Evolution of the Premier League

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billycopper

Player Valuation: £40m
I see the Premier League changing over the next 3 years. Unless United, Liverpool and Chelsea do something drastic, I can see them slipping away from the top of the Premier League and being replaced by City, Spurs and either Villa or ourselves.

United are, according to today's Football Focus, virtually bankrupt. The Glazers are taking £22m out of the club every year. The signing of Smalling may well have been to appease fans with concerns over the solvency of the club. It most-likely signals the exit of Vidic during the summer. Neville, Scholes and Giggs are all close to retirement. Ferdinand is woefully short of form and fitness. Anderson, Nani and Berbatov are showing no signs of fulfilling their potential. Where would they be without Rooney? What if the Glazers decide to cash in on their prize asset? What if Fergie announces his retirement? They have a big rebuilding job on their hands.

Liverpool rely too much on Torres and Gerrard. Without them, they're a very ordinary side. Again the club is experiencing financial difficulties. What if City, for example, came in with a colossal bid for either or both of those players? Benayoun is supposedly departing for Russia and Benitez seems Juventus-bound. Liverpool are another club with major restructuring work to do.

Abromovich has told Chelsea that they must now stand on their own two feet financially. The problem being that the core of the team (Cech, Carvalho, Ashley Cole, Ballack, Joe Cole, Deco, Lampard and Anelka) are all coming to the end of their peaks. It takes time, and very often money, to bring through youngsters of sufficient quality to bring the average age of the side down.

Arsenal, Villa, Spurs and ourselves have been gradually building over a number of years. Our squads are of the right age. Financially, the clubs are stable. We're each looking for the final pieces of the jigsaw to take us up to the next level. Arsenal will no doubt be at the forefront of that, challenging City, and performing well in the Champions League. I feel that Villa are a little formulaic and that they lack strength in depth. Barry is a big loss for them. Spurs have a lot of good players and are exciting to watch. Consistency and defensive issues are their biggest undoing. I feel that we're closer to having the side that can compete than either of those two. Unfortunately, they have an edge on us financially.

I'm not saying that United, Liverpool and Chelsea will fall away completely, although it's not inconcievable. All three clubs have spent time in the 'wilderness' in the time that I've been following football. My point is that I feel there's an opportunity coming for the clubs who have been patiently building a side over a number of years to challenge the monopoly over trophies that the 'big 4' have enjoyed for a number of years. We could be entering a new phase for English football, not too dissimilar to the late seventies and early eighties, where compact, well-organised teams such as Forest, Ipswich and even ourselves enjoyed success on the national and european stage.

Ofcourse enjoying a spell at the summit of the league would mean Champions League income for ourselves rather than our neighbours across Stanley Park, which would compound their problems still further. Now, wouldn't that be a shame?!
 

Have to say I don't think this at all I'm afraid mate. The main thing you seem to be missing is that whilst clubs like us have been 'patiently building a side', United and Chelsea have been signing all the best players in world football that are aged 4-16. I find it very, very hard to believe that all the best players in those two teams will retire simultaneously and all of a sudden they'll struggle to fill in the gaps.
 

Plenty of good points there, but i dont think it will be as dramatic as some of those points make it sound. The 'Big 4' will definitely not be what it has been in the past though. It looks like there will be 5-6 clubs competing for Champions League spots in the future.
 
interesting read but NO sorry mate just cant see it happening expecially the chealsea and man u falling away. There will always be a buyer for utd if they did go up the wall but welcome to GOT
 
Ok, so take United. They've 'skimmed' Tosic, De Laet, Fabio, Smalling, Manucho etc. Signing players at that stage of their development is a massive gamble. When was the last time that Fergie signed a player in his teens who went on to establish himself in the side? Ronaldo? You could argue a case for Fabio. Aside from that, none of the wonderkids that Fergie has nurtured have made the grade in a long time.

Look at Liverpool. They've only just re-opened their academy and started investing in youth. The last youth team product to make it through for the dark side was Steven Gerrard over a decade ago. Unless you're counting N'gog?!!

How about Chelsea? They've poached players like Sturridge and Mikel. They also have Mancienne, although I can't say he's stood out at Wolves.

To replace ageing legs in a team you need to generally be bringing players through who are in their early to mid twenties. It wouldn't be feasible to think of replacing Scholes with a 16 year old straight out of the academy. It would need to be someone more of Darren Gibson's age, who has been out on loan and who has been around the first team long enough to know how the system operates. Is Gibson good enough though? Is Wellbeck good enough?

Certainly at Liverpool and United, their star players are covering for the deficiencies of their team mates. I'm sure that Liverpool fans would readily admit it. Talking to a United fan today, it's beginning to dawn on them that things aren't looking as rosy as they'd imagined.
 
The clue is in your thread title: 'evolution'. That implies that all things carrying on in the present direction will result in a coming together of the fortunes of one group of clubs making steady progress through good housekeeping with another more successful group on the wane. But things dont work in that linear fashion. The football world is also prone to 'revolution': we saw that with the Man City takeover and the way thast tore up the rule book like Chelsea did before it. There'll be more tumult when/if United and Liverpool - two clubs who'll coin it in forever and a day as a global brand whilst there's still interest in football - are sold again.

Yours is a static analysis for me.
 

I don't think any of us know much about the talent and potential of their youth team to make a correct judgement.
We even have difficulties judging our youth squad.
 
I think Chelsea are coming out with all this self sustained business claptrap to keep the 'you bought the league brigade' off their back.

There is not a chance in hell that while Abromovich is there Chelsea will slip down outside the CL places.
 
The clue is in your thread title: 'evolution'. That implies that all things carrying on in the present direction will result in a coming together of the fortunes of one group of clubs making steady progress through good housekeeping with another more successful group on the wane. But things dont work in that linear fashion. The football world is also prone to 'revolution': we saw that with the Man City takeover and the way thast tore up the rule book like Chelsea did before it. There'll be more tumult when/if United and Liverpool - two clubs who'll coin it in forever and a day as a global brand whilst there's still interest in football - are sold again.

Yours is a static analysis for me.

Ofcourse things will crop up. Who could have predicted City being bought out by the richest man in the world? It's more of a trend/ theory that I'm suggesting. I'm putting it out there that the mega-rich clubs can be caught and even overtaken by smaller, well-run clubs who have moulded a well-organised team over a number of seasons.

I thought that I over-analysed things until you came along! lol
 
Ok, so take United. They've 'skimmed' Tosic, De Laet, Fabio, Smalling, Manucho etc. Signing players at that stage of their development is a massive gamble. When was the last time that Fergie signed a player in his teens who went on to establish himself in the side? Ronaldo? You could argue a case for Fabio. Aside from that, none of the wonderkids that Fergie has nurtured have made the grade in a long time.

Look at Liverpool. They've only just re-opened their academy and started investing in youth. The last youth team product to make it through for the dark side was Steven Gerrard over a decade ago. Unless you're counting N'gog?!!

How about Chelsea? They've poached players like Sturridge and Mikel. They also have Mancienne, although I can't say he's stood out at Wolves.

To replace ageing legs in a team you need to generally be bringing players through who are in their early to mid twenties. It wouldn't be feasible to think of replacing Scholes with a 16 year old straight out of the academy. It would need to be someone more of Darren Gibson's age, who has been out on loan and who has been around the first team long enough to know how the system operates. Is Gibson good enough though? Is Wellbeck good enough?

Certainly at Liverpool and United, their star players are covering for the deficiencies of their team mates. I'm sure that Liverpool fans would readily admit it. Talking to a United fan today, it's beginning to dawn on them that things aren't looking as rosy as they'd imagined.

Agreed, I almost edited my post to include 18-22 year olds. Pretty much when you get to the top level it's about having the 3-4 players in the spine of your team that are world class. Who knows who those players will be in the future. Fabregas is the main one really, 22 years old, already very experienced, if Arsenal keep him they are a step ahead of everyone else just with him alone.
 
All i can see happening is that they may not win the league by such a big margin but they will still win it.
 

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