There are lies, damn lies, and statistics

[Brennan]

I’m all for stats but sometimes it’s a bit of a waste of time.

When was the last time that there were seven teams at the bottom all within three points of each other at the half way stage ?

Considering we have been absolutely awful by most metrics, it should give us hope that we are currently only 4 points off 14th.

It would suggest that a relatively modest upturn in form would have us safe. We don’t need a huge turnaround, this isn’t a 9 points off safety with ten games to go situation.

 

[Shevin Keedy]

Average number of managers required to be in place to ensure PL survival : 1

We need to increase our manager count by almost 100% if we want to survive this season.

 

[slipstream86]

Too Long.

And I never trust any statistics I didn't make up myself.

But I reckon we need to average 1.27 pts per game over 18 games.

#deadcatbounce

Do you mean you don't trust that the source data is accurate? Or that the analysis has been selective with it's variables and data ranges with which to present an intentionally biased result?

1.27 P/g would put us on 38 end of season, which would have been enough to escape the drop in all of the previous 10 PL seasons. Points to guarantee survival range from 29 (2020-2021) to 38 (2015-2016).

 

[slipstream86]

I’m all for stats but sometimes it’s a bit of a waste of time.

When was the last time that there were seven teams at the bottom all within three points of each other at the half way stage ?

Considering we have been absolutely awful by most metrics, it should give us hope that we are currently only 4 points off 14th.

It would suggest that a relatively modest upturn in form would have us safe. We don’t need a huge turnaround, this isn’t a 9 points off safety with ten games to go situation.

Only one that comes close is 2010/2011. 15th-20th were separated by 3 points after match week 19.

Interestingly, the dizzy heights of 40 points would have been required for guaranteed safety that season.

 

[slipstream86]

Those were the games we needed results. The board dawdled and didn’t get a new man in charge after the Bournemouth meltdown. They had the whole World Cup to scope out new men too - the lack of foresight is incorrigible. We were doomed after those results, inevitable now isn’t it?

Wouldn't say inevitable, perhaps statistically likely, yes.

 

[degsy]

Do you mean you don't trust that the source data is accurate? Or that the analysis has been selective with it's variables and data ranges with which to present an intentionally biased result?

1.27 P/g would put us on 38 end of season, which would have been enough to escape the drop in all of the previous 10 PL seasons. Points to guarantee survival range from 29 (2020-2021) to 38 (2015-2016).

No I'm mean I think 1.12 pts per game is cutting it fine, because points can only come in 1s or 3s - hence 1.27.

Edit; Unless we Hire Lazarus or 'Lucky' Johnny McJammy it's all moot anyway.

If The Club (more or less) as we know it, is still here for its Sesquicentennial Anniversary in 5yrs time somebody(s) will have done a good job.

 

[brieverton]

I just don't think we're good enough and the cumulative effect of this run we're on has done for us. The board have left it inexplicably and unforgivably late to take action. We might miss safety by a tight margin or not, and this is what we'll reflect on.

It's possible to stay up of course, but the comparison from last season to this, is stark.

I think the whole club, from top to bottom, is exhausted and disconsolate. We absolutely reek of relegation.

If the new manager can get us out of this, it's the whole stadium that should be named after him, let alone a stand.

 

[TheNinja]

Average number of managers required to be in place to ensure PL survival : 1

We need to increase our manager count by almost 100% if we want to survive this season.

If we increase our manager count by 100%, we'll still have 0...

 

[Shevin Keedy]

If we increase our manager count by 100%, we'll still have 0...

Oh yeah that's right. So we need 50% of a new manager I mean.

 

[slipstream86]

Oh yeah that's right. So we need 50% of a new manager I mean.

50% of fat Sam = 100% of any normal sized manager