Jamalio Danubio DiCanio
Player Valuation: £1m
Apologies for the long message in advance. Rambled on a bit but this stuff is starting to wreck my head and just wanted to get some of it down..........
There are so many unknowns about the disease that it's hard to make any judgements with a lot of certainty. It's all guesswork by everyone since so much is unknown. A big unknown is the amount of asymptomatic people since these aren't being tested. Is it 1 in 10 people, 1 in a 100, 1 in a 1000 or 1 in 3? Who really knows. That could have a massive impact.
Another unknown is beyond certain factors (such as age) what are the factors that make you susceptible to more severe symptoms? As an example why has Pablo Dybala not been able to fight off the disease in over 4 weeks (he hasn't caught it on 4 separate occasions if people are misinterpreting that story incorrectly)?
In terms of being able to return to normal then that's a big question. Realistically that will be what a vaccine has been developed, shown to work and be safe, and the pharma industry has the capacity to produce it in sufficient quantities to supply the World's population. That's a 2021 goal. That's a big ask for 2020 in my opinion.
What factors could help the World move back to some sort of normality? Probably more capacity for covid19 testing and a robust serological test being widely avalaible. Before a vaccine there could also be currently approved drugs that are shown to be effective in covid19. Regulatory path for these is easier so could be available to treat +ve Covid19 patients and reduce symptoms and death rate.
If we need to wait for a vaccine to re-start sports then a fair expectation and assumption is that we will need to wait for a vaccine to be able to go to a pub/restaurant/cinema/gig/theatre, kids go to school for 5 days a week, for travel to other countries for holiday, maybe even for long distance travel within the UK etc.. All those things are relatively non-essential in the grand scheme of things (kids could go to school in a staggered manner) but I wonder what type of world we end up returning too if that is the case. Industries, more important than sport, would be decimated.
My expectation is that social distancing will be in place for the next 6-9 months at least. That will mean no attendance at sporting events until 2021 at some point. I think social distancing measures will be relaxed gradually over time as testing capacity increases over the next few months - though I wouldn't rule out a 2nd lockdown later this year (how could that affect the 2020-21 season?).
What do this mean for sport and in particular football? In my personal opinion is that the game can't survive if it takes until a vaccine is available to re-start football in some capacity. Clubs at every level will be under threat. People might think that's bad planning by clubs but that is the absolute reality due to the contracts that are currently obligated to honour. So football will need to come back before mid 2021. Or at least make plans to do so. Think when it does it will be behind closed doors and linked to availability of testing. Testing is ramping up now so that may not be as long as people think.
What does it mean for the 2019/20 season? That's a difficult question that no-one knows the answer to. Based on what UEFA have said European places need to granted on sporting merit. That means this year's league results will need to be factored in to some degree. The French league are considering 3 options: standings now, standings after 19 games or PPG for prediction. Unlike the dutch league, they look like they are having some sort of resolution that can influence european placings and promotion/relegation. For the Premier league the European places and relegation spots are going to be so controversial depending on what method they use - the 3 French options, the dutch option or play behind closed doors when 'safe'.
For us it doesn't matter a great deal. Maybe a Europa League spot or not. For others it'll be massive. I think the big Q is if the league season can't be completed then do domestic leagues award a title or not. To be honest that's our main concern currently. I think you utilise a method that awards European places and relegation but no award the title to anyone. Prize money would be sorted without spoiling the integrity of what a Champion of the league is.
It's obvious what we all want to happen. but if I had t guess what will happen then I think the league will resume behind closed doors in June/July and the league season will be completed. If not, I think they'll decide the table by ppg. I don't think there's anyway the authorities won't find a way to give the RS the title. I know the hope of a different decision will end up killing us but does anyone really believe the season will be completely voided?
There are so many unknowns about the disease that it's hard to make any judgements with a lot of certainty. It's all guesswork by everyone since so much is unknown. A big unknown is the amount of asymptomatic people since these aren't being tested. Is it 1 in 10 people, 1 in a 100, 1 in a 1000 or 1 in 3? Who really knows. That could have a massive impact.
Another unknown is beyond certain factors (such as age) what are the factors that make you susceptible to more severe symptoms? As an example why has Pablo Dybala not been able to fight off the disease in over 4 weeks (he hasn't caught it on 4 separate occasions if people are misinterpreting that story incorrectly)?
In terms of being able to return to normal then that's a big question. Realistically that will be what a vaccine has been developed, shown to work and be safe, and the pharma industry has the capacity to produce it in sufficient quantities to supply the World's population. That's a 2021 goal. That's a big ask for 2020 in my opinion.
What factors could help the World move back to some sort of normality? Probably more capacity for covid19 testing and a robust serological test being widely avalaible. Before a vaccine there could also be currently approved drugs that are shown to be effective in covid19. Regulatory path for these is easier so could be available to treat +ve Covid19 patients and reduce symptoms and death rate.
If we need to wait for a vaccine to re-start sports then a fair expectation and assumption is that we will need to wait for a vaccine to be able to go to a pub/restaurant/cinema/gig/theatre, kids go to school for 5 days a week, for travel to other countries for holiday, maybe even for long distance travel within the UK etc.. All those things are relatively non-essential in the grand scheme of things (kids could go to school in a staggered manner) but I wonder what type of world we end up returning too if that is the case. Industries, more important than sport, would be decimated.
My expectation is that social distancing will be in place for the next 6-9 months at least. That will mean no attendance at sporting events until 2021 at some point. I think social distancing measures will be relaxed gradually over time as testing capacity increases over the next few months - though I wouldn't rule out a 2nd lockdown later this year (how could that affect the 2020-21 season?).
What do this mean for sport and in particular football? In my personal opinion is that the game can't survive if it takes until a vaccine is available to re-start football in some capacity. Clubs at every level will be under threat. People might think that's bad planning by clubs but that is the absolute reality due to the contracts that are currently obligated to honour. So football will need to come back before mid 2021. Or at least make plans to do so. Think when it does it will be behind closed doors and linked to availability of testing. Testing is ramping up now so that may not be as long as people think.
What does it mean for the 2019/20 season? That's a difficult question that no-one knows the answer to. Based on what UEFA have said European places need to granted on sporting merit. That means this year's league results will need to be factored in to some degree. The French league are considering 3 options: standings now, standings after 19 games or PPG for prediction. Unlike the dutch league, they look like they are having some sort of resolution that can influence european placings and promotion/relegation. For the Premier league the European places and relegation spots are going to be so controversial depending on what method they use - the 3 French options, the dutch option or play behind closed doors when 'safe'.
For us it doesn't matter a great deal. Maybe a Europa League spot or not. For others it'll be massive. I think the big Q is if the league season can't be completed then do domestic leagues award a title or not. To be honest that's our main concern currently. I think you utilise a method that awards European places and relegation but no award the title to anyone. Prize money would be sorted without spoiling the integrity of what a Champion of the league is.
It's obvious what we all want to happen. but if I had t guess what will happen then I think the league will resume behind closed doors in June/July and the league season will be completed. If not, I think they'll decide the table by ppg. I don't think there's anyway the authorities won't find a way to give the RS the title. I know the hope of a different decision will end up killing us but does anyone really believe the season will be completely voided?
