Relegation

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Referees certainly trying to Relegate us...

Fouls committed by Everton per yellow card
17-18 8.67
18-19 7.73 (-11%)
19-20 6.43 (-17%)
20-21 6.15 (-5%)
21-22 4.40 (a staggering 29% less than last season) half as many fouls per YC compared with 4 years previously.

In other words an Everton foul is twice as likely to incur a Yellow Card compared with 4 seasons ago.

Everton are 15th in the Fouls per game table in the current season yet have the lowest number of fouls per YC - a ludicrous 4.40 per Yellow - this directly contradicts the correlation between low fouls and low number of yellow cards (the other 6 least fouling teams have the 6 lowest ratio per YC, indicative that the least fouling teams get the benefit from refs - excepting Everton, to no one's surprise)
That's pretty damning from a refereeing perspective.

The real headline is statistically we are playing cleaner football and copping more yellows.

Also factoring in that they are handing out yellow cards when are a fouled too, attributing half of the leagues yellows for diving to Everton players.

 
But we wouldn't be there mathematically, that's what i'm saying. If we get 41 and the other two win their 3 remaining games then we'll go down because they'll have 43 so we'd still in essence be relying on others. Either we 'need' 44 to be mathematically safe, or we go off a gut feeling of what will be enough. For me I think one more win will probably do it but yeah i'd much rather we don't do that!

You are correct of course, but on a probability basis, the chance of Leeds getting 8 points, Burnley getting 7/8 points and Southampton getting 2 points (when one of their final 2 is against Liverpool) seems miniscule.

I'm not looking beyond Wednesday. Lots of things can potentially happen. If we win Wednesday night, I think we could have the opportunity to be safe by the time we play Brentford.
 
After seeing Ivan Toneys tweet showing cooper and Dallas from Leeds singing about Thomas Frank after winning the championship in 2020 I’m convinced now that Leeds best chance of points will be against Chelsea. Brighton are playing brilliantly under no pressure and Brentford would love to be the team that sends them down. Chelsea may just have one eye on the cup final and with everything else going on there it could be Leeds best opportunity
 
Talking to a Leeds supporting mate last night he mentioned something that I hadn't realised- there's a bit of history between this Brentford side and Leeds, and they really don't like eachother. He was saying Brentford would absolutely love to send them down on the last day, so there's no way they'll have their flip flops on for that game.

Also Brentford, after a first season in the top flight, are not going to want to sign off in their final home game with a loss.
 

You are correct of course, but on a probability basis, the chance of Leeds getting 8 points, Burnley getting 7/8 points and Southampton getting 2 points (when one of their final 2 is against Liverpool) seems miniscule.

I'm not looking beyond Wednesday. Lots of things can potentially happen. If we win Wednesday night, I think we could have the opportunity to be safe by the time we play Brentford.
I was more just commenting on picking an arbitrary number of points and saying that's what we 'need'. I think at this point it's really difficult to make predictions because things can swing dramatically game by game. A few weeks ago i'd have been pretty certain that 35 would keep you up but obviously that's no longer the case. Nobody would really have expected us and Burnley to have picked up 10 points each since we played them a month ago but here we are.

If we win tomorrow and Leeds lose then i'll be very confident of staying up, if the reverse happens then i'll be very nervous. As I said, I'd like to think 1 more win would be enough but when there's only this many games left I don't think you can ever completely discount someone pulling a couple of results out of the bag.
 
I was more just commenting on picking an arbitrary number of points and saying that's what we 'need'. I think at this point it's really difficult to make predictions because things can swing dramatically game by game. A few weeks ago i'd have been pretty certain that 35 would keep you up but obviously that's no longer the case. Nobody would really have expected us and Burnley to have picked up 10 points each since we played them a month ago but here we are.

If we win tomorrow and Leeds lose then i'll be very confident of staying up, if the reverse happens then i'll be very nervous. As I said, I'd like to think 1 more win would be enough but when there's only this many games left I don't think you can ever completely discount someone pulling a couple of results out of the bag.
This, and it's why rather than look at specific points, for the last few weeks I've been focusing on wins more than anything. Obviously I know that attributes to points but I'm still just treating it as such.

We've won 2 of our last 4 games and if we repeat that from the next four I think we're safe. But I think we all want to get to that point ahead of the last game of the season so it could become 2 from 3. That's to keep it in our hands, not rely on other teams to do us a favour.

If things align perfectly tomorrow, which I don't think they will but if they do then yes, it may well be that we have dragged ourselves four points clear and the pressure is all on Leeds. But we simply cannot predict anything yet.

Just keep doing our job and as much as everybody in the fanbase is buzzing right now I'm wary of another twist and crash down to earth.

People are treating Spurs beating Burnley as a banker but Spurs will have nothing to play for if they lose against Arsenal for example - their CL hopes will be pretty much over.

Still far too much to take into consideration so, for me, we still need two wins before going into that Arsenal game to have fully done our job and not to have to rely on other teams. I could care less what we're on as long as, come that final day, we are 3 points ahead of Leeds because that would likely have to mean a 15-20 goal swing in goal difference for them to finish above us.
 

This, and it's why rather than look at specific points, for the last few weeks I've been focusing on wins more than anything. Obviously I know that attributes to points but I'm still just treating it as such.

We've won 2 of our last 4 games and if we repeat that from the next four I think we're safe. But I think we all want to get to that point ahead of the last game of the season so it could become 2 from 3. That's to keep it in our hands, not rely on other teams to do us a favour.

If things align perfectly tomorrow, which I don't think they will but if they do then yes, it may well be that we have dragged ourselves four points clear and the pressure is all on Leeds. But we simply cannot predict anything yet.

Just keep doing our job and as much as everybody in the fanbase is buzzing right now I'm wary of another twist and crash down to earth.

People are treating Spurs beating Burnley as a banker but Spurs will have nothing to play for if they lose against Arsenal for example - their CL hopes will be pretty much over.

Still far too much to take into consideration so, for me, we still need two wins before going into that Arsenal game to have fully done our job and not to have to rely on other teams. I could care less what we're on as long as, come that final day, we are 3 points ahead of Leeds because that would likely have to mean a 15-20 goal swing in goal difference for them to finish above us.
Yeah the short turnaround for Spurs after what is likely to be a very tough game is a concern aswell.
 
After seeing Ivan Toneys tweet showing cooper and Dallas from Leeds singing about Thomas Frank after winning the championship in 2020 I’m convinced now that Leeds best chance of points will be against Chelsea. Brighton are playing brilliantly under no pressure and Brentford would love to be the team that sends them down. Chelsea may just have one eye on the cup final and with everything else going on there it could be Leeds best opportunity


CL qualification is the new cup final. Hopefully.
 

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