Alright, my views on this the subjects raised here.
We know Vettel was good in bad machinery. I think in the same way Senna and Schumi (especially his championship at Benneton.....absolute dog of a car, driven expertly by a rookie Schumi and co-developed the Brawn and Bryne) were, but with the advances in technology make the driver secondary (with the sole exception of Luca Badoer) to the ability of the car. The talent on show is now much more equalized by the machinery as the teams are now sharpening the edge, now they find 1/100ths of a second with part upgrades, rather than the 1/2 second to 1 second improvements of the 80s and 90s.
Mercedes are going to steal a couple of wins this year, as Schumi's input on developing their car is going to have finally have paid off. The question will be does Brawn favor him over Rosberg, like he did at Ferrari for all those years.
Vettel is fast, no doubt, especially in qualifying. His actual ability to be a complete driver is going to be called in question this year, especially with the fast wearing Pirelli's (this will be the equalizer for me this year, raw talent versus experience). Him and Hamilton are going to have to fast learn the fine art of tire management, something they didnt have to worry about with Bridgestone. My money, for this first race, is going to go with drivers who have real racing experience.
My podium looks like this (barring first corner incidents):
Webber
Button
Shumi