slipstream86
Player Valuation: £2.5m
Here's some statistical analysis for the current predicament we find ourselves in that whoever now comes in to save the day will have to deal with.
I have no bias for doom and gloom, nor blind optimism, just stating the facts.
All data collated from previous ten PL seasons:
Average Minimum Points for Survival
34.9 - We need to find at least another 20 points from somewhere, in order to avoid relegation, on average.
Our current points per game value is 0.75. With 18 games remaining, we will need to collect an average of at least 1.12 points per game until the end of the season to achieve this.
Average Minimum Wins for Survival
9.0 - We need at least another 6 wins from somewhere in order to avoid relegation, on average.
Being sat on 3 wins beyond the halfway stage, we will need to at least double our current win rate to achieve this.
Average Maximum Losses for Survival
18.4 - We can only afford at most to lose another 8 matches in order to avoid relegation, on average.
With only 18 games to go, we need to pick up some sort of result in at least 10 of the remaining games to achieve this.
Average Minimum Goals for Survival
39.1 - We need to find at least another 25 goals from somewhere in order to avoid relegation, on average.
Currently we have 15 goals from 20 games, giving 0.75 goals per game. With 18 games remaining we will need to score an average of 1.38 goals per game minimum to achieve this (almost double our current goal rate)
Top Scoring Player Average Minimum Goals for Survival
10.6 - Of all the teams that finished 17th over the previous 10 Pl seasons, they had a top scorer that scored 10.6 league goals on average.
We are all at least vaguely familiar with the concept of a "never say die" man to single handedly drag a team over the line with goals: Leonardo Ulloah -Leicester 14/15, Carlos Tevez - West Ham 06/07, Super Kev - Everton 98/99.
Our current joint top scorers are Anthony Gordon and Demari Gray with no less than 3 goals each to term. One of them will need to more than double his strike rate in the second half of the season, for us to achieve this, which works out at 0.44 goals per game, which is more than Marcus Rashford's current season strike rate.
If a new signing is to be the man to carry us through with goals, we will need him to net 0.61 goals per game to achieve this, or roughly the same as Harry Kane's current return
15 or Less Points after 20 Matches and Survived
This has been achieved by at total of 7 teams on 6 occasions over the previous 10 PL seasons:
Newcastle 21-22
Burnley 18-19
Swansea 16-17
Sunderland 15-16
Leicester 14-15
West Ham/Sunderland 13-14
So there is some evidence supporting optimism, whereby most of the previous 10 PL seasons have ended with at least one team escaping relegation from our current points return.
15 or Less Points after 22 Matches and Survived
This is where things become drastically less optimistic, given our next fixtures are Arsenal at home and RS away...
Not a single one of the previous 10 PL seasons have ended with teams escaping relegation with 15 points from 22 matches played.
Without further analysis, it's hard to say if this statistic says more about the criticality of the next two very hard matches, or the wastefulness of the previous months results. Either way it's terrifying.
I have no bias for doom and gloom, nor blind optimism, just stating the facts.
All data collated from previous ten PL seasons:
Average Minimum Points for Survival
34.9 - We need to find at least another 20 points from somewhere, in order to avoid relegation, on average.
Our current points per game value is 0.75. With 18 games remaining, we will need to collect an average of at least 1.12 points per game until the end of the season to achieve this.
Average Minimum Wins for Survival
9.0 - We need at least another 6 wins from somewhere in order to avoid relegation, on average.
Being sat on 3 wins beyond the halfway stage, we will need to at least double our current win rate to achieve this.
Average Maximum Losses for Survival
18.4 - We can only afford at most to lose another 8 matches in order to avoid relegation, on average.
With only 18 games to go, we need to pick up some sort of result in at least 10 of the remaining games to achieve this.
Average Minimum Goals for Survival
39.1 - We need to find at least another 25 goals from somewhere in order to avoid relegation, on average.
Currently we have 15 goals from 20 games, giving 0.75 goals per game. With 18 games remaining we will need to score an average of 1.38 goals per game minimum to achieve this (almost double our current goal rate)
Top Scoring Player Average Minimum Goals for Survival
10.6 - Of all the teams that finished 17th over the previous 10 Pl seasons, they had a top scorer that scored 10.6 league goals on average.
We are all at least vaguely familiar with the concept of a "never say die" man to single handedly drag a team over the line with goals: Leonardo Ulloah -Leicester 14/15, Carlos Tevez - West Ham 06/07, Super Kev - Everton 98/99.
Our current joint top scorers are Anthony Gordon and Demari Gray with no less than 3 goals each to term. One of them will need to more than double his strike rate in the second half of the season, for us to achieve this, which works out at 0.44 goals per game, which is more than Marcus Rashford's current season strike rate.
If a new signing is to be the man to carry us through with goals, we will need him to net 0.61 goals per game to achieve this, or roughly the same as Harry Kane's current return
15 or Less Points after 20 Matches and Survived
This has been achieved by at total of 7 teams on 6 occasions over the previous 10 PL seasons:
Newcastle 21-22
Burnley 18-19
Swansea 16-17
Sunderland 15-16
Leicester 14-15
West Ham/Sunderland 13-14
So there is some evidence supporting optimism, whereby most of the previous 10 PL seasons have ended with at least one team escaping relegation from our current points return.
15 or Less Points after 22 Matches and Survived
This is where things become drastically less optimistic, given our next fixtures are Arsenal at home and RS away...
Not a single one of the previous 10 PL seasons have ended with teams escaping relegation with 15 points from 22 matches played.
Without further analysis, it's hard to say if this statistic says more about the criticality of the next two very hard matches, or the wastefulness of the previous months results. Either way it's terrifying.
