Top 4 ?

[messymascot]

Apologies you are right, to get top 4 we need to over take Chelsea (51 points) and Leicester (56 points).

Which means we have to win 6 more points than Chelsea and 10 more points than Leicester in 10 games. Can anyone see that? Surely the most optimistic cant see that.

We should change the name of this thread to Top 7? Failure to not get European football would be hugely disappointing and in my view a failure by the manager/players/club!

We should have strengthened in January when it was still on, we didn`t and we could pay the price for that. Even paying a few million over the odds for a player would be worth it wouldn`t it?

We will have to see what happens regarding recruitment in the summer but I cant see big names coming in, more likely to get a few Ben Godfrey type signings. The trouble is as we improve other teams are aswell, we need to improve at a greater rate to get above them.

To get top 4 we need Leicester to collapse its possible but that late win at Brighton for them might just be the difference.

I totally agree we need Europe even if its that conference league. In fact that might suit as we could win that and it would give us a trophy. It would get the players used to being rotated.

 

[Zatara]

Statistically, winning six matches instead of four out of a series of 10 is pretty significant - not fine. It's turning 20% of your matches into extra wins giving you 50% more wins in total (2 more added to your baseline 4). Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

Regardless, good luck to you guys. You're far more hopeful and less cynical than I am.

Well, the baseline is 5 wins from 10.

So its a swing of one game in either direction to be glass half full or glass half empty

well yeah, smarter recruitment wouldn't go amiss like and a structured plan in place, just seems to be a mishmash at the moment.

I give kudos Leicester do decent business and don't sign as many flops as us, or it seems that way, i don't watch enough of them; I would have been all over Maddison when they bought him and tielmans but I don't really care about them, I want us to get it right and stop making a botch of everything.

I think there are some similarities with us and Leicester.

Richarlison / Barnes
DCL / Vardy
Doucoure / Tielemans
Allan / Ndidi
James / Maddison
Godfrey / Fofana
Digne / Justin


Not the 'same' players but their best players and ours are in similar positions.

Aside from DCL/Vardy their players are all younger than ours in their respective positions. Could that mean that in general they arent as susceptible to injuries?

Id also say that they have stronger players in several other positions as well.

It shows you the importance of picking up these young starlets and moulding them into stars.

We need 3 of these a summer.

Unfortunately won’t be happening we will have to buy in the gamble market again this summer.

Unless we sell Richarlison, Kean or both

That makes no sense to me at all...why would we sell 2 young highly rated players (i can understand the argument for selling Kean) ?

Surely we need to add to the young high potential group by selling players like Gomes, Bernard, Tosun and Iwobi and also moving on high value players such as Keane and Mina who can be replaced by one top notch younger player...

We'll have money to spend as well with Moshiri injecting £200mil and the £30mil from Usmanov -- as well as the FFP benefits from sales where we can leverage up.

I just don't think Carlo trusts these players to play any other way, it's poor really. Highly paid top flight players and they're levels below their peers technically it seems.

He has of course said he wants more technical ability added to the squad.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

It would but it can happen and as I've said above I will keep believing and if I'm wrong it's only me that will be disappointed as no one else should be influenced by anything but their own believes. However as I have just found out belief is a really bad characteristic. Should never try and show confidence as that my burst some peoples negative persona.

However, it's unrealistic as much is beyond our manager and players control.

 

[bignev23]

Ya don't get top four with home form like we have.

 

[Zatara]

Very good results for us yesterday keeping Villa (5pts) and Arsenal (4pts and a game in hand) behind us.

Palace H
Brighton A
Spurs H
Arsenal A
Villa H
West Ham A

6 massive games coming up.

In the words of Uhtred Ragnarson;

"Destiny is All"

 

[messymascot]

I think the results yesterday have made top 8 more secure but made top 6 harder. I think we are now in a 4 way battle with Spurs, West Ham and RS to finish 5th-8th. However all 4 will still be harbouring hopes of a Leicester or Chelsea capitulation and nicking 4th. We need to take a minimum of 4 points from our games with Villa. Hopefully Arsenal are in Semi Final of Europa League and Spurs are thinking about not getting injured for League Cup final. Maybe by the time we play Sheffield United they will already be relegated.

 

[WA Toffee]

Apologies you are right, to get top 4 we need to over take Chelsea (51 points) and Leicester (56 points).

Which means we have to win 6 more points than Chelsea and 10 more points than Leicester in 10 games. Can anyone see that? Surely the most optimistic cant see that.

We should change the name of this thread to Top 7? Failure to not get European football would be hugely disappointing and in my view a failure by the manager/players/club!

We should have strengthened in January when it was still on, we didn`t and we could pay the price for that. Even paying a few million over the odds for a player would be worth it wouldn`t it?

We will have to see what happens regarding recruitment in the summer but I cant see big names coming in, more likely to get a few Ben Godfrey type signings. The trouble is as we improve other teams are aswell, we need to improve at a greater rate to get above them.

Win our game in hand and we are only 2 points behind Chelsea in 4th. We don't need to catch Chelsea AND Leicester, we only need to catch one of them.
Not saying it will be easy, but it's not as hard as you suggest. We only need to lose 1 game less than Chelsea

 

[messymascot]

Win our game in hand and we are only 2 points behind Chelsea in 4th. We don't need to catch Chelsea AND Leicester, we only need to catch one of them.
Not saying it will be easy, but it's not as hard as you suggest. We only need to lose 1 game less than Chelsea

I've done predictions and allowed scope for surprises here and there and I think from 3rd to 8th will be covered by 5 points so it could be fine margins. My last recalculation put us 7th 4 points off. We will need to get more points than all teams as our goal difference is so poor if we finish level on points with a team we will finish below them in the table. Next 2 are critical and also need to play Villa game in hand before Grealish returns. I still believe but its going to be extremely difficult.

 

[Lewy007]

I've done predictions and allowed scope for surprises here and there and I think from 3rd to 8th will be covered by 5 points so it could be fine margins. My last recalculation put us 7th 4 points off. We will need to get more points than all teams as our goal difference is so poor if we finish level on points with a team we will finish below them in the table. Next 2 are critical and also need to play Villa game in hand before Grealish returns. I still believe but its going to be extremely difficult.

Seen Chelsea’s last 4 games, hopefully that’s a slip up, hopefully they slip up in between playing Porto in a few weeks also, Chelsea are there for the taking just going off our form and theirs it’s unlikely

 

[messymascot]

Seen Chelsea’s last 4 games, hopefully that’s a slip up, hopefully they slip up in between playing Porto in a few weeks also, Chelsea are there for the taking just going off our form and theirs it’s unlikely

This season is so difficult to predict. Also by last few some teams will have their flip flops on so might get more surprises than expected.

 

[Lewy007]

This season is so difficult to predict. Also by last few some teams will have their flip flops on so might get more surprises than expected.

Be funny if it came down to us beating city last game of the season to edge Liverpool out of top 4 and city just roll over

 

[Mitch Ward's Minder]

To get top 4 we need Leicester to collapse its possible but that late win at Brighton for them might just be the difference.

I totally agree we need Europe even if its that conference league. In fact that might suit as we could win that and it would give us a trophy. It would get the players used to being rotated.

The more I think about it, the more I'm not too fussed if we only qualify for the UECL. Still play Thursday anyway against what you'd consider easier opposition and most likely in more Central European areas and Scandanavia, so hopefully not much travelling. Win it and we're in UEL the following year, so next season do you take a hit in the league to win a trophy and qualify for euro competition the following year?

Unfortunately I just can't see us getting top 4, especially with our injuries and patchy form. I do think there'll be like 4 points in it between 5th and 9th, so it's very fine margins. April will be the tell-tale month and a good indicator of where teams will finish.

WHU 49pts - Wolves(a), Leicester(h), Newcastle(a), Chelsea(h) - Probably 4-6pts = 53-56pts (fairly easy run in, so we need to be ahead of these by end of April)
Spurs 48pts - Newcastle(a), Man U (h), Everton(a) - Likely 4-7pts = 52-55pts
RS 46pts - Arsenal(a), Villa(h), Leeds(a), Newcastle(h) - Potential to win all, lose all; 3-12 pts = 49-58pts
Everton 46pts - Palace(h), BHA(a), Spurs(h), Arsenal(a)
Arsenal 42pts - Liverpool(h), Sheff U(a), Fulham(h), Everton(h) - likely 6-8pts = 48-50pts (with a pretty easy run in potential for further 12 pts)

Realistically I think we need 8 points minimum in April to stay in the hunt, starting with winning the next two games.

 

[BrendanGOT]

The commentators saying Spurs will now push for top 4 after their win yet if we win our next game we go above them, level on pts with West Ham and only 2 pts off Chelsea. While I don't think we've any hope of top 4 I just find it funny that Spurs are now tipped for it but we arent.

Our game upcoming games with West Ham and Spurs are looking like massive games now for 5th and 6th spot. All 6 pts needed there.

 

[Lanolin]

Well, the baseline is 5 wins from 10.

So its a swing of one game in either direction to be glass half full or glass half empty

The baseline is moveable though isn't it. We've got 6 home games left, and we've only won one of our last 10 home games against PL opposition inside 90 minutes, with 2 draws and 7 defeats. So from a form perspective, even a huge upturn in form where we get 2 wins and two draws from the next 6 home games would basically leave us needing to win all 4 away games to have a chance. Top 4 is still possible, but it's now incredibly unlikely i think. We may make top 6, but if i'm honest i'm not even sure we're going to hang on to top 8 the way things are looking.

 

[Saint Domingo]

Let’s just try and beat Crystal Palace