Relegation 23/24 Thread

Bournemouth certainly did us a big favour last night.

That leaves Luton 4 points and an 8 inferior GD to us with 10 to play, including away games to Spurs, Arsenal, City, Wolves and West Ham.

Even with our chronic form since December, Luton have only gained 1 point more than us in the last 10 games.

That's ignoring Forest and their looming points deduction and Brentford who are only just ahead of us in the table as well.

Still plenty of points to play for and anything can happen, but it's still very much in our hands.
If it’s in our hands we’re doomed. We need other teams to rescue us. The incoming 6 point deduction could be fatal.
 

Since the end of Jan they've scored 13 in the league, and conceded 21.
I'm counting 31st January where they scored 4 as end of January. Granted they concede loads.

However, if they beat us as they've already done twice, and our form doesn't improve, they'll finish above us.

And in all likelihood that'll mean relegation for us.

It's in our hands, but I wouldn't trust us to do the job.
 
1) Draw
2)Forest win
3)Luton win.

If we were really brave then hope for a Forest win ahead of their expected points deduction.
That order is right I reckon but tbh I think after last night Saturday is pretty stress free for us, in the sense that any result really has potential upside and so there isn’t one to fear.

Forest winning keeps Luton at arms length with a tough run of games coming. Gives us the opportunity to widen the gap (whether we take it is another matter).

Luton winning keeps two teams behind us, and keeping Forest behind us is our key insurance policy for points deductions.

Draw does both and so is ideal but neither of the other results is particularly bad so it’s not going to be one to lose sleep over.
 

I'm counting 31st January where they scored 4 as end of January. Granted they concede loads.

However, if they beat us as they've already done twice, and our form doesn't improve, they'll finish above us.

And in all likelihood that'll mean relegation for us.

It's in our hands, but I wouldn't trust us to do the job.
This is the main bit though - it's up to us.
Luton have shown fight, they've shown they can score plenty, but they've shown they WILL concede too.

Luton will pick up some more points, but for all the media fawning (and plenty of other team's fans who pat them on the head and say "aren't you a breath of fresh air, playing open football, and letting us win 6-4") they are very unlikely to put a huge run together and hit 38-40 points. Based on results so far, and their many 'great' and plucky performances, they are on track for finishing the season with under 30 points.

We have a four-point cushion over them, plus a better goal difference. If we go down, it should be due to further points deductions and nothing else.
 
This is the main bit though - it's up to us.
Luton have shown fight, they've shown they can score plenty, but they've shown they WILL concede too.

Luton will pick up some more points, but for all the media fawning (and plenty of other team's fans who pat them on the head and say "aren't you a breath of fresh air, playing open football, and letting us win 6-4") they are very unlikely to put a huge run together and hit 38-40 points. Based on results so far, and their many 'great' and plucky performances, they are on track for finishing the season with under 30 points.

We have a four-point cushion over them, plus a better goal difference. If we go down, it should be due to further points deductions and nothing else.
Think it will be massive the 4th may have luton and forest before that,
 
Hard to know what result is best on Saturday. Probably a draw, but who knows

Probably a draw as it keeps both sides below us with Luton staying 3 points behind (plus a worse GD) having played a game more than us.

But to be honest, I don't think either team winning is too much of a negative.

Forest win and Luton stay where they are (GD taking another hit), Forest move 2 points above us but with their (probably larger than ours) point deduction on the horizon.

Luton win, we stay ahead of both, depending on the final score Forest could drop into the relegation zone. Then it's a real test of their character, again with the looming points deduction.

Ultimately, none of this matters if we win 3 of our remaining 10... even with another points deduction I think that would see us safe.
 

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