Big Dunc in the sky studio tomorrow night
Match Thread Everton 1-1 West Ham United 29th September 20:00
- Thread starter HKContractDave
- Start date
Charles Hawtrey
Player Valuation: £50m
Sporting Life take....
I think there's likely money to be made on Keane to score - he has come close in the last few...
That’s because while none of Chris Richards, Marc Guehi or Maxence Lacroix scored, the latter two both had chances equating to 0.20 xG - Lacroix hitting the crossbar – and the Eagles did score from a set-piece through Jean Philippe-Mateta.
That makes it seven goals conceded from set-pieces by West Ham, so on Monday we have to revisit the centre-back goalscorer angle and take JAMES TARKOWSKI, MICHAEL KEANE and JAKE O'BRIEN TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1, 7/1 and 9/1 respectively.
Granted, those prices are shorter than last week but all of them are value in my book for plenty of reasons. West Ham's issues defending set-pieces is of course the main one, but the Toffees are excellent fro dead-ball situations too and they have players to win a lot of free-kicks in dangerous positions.
Everton (3.17) sit behind only Arsenal (3.48) for set-piece xGF this season and set-piece reliance, with 44% of the Toffees total xG coming from dead-ball situations, while no side has taken more shots (28) from such situations - nearly half (49%) of their total shots have come from set-pieces.
So, this looks like proper mis-match, and then we factor in the free-kick winning abilities of Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye, which has to be one of the reasons the Toffees have climbed the set-piece rankings, with David Moyes' men simply having more opportunities to get their big centre-backs forward and get the ball into the box.
O'Brien has had a shot in three of his five outings this season and scored twice last campaign, Michael Keane has had four shots in five games - all in Everton's last home game - and found the net three times in 18 appearances last season, while James Tarkowski has averaged 0.08 xG per 90 this term and 0.76 shots per 90 across the last three campaigns, scoring four times.
Hopefully one of them finds the net on Monday.
We also have a good referee appointment for this clash, so we'll throw a couple of darts at MATEUS FERNANDES and KYLE WALKER-PETERS TO BE CARDED at 4/1 and 11/2 due to the Grealish factor.
Walker-Peters isn't the most prolific card collector, picking up 22 across the last five seasons, but he will be directly tasked with clamping down the Everton winger who has drawn an eye-watering number of fouls of late.
Grealish has been fouled 7, 2, 6 and five times across his last four appearances, as the Toffees really have been feeding him the ball at every opportunity, with three opposing right backs getting booked in that time, so KWP is worth a swing at 11/2.
As is Fernandes, who will be playing on the right side of a midfield two and tasked with helping Walker-Peters cope with the in-cutting Grealish. We saw Dominik Szoboszlai collect a card for such a foul on Grealish last week when he dropped deeper later in the game, and the same could be on the cards for Fernandes.
The Portuguese midfielder was carded eight times at Southampton last season and six times the season prior when at Estoril in Portugal, and he looks prime candidate for Sam Barrott, a card-happy referee (5.4 cards per game this season), on Monday night.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1735 BST (26/09/25)
I think there's likely money to be made on Keane to score - he has come close in the last few...
Everton vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
That’s because while none of Chris Richards, Marc Guehi or Maxence Lacroix scored, the latter two both had chances equating to 0.20 xG - Lacroix hitting the crossbar – and the Eagles did score from a set-piece through Jean Philippe-Mateta.
That makes it seven goals conceded from set-pieces by West Ham, so on Monday we have to revisit the centre-back goalscorer angle and take JAMES TARKOWSKI, MICHAEL KEANE and JAKE O'BRIEN TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1, 7/1 and 9/1 respectively.
Granted, those prices are shorter than last week but all of them are value in my book for plenty of reasons. West Ham's issues defending set-pieces is of course the main one, but the Toffees are excellent fro dead-ball situations too and they have players to win a lot of free-kicks in dangerous positions.
Everton (3.17) sit behind only Arsenal (3.48) for set-piece xGF this season and set-piece reliance, with 44% of the Toffees total xG coming from dead-ball situations, while no side has taken more shots (28) from such situations - nearly half (49%) of their total shots have come from set-pieces.
So, this looks like proper mis-match, and then we factor in the free-kick winning abilities of Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye, which has to be one of the reasons the Toffees have climbed the set-piece rankings, with David Moyes' men simply having more opportunities to get their big centre-backs forward and get the ball into the box.
O'Brien has had a shot in three of his five outings this season and scored twice last campaign, Michael Keane has had four shots in five games - all in Everton's last home game - and found the net three times in 18 appearances last season, while James Tarkowski has averaged 0.08 xG per 90 this term and 0.76 shots per 90 across the last three campaigns, scoring four times.
Hopefully one of them finds the net on Monday.
We also have a good referee appointment for this clash, so we'll throw a couple of darts at MATEUS FERNANDES and KYLE WALKER-PETERS TO BE CARDED at 4/1 and 11/2 due to the Grealish factor.
Walker-Peters isn't the most prolific card collector, picking up 22 across the last five seasons, but he will be directly tasked with clamping down the Everton winger who has drawn an eye-watering number of fouls of late.
Grealish has been fouled 7, 2, 6 and five times across his last four appearances, as the Toffees really have been feeding him the ball at every opportunity, with three opposing right backs getting booked in that time, so KWP is worth a swing at 11/2.
As is Fernandes, who will be playing on the right side of a midfield two and tasked with helping Walker-Peters cope with the in-cutting Grealish. We saw Dominik Szoboszlai collect a card for such a foul on Grealish last week when he dropped deeper later in the game, and the same could be on the cards for Fernandes.
The Portuguese midfielder was carded eight times at Southampton last season and six times the season prior when at Estoril in Portugal, and he looks prime candidate for Sam Barrott, a card-happy referee (5.4 cards per game this season), on Monday night.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1735 BST (26/09/25)
So we going to win or not?Sporting Life take....
I think there's likely money to be made on Keane to score - he has come close in the last few...
Everton vs West Ham
Despite firing a blank last week with Crystal Palace’s centre-backs against West Ham, we’ll be going back in on Everton centre-backs this weekend.
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
That’s because while none of Chris Richards, Marc Guehi or Maxence Lacroix scored, the latter two both had chances equating to 0.20 xG - Lacroix hitting the crossbar – and the Eagles did score from a set-piece through Jean Philippe-Mateta.
That makes it seven goals conceded from set-pieces by West Ham, so on Monday we have to revisit the centre-back goalscorer angle and take JAMES TARKOWSKI, MICHAEL KEANE and JAKE O'BRIEN TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1, 7/1 and 9/1 respectively.
Granted, those prices are shorter than last week but all of them are value in my book for plenty of reasons. West Ham's issues defending set-pieces is of course the main one, but the Toffees are excellent fro dead-ball situations too and they have players to win a lot of free-kicks in dangerous positions.
Everton (3.17) sit behind only Arsenal (3.48) for set-piece xGF this season and set-piece reliance, with 44% of the Toffees total xG coming from dead-ball situations, while no side has taken more shots (28) from such situations - nearly half (49%) of their total shots have come from set-pieces.
So, this looks like proper mis-match, and then we factor in the free-kick winning abilities of Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye, which has to be one of the reasons the Toffees have climbed the set-piece rankings, with David Moyes' men simply having more opportunities to get their big centre-backs forward and get the ball into the box.
O'Brien has had a shot in three of his five outings this season and scored twice last campaign, Michael Keane has had four shots in five games - all in Everton's last home game - and found the net three times in 18 appearances last season, while James Tarkowski has averaged 0.08 xG per 90 this term and 0.76 shots per 90 across the last three campaigns, scoring four times.
Hopefully one of them finds the net on Monday.
We also have a good referee appointment for this clash, so we'll throw a couple of darts at MATEUS FERNANDES and KYLE WALKER-PETERS TO BE CARDED at 4/1 and 11/2 due to the Grealish factor.
Walker-Peters isn't the most prolific card collector, picking up 22 across the last five seasons, but he will be directly tasked with clamping down the Everton winger who has drawn an eye-watering number of fouls of late.
Grealish has been fouled 7, 2, 6 and five times across his last four appearances, as the Toffees really have been feeding him the ball at every opportunity, with three opposing right backs getting booked in that time, so KWP is worth a swing at 11/2.
As is Fernandes, who will be playing on the right side of a midfield two and tasked with helping Walker-Peters cope with the in-cutting Grealish. We saw Dominik Szoboszlai collect a card for such a foul on Grealish last week when he dropped deeper later in the game, and the same could be on the cards for Fernandes.
The Portuguese midfielder was carded eight times at Southampton last season and six times the season prior when at Estoril in Portugal, and he looks prime candidate for Sam Barrott, a card-happy referee (5.4 cards per game this season), on Monday night.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1735 BST (26/09/25)
The only niggle I have in my head is, Moyes will have set his plan to play Potters West Ham, and Moyes being Moyes, won't stray from that. Nuno will know exactly how we'll set up.
blue in oxford
Player Valuation: £5m
i fear 2 draws is best we can expect
Fun fact
Neal maupays only goal for Everton was against Moyes’ West Ham
Neal maupays only goal for Everton was against Moyes’ West Ham
JobForTheMoyes
Player Valuation: £50m
What can Nuno actually do with two days of prep? Soucek is suspended so they are in a bad way for set pieces
There’s not a lot Nuno can do
Fun fact there wasn’t much Sam allardyce could do either when he became our manager and Rooney bagged a hattrick against Moyes’ West Ham in a 4-0 win back in 2017
Games CAN be won in a team talk before games.
Managers are sacked cos players give up trying for managers.
JobForTheMoyes
Player Valuation: £50m
Yeah, but that West Ham team was rubbish. We have a stronger team and are better on the ball. It should really be a routine win.
supertoffee98
Player Valuation: £1m
Fun fact
I was in the Lower Gwladys that game and for obvious architectural reasons was unable to see what was probably the most historic goal in the history of this club
supertoffee98
Player Valuation: £1m
Probably not a lot
Look at Moyes' first game when he came back, bit more energy but essentially same old. Once we played Spurs the energy completely changed.
JobForTheMoyes
Player Valuation: £50m
Just lump it into the box and they’ll crack. Grealish should win a few free kicks that will yield a few goals.
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