Farhad Moshiri

[catcherintherye]

Be a few depleting factors for Moshiri in negotiations mate, his debt, remaining stadium costs, loss making high cost business and likely capital required for the next few years to keep the business going, cover its losses and pay its liabilities.

In his favour The Everton name, PL football inflation and appreciation, new ground eventually, Goodison site, squad of sellable assets, guaranteed 160-180 mill annual turnover provided we stay in the league.

They will be in and around the two negotiation positions, in terms of coming up with a price.

Moshiri if he does sell isn’t getting anywhere near his investment, he’s taking a big haircut if he sells and basically putting his hands up and admitting hes failed and cutting his losses.

In our favour, is the business has been ran badly for 20 years and awfully over the last 6/7. It can't be ran much worse. But there is a new stadium, in an opportune area on the horizon, and for international investors it's an asset play with the depreciating pound. There are some positives there.

Likewise, for whatever reason some idiot valued Chelsea at 4bn. Liverpool probably at 3bn, United may go for 6bn. A PL team, with a new ground on the horizon, could, in that insane world be worth 1bn. You then have to start discounting back costs that are due in the business.
I should add, I have no idea how any of the football clubs get said valuation. Some of them are at 8 x sales. That's what expensive software businesses sell for.

 

[Neiler]

In our favour, is the business has been ran badly for 20 years and awfully over the last 6/7. It can't be ran much worse. But there is a new stadium, in an opportune area on the horizon, and for international investors it's an asset play with the depreciating pound. There are some positives there.

Likewise, for whatever reason some idiot valued Chelsea at 4bn. Liverpool probably at 3bn, United may go for 6bn. A PL team, with a new ground on the horizon, could, in that insane world be worth 1bn. You then have to start discounting back costs that are due in the business.
I should add, I have no idea how any of the football clubs get said valuation. Some of them are at 8 x sales. That's what expensive software businesses sell for.

It’s not really in our favour at all mate, it’s in his, Everton won’t get any money if he sells. The only thing that should matter to us, is the caliber of owner and how they intend to fund the stadium and the loss making business because we’re in trouble without Moshiri cashing cheques to write off our losses. Without that we’re in debt or selling players. Really for us it doesn’t matter if Everton is sold for a pound as long as it’s the right owner.

Personally Im a bit concerned as much as he gets battered on here, Bill to my mind built a number safeguards in his sake to Moshiri, staggering the sale of his shares to investment and progress made by Moshiri. We don’t have that protection now and we haven't been in this realm of sale before, in a way we’ve been spoilt by good will owners, bar Johnson and he may well have just been incompetent and naïve, getting in way over his head,


Of course in the bigger picture, if he sells it might be Usminov pulling up the ladder as I believe and always they are both in cahoots in regard to their investment in us, i wonder if we sell what contacts Usminov has that he cultivate interest in around the world. If they sell to the Americas they just want rid and have accepted a missive haircut, just to stem their financial blood flow.

 

[Neiler]

In our favour, is the business has been ran badly for 20 years and awfully over the last 6/7. It can't be ran much worse. But there is a new stadium, in an opportune area on the horizon, and for international investors it's an asset play with the depreciating pound. There are some positives there.

Likewise, for whatever reason some idiot valued Chelsea at 4bn. Liverpool probably at 3bn, United may go for 6bn. A PL team, with a new ground on the horizon, could, in that insane world be worth 1bn. You then have to start discounting back costs that are due in the business.
I should add, I have no idea how any of the football clubs get said valuation. Some of them are at 8 x sales. That's what expensive software businesses sell for.

On valuations you have to look at what the really top clubs earn, they are commercially huge, don’t need capital to run, in profit, turning over huge amounts of guaranteed income, year on year, it’s not a bad place to leave your money for a decade or so in a top CL club, you can never be certain but appreciation has gone one way for almost 30 years now.

We are probably the worst run business in the league, we have family jewels, but they need a lot of work, effort and finance to restore. We aren’t anywhere near a level of 1billion valuation, be lucky to get North of 200 -300 mill in my opinion, be staggered and slightly concerned for our new owners if it were more, thats pre stadium being finished, which is obviously a 500 mill asset.

 

[catcherintherye]

On valuations you have to look at what the really top clubs earn, they are commercially huge, don’t need capital to run, in profit, turning over huge amounts of guaranteed income, year on year, it’s not a bad place to leave your money for a decade or so in a top CL club, you can never be certain but appreciation has gone one way for almost 30 years now.

We are probably the worst run business in the league, we have family jewels, but they need a lot of work, effort and finance to restore. We aren’t anywhere near a level of 1billion valuation, be lucky to get North of 200 -300 mill in my opinion, be staggered and slightly concerned for our new owners if it were more, thats pre stadium being finished, which is obviously a 500 mill asset.

I do agree with a lot of that. I think the 1bn is peak value, but you then have to subtract debt and other commitments.

The only other point I'd say, is those top clubs are not actually that well run. In terms of profitability, they are low margin businesses, who dont always make profits. Even if you use a 5 year average on profitability, they are often being valued at over 100 x earnings, which is insane. They're not even massively asset heavy businesses (in a conventional sense). They also require huge capital spends most years to remain at the top. It's sort of why I see people bailing.

Like honestly, in a conventional valuation, I'd have the top teams at maybe 500-1bn, and Everton I think would not be worth the debt.

 

[jonnyboy316]

In our favour, is the business has been ran badly for 20 years and awfully over the last 6/7. It can't be ran much worse. But there is a new stadium, in an opportune area on the horizon, and for international investors it's an asset play with the depreciating pound. There are some positives there.

Likewise, for whatever reason some idiot valued Chelsea at 4bn. Liverpool probably at 3bn, United may go for 6bn. A PL team, with a new ground on the horizon, could, in that insane world be worth 1bn. You then have to start discounting back costs that are due in the business.
I should add, I have no idea how any of the football clubs get said valuation. Some of them are at 8 x sales. That's what expensive software businesses sell for.

I think there is one more big play for the premier league which is to ditch providers like SKy and BT and do their own Netflix style App. Also for the established top clubs there is also the super league carrot for new owners

 

[Eggs]

….from this mornings BBC gossip column;

 

[jonnyboy316]

I do agree with a lot of that. I think the 1bn is peak value, but you then have to subtract debt and other commitments.

The only other point I'd say, is those top clubs are not actually that well run. In terms of profitability, they are low margin businesses, who dont always make profits. Even if you use a 5 year average on profitability, they are often being valued at over 100 x earnings, which is insane. They're not even massively asset heavy businesses (in a conventional sense). They also require huge capital spends most years to remain at the top. It's sort of why I see people bailing.

Like honestly, in a conventional valuation, I'd have the top teams at maybe 500-1bn, and Everton I think would not be worth the debt.

With these profit and sustainability rules in place which are set to tighten surely new owners with a track record of success in running sports teams would be the way to go rather than oil money. It is possible to compete to a degree with less if you are smart

In terms of valuation I can’t see anything like a billion considering our current financial position and the real risk of relegation

 

[MisterJ]

Critical moment for me was sacking Silva, the dude had it, the summer transfer window before his sacking unravelled us, Brands poor performance did Silva in my opinion, left him short at centre back and midfield and a list of players as long as your arm who would never contribute to the club.

Silva proved year 1 here and at Fulham, he knows his stuff.

I just think it was too early in his career for Silva.

I agree, he does have something about him, but I'd like to be interested in him as potentially our next manager now he's gained more experience at Fulham.

I'm not saying he should be out next manager, I'm generally against going back to past choices, just that who he is now would be a much better fit for us

 

[MisterJ]

It is interesting how there are so many takeover rumours around a number of premier league clubs at the moment; somebody on here said it the other day, has the bottom started to fall out of football?

 

[malcson]

That's a reason prospective bidders probably take one look and then walk away, they see some bloke who has been part of the furniture for 30+ years with his 1.2% of the shares who wants to have a say in everything that goes on. Any sensible business person is going to be like 'no thanks' far too much hassle.

Not really his position in the club could easily be changed he is only a minor share holder now. I suspect him staying on was part of the agreement with Moshiri to sell his shares. Any new owner would not need to honour that and Kenwright has no control on who Moshiri chooses to sell to.

 

[4737carlin]

Not really his position in the club could easily be changed he is only a minor share holder now. I suspect him staying on was part of the agreement with Moshiri to sell his shares. Any new owner would not need to honour that and Kenwright has no control on who Moshiri chooses to sell to.

Yeah it's just people trying too make up rubbish to discredit Kenwright, if anyone walks away from buying us it's because they see what a mess Moshiri has made of a stable club and can't risk fixing it.

 

[The binman chronicles]

It is interesting how there are so many takeover rumours around a number of premier league clubs at the moment; somebody on here said it the other day, has the bottom started to fall out of football?

Yes perhaps, but the bottom has fallen out of most things. If other businesses/cash is squeezed why not sell the football club when it is worth 4 billion more than you paid and might be the peak of what it will be for the foreseeable. And actually they didn't even pay that as it was loaned and they probably took a billion out over their time there. The Glazers may look like stupid rednecks but that was one of the smartest moves in history. Money for nothing.

 

[toffee matt]

It is interesting how there are so many takeover rumours around a number of premier league clubs at the moment; somebody on here said it the other day, has the bottom started to fall out of football?

Yanks at LFC and Manchester United went all out for the Super League and have no interest without it.

Our situation is more linked to Moshiri and Russia

 

[MikeH72]

Yeah it's just people trying too make up rubbish to discredit Kenwright, if anyone walks away from buying us it's because they see what a mess Moshiri has made of a stable club and can't risk fixing it.

I don’t understand why you’re still coming at us with this angle of Moshiri vs Kenwright, as if they’re opposing forces. They are very much both a part of the same failed structure, both need to be volleyed as far away from the club as humanly possibly before it’s too late (it may already be too late). That’s of course if you’re not just being a massive WUM and looking for bites of course.

 

[DanEFC92]

Yeah it's just people trying too make up rubbish to discredit Kenwright, if anyone walks away from buying us it's because they see what a mess Moshiri has made of a stable club and can't risk fixing it.

Is Kenwright your da or something