@Joey66 stuck a fork in his foot while Harrison was helping him in his allotment.
Been out with the local LotN?
Right, again, please skip this post if you hate stats...
Had some free time this morning so carried on with keeping tabs on Armstrong's season from a data perspective. Was curious how he compared to a few useful benchmarks who all spent time in the Champ when they were young, particularly in regards to moving the ball up the pitch through passes or carries:
Wharton (elite top-level midfielder)
Garner (solid prem starter)
Iroegbunam (prem squad player)
Hackney (championship baller, not made the step up yet)
The big caveat for the rest of the post is I have normalised all the stats to be 'per 100 touches' (not literally touches of the ball, think of it more as times they have possession of the ball), rather than per 90 minutes played. This has the positive effect of hopefully stripping out some effects of team playing style/amount of possession, but the negative effect of making the assumption that a player's actions will scale up in line with getting on the ball more. Think of it more as just what the player does when they get the ball.
The other big caveats are: this is just comparing them at similar ages, it's only for 'on-ball' stuff, and it's only Armstrongs stats from this season which is a small sample size still. Athleticism is the other big signifier of a player being able to make the step up, but so far that seems pretty likely with Armstrong.
Here's the table of the raw data - note that Hackney, Garner and Iroegbunam are all a year or two older here because that's their youngest Champ season:
And here's radar charts comparing each player with Armstrong:
Interesting things to note:
- The progressive passing distance from Wharton is/was crazy, which is to be expected, but Armstrong keeps up in terms of amount of progressive passes and blows him out of the water in carries and in passes into the penalty area. A lot of that is likely due to Wharton playing deeper, so playing much longer passes and being a lot less involved near the penalty box.
- None of the other four combined the all-round inclination to both pass AND carry the ball up the pitch that Armstrong does
- Armstrong is getting significantly less touches of the ball than Wharton and Hackney
Armstrong comes out looking very, very good here I think. The big question for his development for me is: can he get on the ball and influence games more, and can he continue to be this relentlessly positive on the ball if or when he does get more touches?
Had some free time this morning so carried on with keeping tabs on Armstrong's season from a data perspective. Was curious how he compared to a few useful benchmarks who all spent time in the Champ when they were young, particularly in regards to moving the ball up the pitch through passes or carries:
Wharton (elite top-level midfielder)
Garner (solid prem starter)
Iroegbunam (prem squad player)
Hackney (championship baller, not made the step up yet)
The big caveat for the rest of the post is I have normalised all the stats to be 'per 100 touches' (not literally touches of the ball, think of it more as times they have possession of the ball), rather than per 90 minutes played. This has the positive effect of hopefully stripping out some effects of team playing style/amount of possession, but the negative effect of making the assumption that a player's actions will scale up in line with getting on the ball more. Think of it more as just what the player does when they get the ball.
The other big caveats are: this is just comparing them at similar ages, it's only for 'on-ball' stuff, and it's only Armstrongs stats from this season which is a small sample size still. Athleticism is the other big signifier of a player being able to make the step up, but so far that seems pretty likely with Armstrong.
Here's the table of the raw data - note that Hackney, Garner and Iroegbunam are all a year or two older here because that's their youngest Champ season:
And here's radar charts comparing each player with Armstrong:
Interesting things to note:
- The progressive passing distance from Wharton is/was crazy, which is to be expected, but Armstrong keeps up in terms of amount of progressive passes and blows him out of the water in carries and in passes into the penalty area. A lot of that is likely due to Wharton playing deeper, so playing much longer passes and being a lot less involved near the penalty box.
- None of the other four combined the all-round inclination to both pass AND carry the ball up the pitch that Armstrong does
- Armstrong is getting significantly less touches of the ball than Wharton and Hackney
Armstrong comes out looking very, very good here I think. The big question for his development for me is: can he get on the ball and influence games more, and can he continue to be this relentlessly positive on the ball if or when he does get more touches?
NeilMorepies
Player Valuation: £35m
Are we back to talking about Armstrong or are we you still on about @Joey66 ?
As you know, me and stats aren't the closest of friends.
But your explanation and my viewpoint on Armstrong ( if I am reading properly ) both head towards a very talented no8.
A player that's best with the space infront of him.
His ceiling is high enough, his mental side is high enough.
( His touches come down to Preston's game approach.
That's what I thought, but it's still not necessarily a given that his output scales up perfectly when more involved.
But yes, this combined with his maturity, being picked for international captaincy, his size, engine, physicality (aerial wins is a great signifier of if a young player can 'mix it' with the big boys, and his stats there are fantastic), it's a potent package. An 8 that is a threat when either carrying or passing is something special.
Looking at just stats and graphs you would probably lose me, it's the way that you explain it all that catches my full attention..
I've noticed he missed the last two matches , how extensive is his current injury?
He`s just taken leave of absence, as he`s helping @Joey66 out, prepping and bagging his festive crop.
Traitor - HA may get recalled they are measuring him up for Boxing Gloves
Paul Rideout
Player Valuation: £40m
Interesting to note that he’s only bettered by more than one player on expected assists and progressive pass distance - i would probably say that these two are loosely correlated.
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gonetomorrow
Player Valuation: £70m
Needs a game.
Thanks for putting this all together, very interesting. Backs up what I think we've all seen from him in the small amount of minutes that he's had for Everton so far. I've really no idea why we've spent so much money and signed so many no 8's when we've got a massive talent like Armstrong on our hands. I'm going to be really unhappy if Moyes is here next season and fails to integrate this lad into the starting 11.
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