Relegation 2022/23

[Lanolin]

Problem with statistics and runs of form at the bottom is it doesn’t account for one off games. No wins in 12 can disappear in one game and all the ppg is out of the window if they’re the three points that keep a team up. Anyone who looked at our ppg last season and our fixtures against Newcastle, United, Chelsea Leicester (x2) would have said we were down, but we broke the statistical pattern and at the bottom even just breaking it once can be crucial to staying up.

It makes most predictions on relegation completely pointless. Southampton got 4 points from United and Chelsea away yet zero from Leeds and Brentford.

All you can really do is look who is playing well at the moment and hope that points can be taken in periods team play well. We’ve taken a fair few in this decent spell which is good. Palace Leicester Leeds have been punished recently. Could all change though.

Yeah I remember saying the same last year. When you get to this stage the swing on individual games can be absolutely massive so it’s impossible to predict points totals, especially when things are so tight to begin with and teams down there are playing each other.

 

[matty1878]

Statistically it's probable.

so is anything

 

[matty1878]

View attachment 206592

and there is nobody cut adrift bottom 3 wise

 

[davek]

and there is nobody cut adrift bottom 3 wise

There will be soon.

 

[davek]

so is anything

That's not true. If I were to say to you it'd take as low as 32 points or as high as 42 points to survive neither would be probable.

34 or 35 points is in the realm of possible outcomes though.

But for me 36 points is in probable territory.

None of the bottom 9 can achieve a point per game all season. It's very likely that at least 3 cant achieve anywhere near one ppg based on what they've managed all season - or in the last block of 10 games. That would mean that 34/35/36 point totals to get safe become very feasible.

 

[knowing your history]

Not sure again why there is no chance that 35/36 points will be the mark.

We get to 37 points, I think we are safe.

4 points min in the next 3 games and then a win against Fulham. We only need then 5 more points from our remaining 7 games.....

Are you factoring in getting to 37 points before or after the Bournemouth game?

It was a minor miracle that safety was somehow secured before the final day considering how precarious the position was a month before with Burnley winning. Thankfully losing at Arsenal didn't matter but it wouldn't have been great 4-1 down and praying Burnley didn't score v Newcastle for last few minutes.

Last days are total lotteries. Of course what happened in the 90s gives people confidence but I really wouldn't fancy having to win v Bournemouth (and possibly by a few goals) if they rock up with 5 at the back and pace on the break.

I'd be pleasantly surprised if the team are on 35-36 points going into the last day. Hopefully I'm wrong and Bournemouth might be out of it themselves so could present one of those mutually exclusive draw situations where ball just gets passed around the centre circle in injury time.

 

[knowing your history]

Yeah I remember saying the same last year. When you get to this stage the swing on individual games can be absolutely massive so it’s impossible to predict points totals, especially when things are so tight to begin with and teams down there are playing each other.

End of last season was quite interesting, there was a significant pick up for all three teams who had barren winter months (Everton, Leeds and Burnley).

Think it was a year ago that Iwobi scored in 96th minute v Newcastle. From that game it was a run of 17 points from final 12 games. In same period Leeds with Marsch coming in took 15 points from final 10 games but could've still gone down in the final minute of last day.

Burnley in the last 10 actually took 14 points aswell.

So all three well above a point per game. Any team that gets that ratio in the run comfortably stays up apart from Southampton who are going to need 15 points from their final 11 games to have any chance.

What it does show is draws aren't actually that crucial unless it's obviously away to a top half team or the requirement on final day. Leicester at home felt like two points dropped but in the end it was balanced out by beating Man. United and Chelsea either side at Goodison.

Could see the same happening this time. Everyone expects Fulham to be a win, is a 1-1 but get those lost points from beating Newcastle.

 

[jinkyali]

I’ll still never be able to explain how this group of players won with ten men vs a flying Newcastle team, beat a flying Leicester on their own patch even after gifting them an equaliser, then saw off Tuchel’s Chelsea, beat United, and came back from two down at half time to a good Palace team.

It seemed perfectly normal at the time but looking back I still don’t know how it happened.

This.

Weren't our goals v Utd and Chelsea deflections?

Keane scoring a worldy v Palace.
Myko scoring a worldy v Leicester.

 

[jinkyali]

You’ve conceded 9 in the last 3 though haven’t you? So seems like the defensive issues may have crept back in? I’ve only seen the game against us so maybe that you’ve just been unlucky but from the outside I would say the perception is that you’re still a bit shaky defensively.

The more Joe Worrall plays for Forest the more they will concede.
For all the money they've spent having him in defence is laughable.

 

[Miked1e]

Are you factoring in getting to 37 points before or after the Bournemouth game?

It was a minor miracle that safety was somehow secured before the final day considering how precarious the position was a month before with Burnley winning. Thankfully losing at Arsenal didn't matter but it wouldn't have been great 4-1 down and praying Burnley didn't score v Newcastle for last few minutes.

Last days are total lotteries. Of course what happened in the 90s gives people confidence but I really wouldn't fancy having to win v Bournemouth (and possibly by a few goals) if they rock up with 5 at the back and pace on the break.

I'd be pleasantly surprised if the team are on 35-36 points going into the last day. Hopefully I'm wrong and Bournemouth might be out of it themselves so could present one of those mutually exclusive draw situations where ball just gets passed around the centre circle in injury time.

Well before that last game….

Safety will be secured before we go into those last 3 games.

On a side note. I learnt during the World Cup the reason why final group games are played at the same time. Was when West Germany played Austria and new that a 1-0 win would see them both through. So they did just that plying the ball side to side… like a Martinez team vs a Martinez team.

 

[catcherintherye]

Even the most optimistic person on here would have to admit winning at Chelsea would be the biggest result of the season seeing as our away form is so poor, I dread to think where we will be if we dont get at least 3 points from the next 3 games, more than likely be back in the zone with 8 left to play which includes Newcastle, Brighton & Man City.....

Yes the Brentford win was needed but we are still in trouble unless we back that up with points, means nothing if we lose the next 3.....

If we get 2 points from the next 3, we will not be in the relegation zone.

We then have 1 top 6 side to play in our final 8. Newcastles form has fallen off a cliff. It is a great run in. Brighton are about as good as Forest in home games, and with their focus likely on the cup, that gives us an outside chance.

Bottom line is, we are big favourites to stay up as things stand, with fixtures to come.

 

[catcherintherye]

That's absolutely true, but the point here is that there's so many teams invoved in this that you can say with some assuredness that not all of them will buck the trend of what they've been doing for the last 27 games or so. There will defo be a team that does what we did late last season and beats other clubs unexpectedly to get out of it. But most wont.

The fact its 8 other teams, means it's very likely the best they do is keep to a similar trajectory, which has survival at 35/36. However if you factor in form, the more likely outcome is probably a little lower.

The tail risk scenario in that, is 3 teams fall away. When they are 9 teams involved, that is not that unlikely. In reality, Southampton, West Ham, Leeds, Palace and to a degree Bournemouth/Leicester are on form to fall away and collapse. It only needs 3 to continue.

I think it's quite unlikely it remains this tight until the end of the season. Teams start to get cut off. It may only be 1 or 2, so it goes from.3 from 9, to say 2 from 7, or 1 from 5 or whatever.

What I'll say, is it's actually pretty difficult to turn around a poor run of form so late into a season, without the ability to freshen the dressing room up. Even someone like Allardyce, who is the relegation specialist would typically take 6-8 games to get his methods embedded before results turn around. Nobody has that time now.

 

[4737carlin]

Could do with Arsenal not going to extra time here...

 

[PITA]

I’ll still never be able to explain how this group of players won with ten men vs a flying Newcastle team, beat a flying Leicester on their own patch even after gifting them an equaliser, then saw off Tuchel’s Chelsea, beat United, and came back from two down at half time to a good Palace team.

It seemed perfectly normal at the time but looking back I still don’t know how it happened.

It's called football which is why page-after-page of "I think this", "I think that" is a bit pointless.

 

[Alan Whittle]

Could do with Arsenal not going to extra time here...

Blimey.....last time Palace scored Neville Chamberlain was still in fecking Munich. An extra half hour isn’t going to hinder them.
Get yourself a fresh box of straws to clutch ffs.