The experience conundrum

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Kever10

Player Valuation: £15m
Would anyone care to give us an explanation on this arbitrary amount of experience and expertise that's needed to be a top manager? So far, it seems a manager needs to test himself at a lower level 1st, to prove he can do it, but also must have experience at a top team to show he's at the right level for what we need?

Essentially, what we need is a young coach, with decades of experience, who has a dogmatic philosophy on how football should be played, but is flexible in his approach, and must also have experience in the lower leagues of English football, as well as success with the top sides in Europe.

Excellent. That should certainly narrow down the options.

We have tried experience. 2 of our last 3 managers are literally 2 of the the longest serving managers still in the game, at polar opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of size of clubs managed and success.
We have tried young hungry managers looking to build something with fresh ideas.
We have tried big names.
We have tried people with philosophies.
We have tried adaptable and pragmatic.
We have tried working on low budgets.
We have tried spending lots of money.
And even within that, we have tried ready made Premier league proven players, players with potential, stars from gigantic European sides, players with world class pedigree.

None of that has worked.

So why is it so wrong to maybe try a different approach? Appointing someone from within, someone who already knows the club inside out from the chairman to the cleaners. Someone who is not just well respected, but loved by virtually everyone who meets him. Someone who has a passion to do the job and is motivated to prove himself for the right reasons, and not just another big name who is going to go through the motions and sit on his big contract, knowing full well that failure will only see him walk away with millions anyway, and if history is anything to go by, probably straight into the job of his dreams.

The more I think about it, the more Duncan Ferguson makes sense to me. We have always been a very peculiar club. Very insular and contrary to the normal workings of other teams and businesses. We do things our way, and we always have, sometimes with great success, and mostly not. The only significant fact that has to be brought up, is that we have NEVER won anything with a manager who did not have a prior connection. And the last time we had a manager with a prior connection, was Howard Kendall, 23 years ago, which just happens to coincide with the longest run without a trophy in the clubs existence.

People talk about experience like its something everyone has to have, which is just not the case and there are a constant stream of examples in football that prove otherwise. And even if you doubt that he knows the game inside out, he wouldn't be on his own. He would obviously appoint coaches and assistants with experience to help him.

The dismissive way people talk about his skills and knowledge are frankly disrespectful and unfounded. He earned his badges just like any other coach, and he has worked his way up from working with the young sides to becoming caretaker and assistant manager with the 1st team. Is he perhaps a little fortunate that he got his start at a top club? Sure, maybe. But he got that chance because of his character, his work ethic and his connection to club. And that is the case for the majority of managers in the game.

He has been in this game for most of his adult life, and spent the majority of it, both playing and coaching, with us. He was part of the last side to win anything, and he's been through it all with us, the highs and the lows.

What's more, Ferguson already knows everyone at the club. He has a massive headstart on any outsider we could hope to appoint, who would likely take months to settle in and another year to assess everything and acclimatise. Duncan already knows every player at the club, including the youth prospects. He knows the strengths and weaknesses, what we have and what we need. And if Brands is capable of doing what he was brought here to do, then they could and should reshape this team together and manage the rebuild we've badly needed since Moyes last season.

I have no qualms that he would be strong enough to make tough decisions, and I have no doubts that his teams would be committed. I think he might even surprise a few people with the tactical side of his game as well.

If we appointed him tomorrow, I honestly believe in his eagerness to show how seriously he takes the responsibility, that he would start work straight away, planning and organising and getting things ready. Unlike Ronald Koeman who took 2 holidays and left us hanging for weeks before finally swanning in and starting his scattergun approach to transfers. That was the 1st red flag right there.

David Moyes was 38 when he took over at Everton. He had been a player manager at Preston for 2 years, and he got the role because that's where he ended his career. Howard Kendall was even younger. He was 35 and again, had only been player manager at Blackburn for 2 years before coming home. Duncan is 49 and has almost a decade of coaching experience at various levels. He knows what is required.

At the end of the day, the only true experience that matters in this game, and especially at Everton, is the experience you get from being there and doing it. And until it happens, none of us will ever know. Whether that someone is just starting out, or if they have managed a who's who of Europe's top clubs for 2 decades, winning trophies wherever they go. Until they get here and do it, there is literally no guarantee of success.

Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. Mine says give it to Big Dunc. It's the perfect time and we genuinely have nothing to lose.
 
Great post (by the looks of things)

Can anyone offer a 50 word executive summary?
Experience is arbitrary, over valued.
We have tried various levels from one extreme to the other and had no success.
Duncan knows the club inside out and will start straight away.
Sometimes you have to trust your gut. Mine tells me give it to dunc.
Fifty words, just for you.
 

When you’re in a scenario where we’re seemingly rock bottom, you need a head who knows what’s they’re doing and can build something positive and productive.

When you’re someone like Chelsea, you can take a gamble, and then pull it, if it goes wrong. They can throw money ah it, and solve the problem.

We’re not fortunate enough to be in that positive, so to throw to a novice, untested manager just has far too much risk to start a season.

If we were (totally hypothetical), mid table, completely safe, but had a disappointing season, this can be a reason to try an untested manager.

But other than that, at least make sure they’re experienced.
 
Experience is arbitrary, over valued.
We have tried various levels from one extreme to the other and had no success.
Duncan knows the club inside out and will start straight away.
Sometimes you have to trust your gut. Mine tells me give it to dunc.
Fifty words, just for you.

Thank you.

You make some valid points.

My only issue with Duncan is if he were serious about management he'd have tried it already. (properly tried it)

Let's see.
 
Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. Mine says give it to Big Dunc. It's the perfect time and we genuinely have nothing to lose.
A lot the facts stated here are perfectly valid and lots of the reasoning sound. The trouble is that one of life's harsh lessons is that things are never so bad that they can't get worse, so thinking we have nothing to lose is a dangerous base from which to make important decisions. Maybe a gut feel has as much chance of success as the shambolic appointments of the past, but some of the pro Ferguson argument smacks of desperation, and there's a quote somewhere that says desperation is closely adjacent to despair.

Just going with sentiment and gut feeling might have a surface 'do or die' appeal, but might well leave us in a bigger mess, with an even deeper hole to climb out of.
 
I think I’d prefer a new young relatively unknown manager.

Someone with fresh ideas, that can work with Brands (seems as we’re stuck with him), to build a new squad.

No manager in the world is coming in and getting this current crop of players to preform well, so we might as well let a new lad come in and give it a go.
 
The Everton job is one of the biggest in world football. We have the most years in the top division of the biggest footballing country in the world and spend fortunes on players and wages. Whatever metric, outside of recent success, it’s a huge job.

In what industry would you ever give a top job to somebody who’s never even done a small variation of that job before except filling in for a few weeks once?

I’d love Dunc to go manage a smaller club and show his worth but the risk in us appointing him is enormous. What players will be excited and want to join with Ferguson in charge? Nobody knows what he’d bring and this window where we need to make massive moves would be a disaster.

Also, him knowing the club is really not a good thing. We haven’t won a trophy since the year he joined, I’d rather have someone who knows how to win!
 

I'm still drawn to an English/British manager with PL experience, primarily because I don't trust this squad of players, and could easily see them going 10 games without a win, and losing most of those.

Not to say that a foreign manager couldn't come in and revitalise us, but it just makes me more nervous if they haven't experienced the league here. It's just with this squad. They need tracksuit management, and someone who can have some feel for what it's been like as a fan here for the last 30 years. But they still have to be better than good enough, and have potential. You don't give it to Eddie Howe because he's an Everton fan and has managed in the PL.

Still think someone who seemed hungry like Moyes in his first few seasons here would be great. He set the ground running.
 
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Clubs like Barcelona promote from within. In theory we should do the same in that we prime a candidate years in advance to step up from the U-23's, to being assistant to then being the manager. Only problem with this is finding the right candidate to wait around for a couple of years for the head man to get booted out!
Dunc has had a few years seeing how various managers work, and I can only hope he's picked up a bit of knowledge from Carlo. And we know that he's not afraid to make hard decisions (Kean substitution). I'd say that it would be a safe appointment, perhaps an appointment knowing that from now until next spring, we'll be sounding out a long term manager who has spent a season watching us and knowing how to make improvements next summer.
 
Clubs like Barcelona promote from within. In theory we should do the same in that we prime a candidate years in advance to step up from the U-23's, to being assistant to then being the manager. Only problem with this is finding the right candidate to wait around for a couple of years for the head man to get booted out!
Dunc has had a few years seeing how various managers work, and I can only hope he's picked up a bit of knowledge from Carlo. And we know that he's not afraid to make hard decisions (Kean substitution). I'd say that it would be a safe appointment, perhaps an appointment knowing that from now until next spring, we'll be sounding out a long term manager who has spent a season watching us and knowing how to make improvements next summer.
But Barcelona play 'The Barcelona Way'

Every player, every coach in the academy are groomed towards that one goal....... To be Barcelona.

Our past 5 managers have been all over the place, Unsworth with the U29s was also doing his own thing.

In theory, to DoF model works. The caveat being they must have total authority to dictate the direction of the entire football side of the club.
 

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