Jay
Player Valuation: £8m
The storm of 3 games in a week has passed, as expected City, Chelsea and Arsenal pulled away at the top and created a small gap (4 points) off the 4th, they all got 9 points!
Liverpool got 3 points
We got 4 points
United 6 points
Spurs 6 points
Newcastle 3 points
True that United and Spurs got 6 points each but both are still yo-yo-ing, as it is, the race to 4th is between us and Liverpool.
Liverpool at 4th are averaging 1.95 points per game which means 74 points after 38 games
We are 5th with 38 points which means 1.9 point per game and 72 points after 38 games
In other words, 71 points might not be good enough as it is, while 2 points per game will give you 76 points and all but guarantees you 4th place.
So we should aim for the 2 points per game knowing that we might get 4th place with less.
We still have 9 home games to play and 9 away games
H Norwich City
H Aston Villa
H Crystal Palace
H West Ham United
H Cardiff City
H Swansea City
H Arsenal
H Man Utd
H Man City
--------------------
A West Brom
A Liverpool
A Spurs
A Chelsea
A Newcastle United
A Fulham
A Sunderland
A Southampton
A Hull City
--------------------
Our 6 next home games should all mean 3 points which means 18 points without Arsenal, United and City, so most probably we will drop few points from the first 6 games but get few points from the last 3 games in return, so i am gonna stick with the 18 points (which is 2 points per game, we got 21 points so far this season out of the 10 home games we played, which means 2.1 point per game and 19 points for 9 games) this will give us 38 current points + 18 = 56 points
Moving to the away games, we got 17 points on the road out of the 10 games we played so far (average 1.7 point per game), we have 6 visits to the current top 10 teams which is the bad news, the good news is that we got 18 points (2 points per game) out of the 9 games we played against the current top 10.
WBA is a must win game
Then 4 visits to Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea and Newcastle in a row, all are bonus games
By the time we play Fulham and Sunderland away, they should be fighting for their lives (fulham game 32 and Sunderland game 34, i doubt they will be safe or relegated already)
Our last 2 away games against Southampton and Hull, both should be safe and have nothing to play for
So we need at least 18 points from our away games which is where i think we will come short, so this put the pressure back on the home games, we must win our first 6 home games and get some points from the last 3 home games too
Anyway, the remaining 18 fixtures and my predictions:
H Norwich City - 3
A West Brom - 3
A Liverpool - 0
H Aston Villa - 3
A Spurs - 1
H Crystal Palace - 3
A Chelsea - 0
H West Ham United - 3
A Newcastle United - 1
H Cardiff City - 3
H Swansea City - 3
A Fulham - 1
H Arsenal - 1
A Sunderland - 3
H Man Utd - 1
A Southampton - 1
H Man City - 0
A Hull City - 3
Total = 71 points
Liverpool got 3 points
We got 4 points
United 6 points
Spurs 6 points
Newcastle 3 points
True that United and Spurs got 6 points each but both are still yo-yo-ing, as it is, the race to 4th is between us and Liverpool.
Liverpool at 4th are averaging 1.95 points per game which means 74 points after 38 games
We are 5th with 38 points which means 1.9 point per game and 72 points after 38 games
In other words, 71 points might not be good enough as it is, while 2 points per game will give you 76 points and all but guarantees you 4th place.
So we should aim for the 2 points per game knowing that we might get 4th place with less.
We still have 9 home games to play and 9 away games
H Norwich City
H Aston Villa
H Crystal Palace
H West Ham United
H Cardiff City
H Swansea City
H Arsenal
H Man Utd
H Man City
--------------------
A West Brom
A Liverpool
A Spurs
A Chelsea
A Newcastle United
A Fulham
A Sunderland
A Southampton
A Hull City
--------------------
Our 6 next home games should all mean 3 points which means 18 points without Arsenal, United and City, so most probably we will drop few points from the first 6 games but get few points from the last 3 games in return, so i am gonna stick with the 18 points (which is 2 points per game, we got 21 points so far this season out of the 10 home games we played, which means 2.1 point per game and 19 points for 9 games) this will give us 38 current points + 18 = 56 points
Moving to the away games, we got 17 points on the road out of the 10 games we played so far (average 1.7 point per game), we have 6 visits to the current top 10 teams which is the bad news, the good news is that we got 18 points (2 points per game) out of the 9 games we played against the current top 10.
WBA is a must win game
Then 4 visits to Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea and Newcastle in a row, all are bonus games
By the time we play Fulham and Sunderland away, they should be fighting for their lives (fulham game 32 and Sunderland game 34, i doubt they will be safe or relegated already)
Our last 2 away games against Southampton and Hull, both should be safe and have nothing to play for
So we need at least 18 points from our away games which is where i think we will come short, so this put the pressure back on the home games, we must win our first 6 home games and get some points from the last 3 home games too
Anyway, the remaining 18 fixtures and my predictions:
H Norwich City - 3
A West Brom - 3
A Liverpool - 0
H Aston Villa - 3
A Spurs - 1
H Crystal Palace - 3
A Chelsea - 0
H West Ham United - 3
A Newcastle United - 1
H Cardiff City - 3
H Swansea City - 3
A Fulham - 1
H Arsenal - 1
A Sunderland - 3
H Man Utd - 1
A Southampton - 1
H Man City - 0
A Hull City - 3
Total = 71 points
