Kevin Thelwell - New Director of Football

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Realistically, anything we get from having Dominic Calvert-Lewin on the pitch probably comes off Maupay's totals, in part.

We got 13 goals from behind the forwards last season - 15 if you count Iwobi, who is now playing further back. We're going to need another team effort like that to score enough if we don't get the production up top. Time to start drilling set pieces, boys.

When you start counting, it's really hard to see where goals are coming from, but it's sensible (hopefully Lampard / Thelwell are doing this) to make a guess based on individual players.
We had 61 goals in 2013/14, and 43 last year.
A really successful season means 60 ish - but anything more than 50 is a big improvement I think.

15 DCL?
20 from Gray, Gordon, Townsend and McNeil
10 from Maupay
10 from midfielders?
5 from defenders?

Imagine all that - it's a big ask and much more than previous years!
 
Kudus deal falling through is a big bummer as he would have brought creativity. I imagine Broja has always been our top forward target this window and we may just be able to pull it off
 
When you start counting, it's really hard to see where goals are coming from, but it's sensible (hopefully Lampard / Thelwell are doing this) to make a guess based on individual players.
We had 61 goals in 2013/14, and 43 last year.
A really successful season means 60 ish - but anything more than 50 is a big improvement I think.

15 Dominic Calvert-Lewin?
20 from Gray, Gordon, Townsend and McNeil
10 from Maupay
10 from midfielders?
5 from defenders?

Imagine all that - it's a big ask and much more than previous years!
Those goal tallies almost certainly are not happening. The plan appears to have been to tighten up at the back, because 40 in/50 conceded is very consistently lower mid-table over the years. The closest anyone's ever flirted with disaster on those kind of numbers was Sunderland in 12/13, finishing 17th and staying up by three points and goal differential while scoring 41 and conceding 54. That's a huge outlier.

If you look at the historical tables, it's when a club scores 35 or fewer or leaks 60+ that they can get shipped down. Whether or not that happens depends on just how pants the remaining teams at the foot of the table are. You can go down scoring around 45 if you're leaky enough (rare), or stay up on 28 (Huddersfield) if you're stingy and the rest of the league is dire.

Either way, the best thing to do is take the guesswork out of it, which is what it looks like Lampard and Thelwell are trying to do by stitching together an attack and tightening up at the back.
 

I'm trying so hard to understand his train of thought:

Last year we only just about stayed up and we had two strikers, Richarlison and DCL.

We knew all season that Richarlison was being sold.

We're replaced him with Maupay.

= we're gonna be better?

For all the good work that's been done, he's massively, massively let himself down by not getting a good striker in.

Now watch DCL miss several months of the season and we ARE getting relegated off this decision alone.
 

Done well over the last week or so, this window was never going to be easy, every pound had to justified, not just too FFP eyes but to ourselves.
We've made the squad better and if Gordon can carry on with the form few of us predicted he would find, this season should be less stress then the last.
 
I'm trying so hard to understand his train of thought:

Last year we only just about stayed up and we had two strikers, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

We knew all season that Richarlison was being sold.

We're replaced him with Maupay. Did we

= we're gonna be better?

For all the good work that's been done, he's massively, massively let himself down by not getting a good striker in.

Now watch Dominic Calvert-Lewin miss several months of the season and we ARE getting relegated off this decision alone.
We have missed a trick not getting another striker in (still 40 mins to go at time of writing) but still a decent window IMO
 

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