The remaining 14 Games

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I won't do Liverpool anymore because they overachieved and are out of sight

Arsenal got 1 points from 3 pointer
We got 3 points from 1.5 pointer
United got 0 points from 1 pointer

Projection:
Arsenal 78 points
Everton 72 points
Spurs 70 points
United 67 points

Next round Games:
Fulham V/S Everton = 2 pointer
Arsenal V/S Man City = 1 pointer
Man Utd V/S Aston Villa = 3 pointer
Liverpool V/S Spurs = 1 pointer
 
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United
---------
Fulham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Palace (A)
WBA (A)
Liverpool (H)
West Ham (A)
City (H)
----------------------------
Villa (H)
Newcastle (A)
Hull (H)
Everton (A)
Norwich (H)
Sunderland (H)
Southampton (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 pointers (must win games) = 15 Points
Fulham (H) = 1 point
Villa (H)
Hull (H)
Norwich (H)
Sunderland (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 pointers (Should win) = 8 points
Palace (A) = 3 points
West Ham (A) = 3 points
WBA (A) = 3 points
Liverpool (H) = 0 points
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 pointers (50-50 games) = 3 points
Newcastle (A)
Southampton (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 pointers (should at least get a point games) = 3 points
Arsenal (A) = 1 point
City (H) = 0 points
Everton (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 points (Bonus games) = 0 point
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now I’ve been very generous to United, they are currently averaging 1.6 ppg, while I gave them 2 ppg, still the outcome is 69 points, 2 points behind us.

In other words, if we continue the same form without improving while United improve to 2 points per game, we will still finish ahead of them

Update: United got 11 points out of the predicted 13 points, currently averaging 1.64 point per game which will give them 62 points over 38 games, with my projection, they lost 2 points and will finish the season with 67 points, if they win all their remaining games they will get 72 points, same amount of points we are predicted to finish with, so all in all, they won't catch us, 2-3 of rounds and most probably it will be all over for them (to catch us)
 
Spurs
-------
Everton (H)
Newcastle (A)
Norwich (A)
Cardiff (H)
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)
Southampton (H)
-------------------
Liverpool (A)
Sunderland (H)
WBA (A)
Fulham (H)
Stoke (A)
West Ham (A)
Villa (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 pointers (must win games) = 12 Points
Cardiff (H) = 3 points
Sunderland (H)
Fulham (H)
Villa (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 pointers (Should win) = 4 points
Norwich (A) = 0 points
Southampton (H) = 3 points
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 pointers (50-50 games) = 6 points
Everton (H) = 3 points
Arsenal (H) = 0 points
WBA (A)
West Ham (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 pointers (should at least get a point games) = 3 points
Liverpool (A)
Newcastle (A) = 3 points
Stoke (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 points (Bonus games) = 0 point
Chelsea (A) = 0 points
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Spurs have very tough away games, in fact apart from Norwich away, they have 6 away games where they will not be favorites in any of those games, they also host us and Arsenal, I still gave them 1.78 ppg, they are currently averaging 1.83 ppg, I personally expect them to average less than 1.78 ppg, but even if they do, they will end up with 69 points, again 2 points behind us.

Update: Spurs got 12 points out of the predicted 11 points, currently averaging 1.8 point per game which will give them 68 points over 38 games, with my projection, they will finish with 70 points, they are very much in the race with us, have 3 winnable home games but their 4 away fixtures are tough and that's where they will fall short (hopefully)
 
Arsenal
----------------------
Sunderland (H)
Stoke (A)
Swansea (H)
Spurs (A)
Chelsea (A)
------------------------
City (H)
Everton (A)
West Ham (H)
Hull (A)
Newcastle (H)
WBA (H)
Norwich (A)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 pointers (must win games) = 15 Points
Sunderland (H) = 3 points
Swansea (H) = 1 point
West Ham (H)
Newcastle (H)
WBA (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 pointers (Should win) = 4 points
Hull (A)
Norwich (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 pointers (50-50 games) = points
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 pointers (should at least get a point games) = 4 points
Stoke (A) = 0 points
Spurs (A) = 3 points
City (H)
Everton (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 points (Bonus games) = 0 point
Chelsea (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total 79 points, what will guaranty them Top 4 is the 5 home games against Sunderland, Swansea, West Ham, Newcastle and WBA

Update: Arsenal got 6 points from the projected 8 points, currently averaging 2.03 points per game which will give them 77 points over 38 games, with my projection, they will finish with 78 points. for us to be able to catch them, they should lose or draw at best with city, we must beat them (+2 points for us and -1 points for them) they must also drop points away to Norwich and Hull and hopefully not get the full 9 points home against West Ham, Newcastle and WBA

Can we catch them? Yes, by overachieving (lets start with 3 points at Fulham) and they underachieving, unlikely but possible, next 2 rounds (results for both of us) is crucial
 
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Wow, must admit, was sceptical of your whole points prediction thing at the start, but they are close predictions! Also, seems to illustrate accurately my summation of our chances of 4th/5th/6th. Should finish 5th, good form = 4th, bad form = 6th. @Jay
 
Ihaters said:
Its ace work, but even I could've predicted you'd be wrong thinking we'd get 11.5 points.
Click to expand...

The 1.5 points are the 50-50 games, i had 2 games as 50-50 and a total of 3 points from those 2 games, Newcastle and Southampton away, we played one and won it, so the 3 points are in the bag, if we lose at Southampton, nothing will change, we will (based on my projection) finish with 72 points, if we get a point, it will be 2X1.5=3+1 which means 73 points, if we win, it means 75 points.

My projections won't be 100% correct but so far i can say after 6 rounds, we got 12 points out of my predicted 11.5, United 11 from 13, Spurs 12 from 11 and Arsenal 6 from 8 (i started Arsenal after 2 rounds from the rest)
 
Arsenal got 1 points from 1 pointer
We got 3 points from 2 pointer
United got 3 points from 3 pointer
Spurs got 0 points from 1 pointer

Projection:
Arsenal 78 points
Everton 73 points
Spurs 69 points
United 67 points

Next round Games:
Everton V/S Arsenal = 1 pointer for us
Everton V/S Arsenal = 1 pointer for Arsenal
Newcastle V/S Man Utd = 1.5 pointer
Spurs V/S Sunderland = 3 pointer
 

Quick update

Arsenal
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 pointers (must win games) = 15 Points
Sunderland (H) = 3 points
Swansea (H) = 1 point
West Ham (H)
Newcastle (H)
WBA (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 pointers (Should win) = 4 points
Hull (A)
Norwich (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 pointers (should at least get a point games) = 4 points
Stoke (A) = 0 points
Spurs (A) = 3 points
City (H) = 1 points
Everton (A) = 0 points
As expected got 4 points
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 points (Bonus games) = 0 point
Chelsea (A) = 0 points
As expected got 0 points
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total 79 points, what will guaranty them Top 4 is the 5 home games against Sunderland, Swansea, West Ham, Newcastle and WBA.
Click to expand...

After 7 games, Arsenal are 2 points short of the projection (lost 2 points against Swansea at home), the rest of the results combined together gave them exactly the same amount of points I projected.

Mathematically speaking, if they win their last 5 games, they will end up with 79 points.

According to my projection, they should win 4 out of 5 and draw one of Hull or Norwich away and finish with 77 points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 pointers (must win games) = 12 points
West Ham (H) = 3 points
Cardiff (H) = 3 points
Swansea (H) = 3 points
Palace (H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 pointers (Should win) = 8 points
Fulham (A) = 3 points
Sunderland (A)
United (H)
Hull (A)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 pointers (50-50 games) = 3 points
Newcastle (A) = 3 points
Southampton (A)
Goal achived with Southampton as a bonus now ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 pointers (should at least get a point games) = 3 points
Spurs (A) = 0 points
Arsenal (H) = 3 points
City (H)
Goal achived with City as a bonus now
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 points (Bonus games) = 0 point
Chelsea (A) = 0 points
As expected got 0 points
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total 26 points, with 1.85 point per game which will give us 71 points, our current point per game average is 1.875
Click to expand...

Explaining our situation is more complicated, we got 3.5 points more than what I projected which will give us 74-75 points.

We simply have to continue “overachieving” in order to finish 4th (unless Arsenal continue their freefall)
 
77pts for Arsenal a good prediction; 4 wins and 1 draw. Probably about right.
64pts now + 12pts + 1pt = 77

We've therefore got to get 5 wins and 1 draw from our 6 games to overtake. Tha would leave us on
63pts now + 15pts + 1pt = 79pts. We would probably afford 4 wins + 2 draws (77pts, which would leave us level, goal difference would probably be in our favour).

Sunderland (A) - Win
Palace (H) - Win
Man U (H) - Win
Southampton (A) - Draw
Man City (H) - Draw
Hull (A) - Win

Very, very tall order. But not beyond the realms of possibility
 

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