara]

Interesting comparison. Obviously the whole dynamic would change if they brought in Mbappe and Sancho this summer for example. But a lot of brighter people than me have explained why that isn't going to happen.

Lets say they signed Mbappe or Sancho for £100mil+.

They would need to generate the funds by selling at least one of Salah / Mane / Firminho. Of course Mbappe/Sancho would improve them as they are now but would they be instantly better than a peak Salah or Mane over the past couple of seasons?

It would be very positive from them to recycle those players but i imagine they would still need time to 'click'....meanwhile they still need another centre back and central midfielder.

The longer they wait, the older their top players become and the shorter their contracts.

He'll be out in the next 18 months if they dont win a trophy.

If they finish outside the top 4 this season i dont think hed stay for the rebuild.

If they do but dont win the league or reach champions league final next season i think hes done.

Funnily enough Cristian Falk (the excellent Bayern and Germany source) has said he thinks Klopp will quit next summer to take over the national team.

Obviously with what is coming out now about not having money to get another defender in and the dig at the board..... I think this has been coming for a few months.

That would be a perfect job for him i think...he can run players into the ground while not needing to think about the transfer market as he has an endless supply lol

Rory Smith is an idiot and Sam Wallace is not the best in the business.

They have little money, but still a huge pull. It just makes it more likely they get Salah on the cheap.

It's likely Liverpool were hoping for a big sale, which they wont get now.

I think the key question is, how many on that list are Everton realistically planning on getting anything other than nominal fees for? And how many do Liverpool?

And if either side is banking on getting big fees, to what extent have they planned future business on the those assumptions?

I think FSG are in it for the long haul. The valuation they want will not be met in the good times, never mind in difficult times of the next 4-5 years. Likely they may sell a bit of liquidity to the RB chain if they sell to anyone.

I'd imagine they can borrow against the value of Liverpool, and it's a great cash cow if all else fails.

Klopp will go first. The question is how much damage does he do on the way out.

I think their financial problems run deeper than that, but Liverpools are similarly serious in a different way.

Either way, RM or Barca just tap them up and sign them on a free/heavily reduced fee in 12 months (like sometihng nominal, 20 million or whatever).

If you were Barca would you want to sign Firminho, Mane or Salah? Its well documented that they need to remove a lot of their older players and bring in a new crop like De Jong, Dest etc.

Wijnaldum would be the exception as hes on a free and could be a good 3 year stopgap for them.

Madrid dont need any of those 3 players. The only player they 'need' would be VVD to replace Ramos.

I find it hard to see where Firminho, Mane and Salah would be welcomed for anything over £50mil...the fee/wages doesnt make sense to either Spanish side.

As you say, it makes more sense to wait till Jan 2022 and then move for these players (if they need them then) at £20mil or on pre contract agreements.


In the comparison I made, i dont think we would be looking to move on James, Keane, Allan or Doucoure who are our main over 28 players. Thats unless big offers came in of course and the only one id see that being for would be Keane.

With the RS, they will keep Alisson, Henderson and VVD i think but will be actively trying to move on the front 3 with little interest. Thiago we'll see what they do with him in the summer...


In terms of the 22-28 range group id say ours are far more 'valuable' than theirs. For TAA, Robertson, Fabinho and Jota we have DCL, Richarlison, Pickford, Mina, Godfrey, Digne, Holgate, Iwobi which seems to be more forward planning on our part.

With them, i think if they end up able to move on one of the front three they'll try to replace 'like for like' in terms of money. They'll be under fan and media pressure as well as from advertising and sponsorship to go big on replacements.

With us, we have players coming through (branthwaite/nkounkou/gordon)...players who can return or be sold for fees to replace (Kean) and an owner who isnt afraid to put cash down alongside a DOF who focuses on the £20-30mil signing bracket for first teamers.

This year is critical for them to finish top 4 while for us the target is european football...

 

[Zatara]

I’m completely of this school of thought as they’re experts at pulling out triumph out of the jaws of defeat. They’ll probably finish 5th but win the CL.

That being said, they don’t have much room for any more mistakes in the league. It’s unlikely that any points total in the 70s wins the league, so let’s suggest that as a minimum a team needs 80 points to have a chance. Liverpool would need 46 points from 19 games to get that. That’s about 2.4 points per game, effectively winning 3 and drawing one of every block of four games for the rest of the season. Of course it can be done because this los have reeled off multiple wins in a row in recent past seasons. Every team in the league looks incapable of getting on one of those runs of winning thirteen in a row now though.

For City they need 42 points from 20 games to get to 80. That’s 2.1 ppg which is effectively what they’ve been at for ages, even what they managed last season. If they beat West Brom next, it’s practically winning and drawing every other game would almost see them home.

Ive said in the 'champions' thread in the everton only that by end of Feb we'll know where teams will roughly finish...heres the RS fixtures till then:

United A (cup)
Spurs A
West Ham A
Brighton H
City H
Leicester A
Leipzig A (cup)
Everton H
Sheffield A

9 games in just over a month with 7 league games...will they win 5 of those?

Not for me...

Their accounts come out in a few weeks. I think we will see massive indications that these ideas of buying Mbappe are absolutely miles out. The fact they couldn’t buy Jamal Lewis in the summer (who Newcastle could afford) passed up on Werner, and sold Brewster Lovren Hoever to finance Thiago and Jota (apparently his transfer is on a bizarre payment plan as well, effectively 40 mill plus Hoever so way above his market value but the payments are all deferred as they couldn’t afford them) all shows that they are not flush with cash. If they were they’d have bought a centreback in even on loan, it’s a no brainier. They wouldn’t have been trying to furlough their staff either. That all screams of an organisation with cash flow problems. They probably budgeted for going further in the CL last year also.

FSG are venture capitalists. They invest in assets that will rise to make them money. As soon as an asset plateaus they’re not going to keep it. They got Liverpool on the cheap, pumped money into it to deliver success, and just as they were probably looking to sell it when it’s value was at its highest, Corona has absolutely screwed it for them. They have committed costs tied up in paying for the stadium, transfers, and mega wages whilst seeing their income absolutely slashed.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all to now see them try to clean the decks a bit. Get a big fee for some players (wouldn’t shock me to see them court PSG for Allison), get some high earners off the books, and task Klopp with a few seasons of getting top 4 with a sell to buy policy and using academy kids. Then look for a sale in a few seasons. Klopp won’t want that though. I think he threw his toys out the pram in the early season to get Thiago and Jota as both deals looked very unlike FSG, but I think he thought he could get another title or CL then he’d be off.

If he fails to get them in the top 4 the ramifications for them could be massive because unlike an Abramovich, Mansour, Moshiri, they don’t have owners who can just swallow those losses and keep funding transfer spending because of personal interest in the project. FSG will look at a cold hard investment v expected output spreadsheet and if the investment isn’t worth it they won’t be doing it and they’ll take their money to whatever asset is growing at the time.

I think they'll keep Allison as no one will pay his fee or wages.

Thiago and two of Fabinho/Salah/Mane will be off i think with one big name signed and one player u25 like Jota signed.

If they dont reach top 4 then a fire sale.

Also, players whose contracts expire in 2023. Do they give them new bumper contracts this summer or let them run it down and possibly leave on the cheap/free.

Henderson
Shaquiri
Oxlaide Chamberlain
Salah
Mane
Firmino
Fabinho
Keita
Van Dijk

Henderson, Fabinho and VVD stay i think and the other 6 will be touted around.

Their contract management has been very foolish recently. Emre Can walked out for nothing, so will Wijnaldum by the looks of it, Milner will probably retire. That’s about 60 mill of assets they’ll get nothing for.

Wijnaldum and Milner are as good as gone.

If results continue to falter with Thiago i think he'll be off too.

They seem to need a new spine CB / CM / CF to me....how can they sign those 3 players without selling 3 first teamers ?

Yes good post mate. I put a longer post myself which highlighted why they are most suscetible a few pages back, so won't go into detail of the text other than to say they are;
1) In the top 6 so disproportionately affected by oss of commercial and gate revenue (and potential European funds too if UEFA have to downgrade prize money)
2) No cash reserves like United
3) No Sugar daddy (like City/Chelsea)
4) To a degree, no government loan (I can only presume not eligible so deemed too high a risk) that Spurs/Arsenal have

So working capital is an issue,

As for their accounts, I expect them to be bad, but next season to be much much worse. This years take us from March to June. Next years are going to run from June to June to June. What was essentially 3 months of lost revenue is going to be 12 months (or 10 months of lost commercial activities). So they wil be bad, but it will get worse for them.

I predicted no Mbappe last summer, and also no Werner. They've clearly got deals on v low initial payments and spread over the contract. What that means is more money will be due this summer. I'll be honest I think they will be under pressure to make those payments. Last summer was interesting to me, they like many teams spent more than I thought they might. I'd say a mixture of things kicked in. Football didn't want to wake up to the pressure and have deflation creeping in (it's worked best for everyone runnign a 30 year almost uninterupted bull market).

People in football, for the most part live in an arrogant dreamworld too. I think the view was normality would be with us by Christmas with full fans returning. Who can forget Levy sending the letter into the government demanding 30k at the opening game of the season. Thats the trajectory I believe they thought they were on. In the stupidity of eat to to help out etc it seemed plausible. I think they got a bit carried away in that. It's the only sense I can make ofspending in the summer and not doing much in the winter. Reality has kicked in.

For me the plan has always been big sale-re-invest. 2 summers ago it was meant to be Mane. They asked for something ridiculous like £100m+ and Real Madrid just laughed them out of town. Madrid might have gone to 70. It was the summer they signed Hazard for about £85m and Mane was seen by them as a poor mans Hazard (which he is). Around that time I seem to remember links of Firmino to Bayern cropping up with the usual "we want £90m" nonsense from their friendly journalists close to the club. Again Bayern would not go near that figure. So they kind of messed it up. Coutinho hurt them too, selling him for 100m and him flopping has made people wary of them. They all find it funny, but in reality it has snookered their business model.

They keeo going on about "Salah's valuation" as if it's objectively £100m+. He will be 29 in the summer, Prices for those players are now collapsing.I think with 2 years left on a deal, depending on where the market it as it is, they'd do well to get £80m for him. Again Alisson to PSG could happen, though their goalkeeper is very good. 80m would be top end for Salah though and assumes no massive drop in prices. There's no doubt they want him gone, but without a big sale, hard to see how they move.

So while the plan is probably good, they are unrealistic on what fees they can get and it's hampered them a fair bit. The rebuild will probably take a bit longer than people first think. As a final aside, a couple of reds have said to me that missing out on top 4 would "send them back years" on top of the inevitable rebuild/ "clearing the decks" thats to come. It's hard to see how 1 year missing out would be that awful, bit either the money situation is really bad, or a lot of their contracts they've got have got huge downgrades in them if they miss out CL. As always, it could be both.

Really interesting viewing either way.

If they dont finish top 4 then i wonder if any of their players would ask to leave?

Salah seems to be one to throw his toys out of the pram...anyone else you think?

With PSG i think you need to look at Pochettino...if hes told a budget would he approve the DOF splashing out on Alisson?

I cant see it myself...they'd probably go for Kean and from the RS id guess TAA / Robertson / Fabinho would be the three they'd look at as well as VVD.

Cant see any of the big clubs wanting older forward players at Liverpool, more likely imo to see a big fee for one of those 4 players.

 

[mahermi1]

Yes good post mate. I put a longer post myself which highlighted why they are most suscetible a few pages back, so won't go into detail of the text other than to say they are;
1) In the top 6 so disproportionately affected by oss of commercial and gate revenue (and potential European funds too if UEFA have to downgrade prize money)
2) No cash reserves like United
3) No Sugar daddy (like City/Chelsea)
4) To a degree, no government loan (I can only presume not eligible so deemed too high a risk) that Spurs/Arsenal have

So working capital is an issue,

As for their accounts, I expect them to be bad, but next season to be much much worse. This years take us from March to June. Next years are going to run from June to June to June. What was essentially 3 months of lost revenue is going to be 12 months (or 10 months of lost commercial activities). So they wil be bad, but it will get worse for them.

I predicted no Mbappe last summer, and also no Werner. They've clearly got deals on v low initial payments and spread over the contract. What that means is more money will be due this summer. I'll be honest I think they will be under pressure to make those payments. Last summer was interesting to me, they like many teams spent more than I thought they might. I'd say a mixture of things kicked in. Football didn't want to wake up to the pressure and have deflation creeping in (it's worked best for everyone runnign a 30 year almost uninterupted bull market).

People in football, for the most part live in an arrogant dreamworld too. I think the view was normality would be with us by Christmas with full fans returning. Who can forget Levy sending the letter into the government demanding 30k at the opening game of the season. Thats the trajectory I believe they thought they were on. In the stupidity of eat to to help out etc it seemed plausible. I think they got a bit carried away in that. It's the only sense I can make ofspending in the summer and not doing much in the winter. Reality has kicked in.

For me the plan has always been big sale-re-invest. 2 summers ago it was meant to be Mane. They asked for something ridiculous like £100m+ and Real Madrid just laughed them out of town. Madrid might have gone to 70. It was the summer they signed Hazard for about £85m and Mane was seen by them as a poor mans Hazard (which he is). Around that time I seem to remember links of Firmino to Bayern cropping up with the usual "we want £90m" nonsense from their friendly journalists close to the club. Again Bayern would not go near that figure. So they kind of messed it up. Coutinho hurt them too, selling him for 100m and him flopping has made people wary of them. They all find it funny, but in reality it has snookered their business model.

They keeo going on about "Salah's valuation" as if it's objectively £100m+. He will be 29 in the summer, Prices for those players are now collapsing.I think with 2 years left on a deal, depending on where the market it as it is, they'd do well to get £80m for him. Again Alisson to PSG could happen, though their goalkeeper is very good. 80m would be top end for Salah though and assumes no massive drop in prices. There's no doubt they want him gone, but without a big sale, hard to see how they move.

So while the plan is probably good, they are unrealistic on what fees they can get and it's hampered them a fair bit. The rebuild will probably take a bit longer than people first think. As a final aside, a couple of reds have said to me that missing out on top 4 would "send them back years" on top of the inevitable rebuild/ "clearing the decks" thats to come. It's hard to see how 1 year missing out would be that awful, bit either the money situation is really bad, or a lot of their contracts they've got have got huge downgrades in them if they miss out CL. As always, it could be both.

Really interesting viewing either way.

You know what usually happens next though Catcher, there is always some company that saves them after the drastically overspend/ overstrech financially. They have and still have the pull. Remember towards the end of the 90's, when Granada tv paid them £22m for a 10% cut, that I think was the beginning of their luck. Hicks & Gillette, conned them, but FSG, rode to their rescue. And the same will probably happen this time, love them to go bust, have a big fire sale, but it just ain't going to happen.

 

[mccole]

Come the summer, they will find some more mug clubs to buy their cack for 10 times it's worth like Chamberlain, Origi, Shaqiri plus youth poo.

Salah will want his final payday and commercially he is very valuable so expect him to improve his deal to £300k in line with his peers. Madrid and Barca aren't happening maybe PSG or Juventus but that's a stretch asking for £90/100m+

Mane who for me is more value will be wanting the same so Firmino is the goner but who wants a 29 year striker on £180k a week and contracted for another 2 years.

If they blow qualification for Champions League and add the impact Covid is already having on them, you'll soon see Klopp walking.

 

[Blueclouds]

Come the summer, they will find some more mug clubs to buy their cack for 10 times it's worth like Chamberlain, Origi, Shaqiri plus youth poo.

Salah will want his final payday and commercially he is very valuable so expect him to improve his deal to £300k in line with his peers. Madrid and Barca aren't happening maybe PSG or Juventus but that's a stretch asking for £90/100m+

Mane who for me is more value will be wanting the same so Firmino is the goner but who wants a 29 year striker on £180k a week and contracted for another 2 years.

If they blow qualification for Champions League and add the impact Covid is already having on them, you'll soon see Klopp walking.

You also have to remember that we have 3 hottest young players in the world right now making their next big move, mbappe, sancho and haaland. No one spending big bucks on salah.

 

[bitter-no-better]

 

[Jamo Martinez]

True.
But we won the league in 2018 when Kompany, KDB & Aguero were out for long periods of time.
Silva has started to hit peak form, Foden is on fire and the defence is much more stable.
To be totally honest it's only the last 5 or 6 games where KDB has looked back to being near his
best. Sterling is stinking the place out every week - that's our biggest problem right now.

I was thinking that KDB's injury won't hurt as much because this kid seems to be stepping up in a big way.

 

[Jamo Martinez]

I don't obsess about watching non-English European football so I must confess that I had never heard of Thiago until he signed for the RS. I didn't watch the 2020 Champions League final either. What I've seen so far doesn't overly impress.

Tbh I've always liked Thiago as a player but injuries have caught up with him just as much as with James. Thought the narrative in the media would make it seem like they've unearthed a promising gem while we signed a has been crock.

 

[PhilM]

Come the summer, they will find some more mug clubs to buy their cack for 10 times it's worth like Chamberlain, Origi, Shaqiri plus youth poo.

I'm hoping that ship has sailed because you only need to look how Ibe, Solanke and Brewster have panned out for their respective clubs after sizeable deals.

Surely clubs will look at what they've got to offer in terms of youth players, how much they'll be asking and go, "What's the odds this is going work?"

It also speaks volumes that Klopp has often regularly chosen central midfielders over playing genuine, young central defenders, so does he trust them?