I've been through this with you more times than I can count Tom. So again...
The plan would have to go something like this, years dot to 3 we build a massive Park End upper tier similar to what they have across the park and as we don't have an upper tier to rip out it will be cheaper but still probably at least 70 million if we bake in some better hospitality sections. Great we now have a 49k capacity and even if the extras all pay an adult ticket price (this won't happen of course) that's an extra 550k per match. To repay that loan to be able to take on the next phase means almost all of that income would go on repayment.
We would lose almost all of the car park and fan plaza which will decrease income - how much I don't know but it will be something. Supporters still stick to their habits of drinking in pubs and getting into the stadium as late as possible, so not much change there. People who are currently sat behind posts in the other stands may move to the new upper tier as the demand would decrease dramatically now there isn't a countdown on Goodison remaining. This might mean we are paying for the redevelopment out of the club's pocket or we need to repay over a longer term.
Years 3 to 10 (possibly even 13-15) we've payed off enough of the 70 million and increased income through TV deals to think about redeveloping another stand. Only this time the business case is looking ropey as we have a 49k stadium that is regularly only filled by 45-47k. It is decided rightly this is due to poor facilities and restricted views so we push on regardless but whatever stand you pick it isn't going to be easy and will need the footprint expanded substantially and time and inflation means this stand is going to cost at least 150 million but probably a lot more. At this point if we target a total capacity of 60k we can rebuild say the main stand by straightening the road and adding 8 to 10k seats to make the extra seats pay the debt you are taking on and we'll run into the fact we'll lose capacity while it is being rebuilt. If in a hypothetical world we've paid off the PE development by this point would all go to pay for the extra cost the new stand would cost. Years 11-15 to 29-31 would be spent building and repaying that.
This also means redevelopment of the GS and BR would be entirely just to modernise as adding seats would take us beyond 60k which we probably wouldn't fill as in all this time we haven't added income to go back into the team.
No tournaments, no concerts, increases in stadium tours, little publicity. I love Goodison but by knocking down the quaintness it would stop being what is anyhow. If our board had been forward thinking and rebuilt at least two of the stands to what is now required it would have been great to stay and complete the job. They unfortunately didn't.
Yes BM is currently a problem to be resolved but as long as the new owners can sort out the build costs into a respectable bank loan, with half decent naming rights it will make us money to invest into the team and a hell of a lot sooner than what we could have achieved at Goodison. It's done anyhow it's pointless going around in circles, difficult or brilliant we have to get on with it.
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