MrGrumpy
Player Valuation: £50m
#JusticeforMatty
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Charles Hawtrey
Player Valuation: £50m
Interesting summary here - noting that our recent results has been built on defensive ssuccess.
Burnley, Everton and Leeds are all battling for survival in the Premier League. Jake Osgathorpe has all you need to know for the relegation fight, including a data dive into all three sides.
On average, over the past 10 seasons, 35 points has been enough to retain your spot in England's top-flight, with no side going higher than that across the past five campaigns.
It looks like more will be needed this season as Everton reached that mark with a rare away win at Leicester and moved past it by drawing at Watford, though they missed a golden opportunity to secure safety when 2-1 up on Brentford at the weekend only to lose 3-2.
Leeds moved out of the relegation zone after a last-gasp equaliser against Brighton, being replaced by Burnley who were beaten 1-0 by Tottenham.
The Clarets have a game in hand on Leeds, meaning the fight to avoid the drop will go all the way to the final game of the season. Jake Osgathorpe assesses the three teams fighting to avoid joining Norwich and Watford in the Championship.
17. Leeds | Played: 37 | Points: 35 | Goal Difference: -38
18. Burnley | Played: 36 | Points: 34 | Goal Difference: -18
Jesse Marsch hasn't done anything wrong since his appointment, despite Leeds finding themselves in the current predicament.
The Whites have picked up 12 points from a possible 33, but have played three of the top five in that time, and even if we include those games their underlying process has been at a level we have come to expect from Leeds over the last few years (1.51 xGF, 1.59 xGA per game).
Exclude those three games, and against 'the rest' under Marsch they have averaged 1.78 xGF and 1.36 xGA per game - that process is very good, and if that level is hit on Sunday, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them beat Brentford.
All in all, the Whites have performed like a mid-table team under their American coach. He couldn't have really done much more.
The Infogol model gives the Whites a 23% chance of winning at Brentford on the final day, and a 44% chance of avoiding defeat, meaning more likely than not they will need Burnley to slip up drastically if they are to survive.
They were well-beaten by Tottenham at the weekend, generating just 0.64 xGF in a second successive defeat, and Mike Jackson's side need to get back to their creative ways for the final two games of the campaign.
In total, the Clarets have generated an average of 1.65 xGF per game since sacking Sean Dyche. Over the 30 games under Dyche they averaged 1.09 xGF per game, so we have seen an upturn due to a more attack-minded approach.
Only in games against West Ham (2.86 xGA) and Tottenham (2.34) - two of the top seven - have Burnley looked exposed defensively, allowing 1.22 xGA per game across their other four fixtures, so all the signs are there that they are a better side post-Dyche.
Villa away will be a tough test, with Steven Gerrard's side having recently beaten Burnley at Turf Moor, as will a hosting of a Newcastle side fresh from a 2-0 win over Arsenal, but, if Burnley continue doing what they have been doing against 'the rest', then they should pick up points.
One win is all that is required to guarantee safety, and a home game against Crystal Palace looks the most likely place that it will come, though Arsenal appeared mentally shot on Monday night against Newcastle.
The Toffees may fancy their chances at the Emirates, but their home form and process under Frank Lampard means there is more chance they get a result on Thursday against Palace.
A total of 13 of the 17 points they have collected under Lampard have come at Goodison Park, with their underlying process (1.19 xGF, 1.12 xGA per game) highlighting just how difficult they have been to beat on their own patch.
Since Lampard was appointed, Everton have actually got a better home xG process (+0.07 xGD per game) than his former employers Chelsea (+0.06), while their defensive process is bettered by only seven sides.
If they are to get a result against Palace on Thursday, which is absolutely possible if they continue to perform as they have done at Goodison, then it is likely to come in a low-scoring, ground out fashion.
But, despite a good run of form, the Toffees aren't out of the woods yet.
Burnley, Everton and Leeds are all battling for survival in the Premier League. Jake Osgathorpe has all you need to know for the relegation fight, including a data dive into all three sides.
On average, over the past 10 seasons, 35 points has been enough to retain your spot in England's top-flight, with no side going higher than that across the past five campaigns.
It looks like more will be needed this season as Everton reached that mark with a rare away win at Leicester and moved past it by drawing at Watford, though they missed a golden opportunity to secure safety when 2-1 up on Brentford at the weekend only to lose 3-2.
Leeds moved out of the relegation zone after a last-gasp equaliser against Brighton, being replaced by Burnley who were beaten 1-0 by Tottenham.
The Clarets have a game in hand on Leeds, meaning the fight to avoid the drop will go all the way to the final game of the season. Jake Osgathorpe assesses the three teams fighting to avoid joining Norwich and Watford in the Championship.
Current Premier League table
16. Everton | Played: 36 | Points: 36 | Goal Difference: -2017. Leeds | Played: 37 | Points: 35 | Goal Difference: -38
18. Burnley | Played: 36 | Points: 34 | Goal Difference: -18
Premier League relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- 8/11 - Leeds
- 6/4 - Burnley
- 15/2 - Everton
Will Leeds be relegated?
- Leeds remaining fixtures - Sunday, May 22: Brentford (A)
- Infogol % chance of relegation: 57.8%
Jesse Marsch hasn't done anything wrong since his appointment, despite Leeds finding themselves in the current predicament.
The Whites have picked up 12 points from a possible 33, but have played three of the top five in that time, and even if we include those games their underlying process has been at a level we have come to expect from Leeds over the last few years (1.51 xGF, 1.59 xGA per game).
Exclude those three games, and against 'the rest' under Marsch they have averaged 1.78 xGF and 1.36 xGA per game - that process is very good, and if that level is hit on Sunday, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them beat Brentford.
All in all, the Whites have performed like a mid-table team under their American coach. He couldn't have really done much more.
The Infogol model gives the Whites a 23% chance of winning at Brentford on the final day, and a 44% chance of avoiding defeat, meaning more likely than not they will need Burnley to slip up drastically if they are to survive.
How much have Burnley improved?
- Burnley remaining fixtures: Thursday, May 19: Aston Villa (A), Sunday, May 22: Newcastle (H)
- Infogol % chance of relegation: 35.6%
They were well-beaten by Tottenham at the weekend, generating just 0.64 xGF in a second successive defeat, and Mike Jackson's side need to get back to their creative ways for the final two games of the campaign.
In total, the Clarets have generated an average of 1.65 xGF per game since sacking Sean Dyche. Over the 30 games under Dyche they averaged 1.09 xGF per game, so we have seen an upturn due to a more attack-minded approach.
Only in games against West Ham (2.86 xGA) and Tottenham (2.34) - two of the top seven - have Burnley looked exposed defensively, allowing 1.22 xGA per game across their other four fixtures, so all the signs are there that they are a better side post-Dyche.
Villa away will be a tough test, with Steven Gerrard's side having recently beaten Burnley at Turf Moor, as will a hosting of a Newcastle side fresh from a 2-0 win over Arsenal, but, if Burnley continue doing what they have been doing against 'the rest', then they should pick up points.
Have Everton done enough to survive?
- Everton remaining fixtures: Thursday, May 19: Crystal Palace (H), Sunday, May 22: Arsenal (A)
- Infogol % chance relegation: 6.6%
One win is all that is required to guarantee safety, and a home game against Crystal Palace looks the most likely place that it will come, though Arsenal appeared mentally shot on Monday night against Newcastle.
The Toffees may fancy their chances at the Emirates, but their home form and process under Frank Lampard means there is more chance they get a result on Thursday against Palace.
A total of 13 of the 17 points they have collected under Lampard have come at Goodison Park, with their underlying process (1.19 xGF, 1.12 xGA per game) highlighting just how difficult they have been to beat on their own patch.
Since Lampard was appointed, Everton have actually got a better home xG process (+0.07 xGD per game) than his former employers Chelsea (+0.06), while their defensive process is bettered by only seven sides.
If they are to get a result against Palace on Thursday, which is absolutely possible if they continue to perform as they have done at Goodison, then it is likely to come in a low-scoring, ground out fashion.
But, despite a good run of form, the Toffees aren't out of the woods yet.
NathDogg
Player Valuation: £50m
I’ve taking a photo of me pop tonight, I will feel better with him near me and hopefully he brings us some luck!
he’d have hated seeing what this season has been like and prob would have jibbed it as soon as the fsw turned up tbh!
Up the toffees!
I know the fans will be up for it, hope the players are the same.
We have to stay with them if it’s not going our way.
he’d have hated seeing what this season has been like and prob would have jibbed it as soon as the fsw turned up tbh!
Up the toffees!
I know the fans will be up for it, hope the players are the same.
We have to stay with them if it’s not going our way.
MrGrumpy
Player Valuation: £50m
Have you seen any of the pre Chelsea Brentford games? If anything this has bought me back to the club. We never been United like this before. If I was t picking the wife up I’d go to Goodison for coach arrival
Seen loads of similar posts . . . which begs the question, If people are so 'not arsed' why do they bother to read and indeed post on an Everton forum?
Don't kid yourself. You are arsed, you're very arsed.
There is no magic switch to just turn off your support for the club even if you really wish you could.
Don't pretend that tonights result won't effect your mood.
GRAEME1247
Player Valuation: £225k
I felt a bit strange putting my dad’s picture in my wallet ahead of tonight’s game but I feel reassured knowing I’m not the only one doing it.
He passed away last summer and the first time it hit me properly was after the weekend of when all the results went our way and we beat Leicester and grabbed my phone instantly to call him and quickly realised he wasn’t there.
That’s what’s made this season so difficult for me, knowing he’s not there to tell me it’s going to be ok like he was in 94 and 98.
Blues Harp
Player Valuation: £60m
@ToffeeDan @Drico
Both your post's resonate with me, having lost my bro last year, a mad blue.
Remember him saying in the pub after the Wimbledon game in that he never ever wanted to go through "that" again. Of course we did it again 4 years later, but tonight I will be thinking of him and believing we can win and stay up.
Let's do this fellow Blues for those no longer with us in body but in spirit
COYB!!
NathDogg
Player Valuation: £50m
So sorry for you’re loss mate, and for having to cope with this terrible season without him - there’s nothing wrong with us wanting them to be there in some way.
My pop passed a few years back, just before covid kicked off, and I still miss him at the match or just chatting about anything (normally footy or the bloody tories) even now - I don’t think I ever won’t.
I’ll have a pint for your old man and my grandad tonight mate - praying we’re toasting a win and survival by the end.
Death
I'll take down dat coal powered MG, I tel u Hwat
We are on trial today. Tonight is the verdict. Lose then we are sentence to the guillotine.
Sunday will be our heads in the guillotine hoping zoro can come an d rescue us.
Drico
Player Valuation: £70m
Isn't it strange how something as maddening as Evertonianism can actually make you feel closer to those you lost. All the best for this evening.
Drico
Player Valuation: £70m
Indeed. This is the Everest of Mismanagement, and these clubs represent the basket cases of basket cases. In truth, the special guest referee for this encounter should be Bill Kenwright.
Babysitting my Grandson, got to get my car fixed and my eye twitch is on about 150 mph atm.
I am NOT coping well.
Send help
I am NOT coping well.
Send help
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