Moyes' substitution taboo

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Azza

Player Valuation: £80m
Pretty sad I know but the City - Chelsea match isn't that all enthralling and I was wondering about the 'numbers' involved with this 'problem'. I think it's one of the biggest frustrations Evertonians have with Moyes, 'negative' subs, subs too late into the game or subs which are just plain for us all to see but not Moyes himself. Arm chair manager mode I know, but on a couple of occasions this season it's been glaringly obvious. So I thought I will have a look comparing him against Fergie who he has been widely tipped to replace when he retires and Martinez who's odds on favourite to replace Moyes if he goes in the summer.

Here is a little table with some of the numbers from the Premier League season so far. We have number of subs made, average time of first sub (this average includes subs which may have happened in the first half because of a player injury), number of 'negative' or non like for like subs meaning a defender coming on in place of a forward or midfielder and playing at the back to sure things up as it were, and number / % of subs made after 80+ minutes into the game.


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I'm going to be honest when I first started loading up the tabs of the match reports I was expecting to find this not to be the problem it's made out to be and I was thinking I'd make a post to say how it's not that bad and people blow it out of proportion in the heat of the moment during the matches but now I'll be labeled a Moyes hater for digging this up or that it's a pointless topic for discussion. lolol

It does make you wonder though. Is Moyes a 'ditherer'? Over 44% of subs in the last 10 minutes, is that enough time for a player to make an impact? 73 minutes on average until he makes a sub... is it a lack of quality on the bench, he doesn't trust the bench players to change the game, not able to adapt to a game or the situation? Attacking mentality to close out games or push for a winning goal, or just because he hopes it won't disrupt things late on.




Sub times from BBC Sport.
 

Moyes isn't a ditherer as such, he just has a very, very formulaic system. So he doesn't hesitate to make a switch; he doesn't even consider it unless it was already in his mind to do so before the game.

Subs do not come on before the 60th minute - ever. Any change is either like for like or defensive. Any attacking change usually means a midfielder is pushed up front.

Any change before the 60th minute is always the result of an injury, not due to a tactical observation.

He uses two subs usually - 60th/70th minute, 75/85th minute and then he'll make the third sub every now and again after 88 minutes.

As you say, this isn't Moyes bashing - it's actuality. The man is awful tactically because he sets out his plans pre-game and doesn't adjust during it, and you can count on one hand the amount of times he's made a forceful substitution or tactical switch to positively change a game.
 
How do you determine a "negative" sub?

Like Yesterday, most people think the taking off of the totally ineffective Jelavic(Striker) for another Striker in Mirallas was negative, when it was simply removing a crap striker, for another striker, a striker who scored a Hatrick last time he played as a striker for Everton.
 
How do you determine a "negative" sub?

Like Yesterday, most people think the taking off of the totally ineffective Jelavic(Striker) for another Striker in Mirallas was negative, when it was simply removing a crap striker, for another striker, a striker who scored a Hatrick last time he played as a striker for Everton.

Yeah but two strikers are always better than one. He should have taken a midfielder off or something. Like Fergie did against Spurs, proceeding to concede in injury time.
 

How do you determine a "negative" sub?

Like Yesterday, most people think the taking off of the totally ineffective Jelavic(Striker) for another Striker in Mirallas was negative, when it was simply removing a crap striker, for another striker, a striker who scored a Hatrick last time he played as a striker for Everton.

Naismith did the same... In preseason.
 
Great thread mate. Thanks for the effort.

How do you determine a "negative" sub?

He explained that.

Like Yesterday, most people think the taking off of the totally ineffective Jelavic(Striker) for another Striker in Mirallas was negative, when it was simply removing a crap striker, for another striker, a striker who scored a Hatrick last time he played as a striker for Everton.

It was a defensive sub. Felli was pushed forward...
 
Don't think yesterday was a particularly negative sub (although it should've been Naismith IMO), the negativity came when we stopped bothering to keep the ball and set up camp on our own 6 yard line.
 

How do you determine a "negative" sub?

Like Yesterday, most people think the taking off of the totally ineffective Jelavic(Striker) for another Striker in Mirallas was negative, when it was simply removing a crap striker, for another striker, a striker who scored a Hatrick last time he played as a striker for Everton.


As I said a non like for like sub... e.g. bringing Heitinga on and taking off some one who isn't a defender like Jelavic and sticking him at the back for 5-10 minutes. Taking off a like for like isn't defensive, if Jelavic is playing rubbish and you bring on Mirallas to play up front that's not negative.
 
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How do you determine a "negative" sub?

Like Yesterday, most people think the taking off of the totally ineffective Jelavic(Striker) for another Striker in Mirallas was negative, when it was simply removing a crap striker, for another striker, a striker who scored a Hatrick last time he played as a striker for Everton.

It wasn't a negative sub as such but it sure as hell wasn't a positive sub either.

It was pretty much like for like. Now if Jelavic had been playing crap and missing chances, giving the ball away then yeah, its fine to take him off and bring another striker on who might do better. But when that striker gets 1 half chance and barely gets a sniff of the ball in the area its pointless just making a like for like swap, as shown by Mirallas having 1 tame long range shot after coming on.

A positive sub would have been taking off the completly inefective right mid for Mirallas, therefor improving that position thus making it more likely that the striker who wasn't getting a chance, would.

Like for like subs when nothing else changes are easy but often ineffective, subs which have an effect on how the game plays out shows a much better understanding of substitution.
 
He didnt answer if he considers yesterdays sub defensive.

How is taking off a Striker for a Striker considered Defensive?

Its clearly not attacking, but its like for like.

Well...

Jelavic is a striker first and foremost.
Mirallas is a winger first and foremost.

Yesterday, Moyes replaced a striker (Jelavic) for a winger (Mirallas). The winger (Mirallas) went out to the wing and the defensive midfielder (Fellaini) went central/led the line...
 
Well...

Jelavic is a striker first and foremost.
Mirallas is a winger first and foremost.

Yesterday, Moyes replaced a striker (Jelavic) for a winger (Mirallas). The winger (Mirallas) went out to the wing and the defensive midfielder (Fellaini) went central/led the line...

Apparently Mirallas is a boss striker though
 

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