BoysInBlue
Player Valuation: £50m
After 22 games in season 1993/94 - W7 D4 L11 F20 A28 PTS 25 GD -8
After 22 games in season 1997/98 - W6 D5 L11 F23 A32 PTS 23 GD -9
After 22 games in season 2014/15 - W5 D8 L9 F30 A34 PTS 23 GD -4
Lets make no bones about it, we are in a relegation battle. Yeah, there'll be some people who will say (possibly with good reason, given last season) that we're 'too good to go down' and all that, but if you look at history, especially the stats above, the evidence is frightening. In the two worst seasons since we were promoted back to the top flight in 1954, at this same stage of the season, we had more points, and had conceded less goals, than we do right now. It's a very worrying time.
So really, this season is a write off as far as the league goes. We need to finish as high up the table as we can, but ultimately, the first target is 40 points. We need 17 points from our last 16 games, so 5 wins and 2 draws. Lets look at the fixtures realistically. Probable defeats in green, must wins in bold:
Jan 31 Palace A - Draw (1 point)
Feb 7 Liverpool H - Would love to say win, would take a draw now, but probable defeat. (0 points)
Feb 11 Chelsea A - Defeat. (0 points)
Feb 22 Leicester H - MUST WIN (3 points).
Mar 1 Arsenal A - Defeat. (0 points)
Mar 4 Stoke A - Draw (1 point)
Mar 14 Newcastle H - Hopefully a win, but possible draw. (1 point)
Mar 21 QPR A - NEED AT LEAST A DRAW. (1 point)
Apr 4 Southampton H - Probable defeat. (0 points)
Apr 11 Swansea A - Probable defeat. (0 points)
Apr 18 Burnley H - MUST WIN. (3 points)
Apr 25 Man Utd H - Probable defeat. (0 points)
May 2 Aston Villa A - MUST WIN (3 points)
May 9 Sunderland H - MUST WIN (3 points)
May 16 West Ham A - Draw (1 point)
May 24 Spurs H - Draw (1 point)
So that's 4 wins 6 draws 6 defeats, which would put us on 41 points.
That would be enough to keep us up in each of the last 11 seasons - you have to go back to 2002/03 when West Ham went down with 42 points.
Basically, this isn't rocket science. The home games will be crucial, especially against the teams in and around us. Villa away and QPR away are also very important too.
After 22 games in season 1997/98 - W6 D5 L11 F23 A32 PTS 23 GD -9
After 22 games in season 2014/15 - W5 D8 L9 F30 A34 PTS 23 GD -4
Lets make no bones about it, we are in a relegation battle. Yeah, there'll be some people who will say (possibly with good reason, given last season) that we're 'too good to go down' and all that, but if you look at history, especially the stats above, the evidence is frightening. In the two worst seasons since we were promoted back to the top flight in 1954, at this same stage of the season, we had more points, and had conceded less goals, than we do right now. It's a very worrying time.
So really, this season is a write off as far as the league goes. We need to finish as high up the table as we can, but ultimately, the first target is 40 points. We need 17 points from our last 16 games, so 5 wins and 2 draws. Lets look at the fixtures realistically. Probable defeats in green, must wins in bold:
Jan 31 Palace A - Draw (1 point)
Feb 7 Liverpool H - Would love to say win, would take a draw now, but probable defeat. (0 points)
Feb 11 Chelsea A - Defeat. (0 points)
Feb 22 Leicester H - MUST WIN (3 points).
Mar 1 Arsenal A - Defeat. (0 points)
Mar 4 Stoke A - Draw (1 point)
Mar 14 Newcastle H - Hopefully a win, but possible draw. (1 point)
Mar 21 QPR A - NEED AT LEAST A DRAW. (1 point)
Apr 4 Southampton H - Probable defeat. (0 points)
Apr 11 Swansea A - Probable defeat. (0 points)
Apr 18 Burnley H - MUST WIN. (3 points)
Apr 25 Man Utd H - Probable defeat. (0 points)
May 2 Aston Villa A - MUST WIN (3 points)
May 9 Sunderland H - MUST WIN (3 points)
May 16 West Ham A - Draw (1 point)
May 24 Spurs H - Draw (1 point)
So that's 4 wins 6 draws 6 defeats, which would put us on 41 points.
That would be enough to keep us up in each of the last 11 seasons - you have to go back to 2002/03 when West Ham went down with 42 points.
Basically, this isn't rocket science. The home games will be crucial, especially against the teams in and around us. Villa away and QPR away are also very important too.
