Crypto currency (IF banned from CA)

The Gueye Science · June 14, 2022

DuuuncanHadaPigeon said:
It depends how selective you want to be of your time frame. If you invested $1 when it launched it would be a good hedge, if you invested $1 when the fed increased rates it would be a bad hedge.

It can be designed to be something and fail in that endeavour, just like Bitcoin was designed to be P2P digital cash and failed also.

Typically there has only ever been two real actual use cases for crypto and they are, store of value and speculation. In both those cases the only thing that matters is, price go up.

Crypto is just a slow, expensive database. One of its only real useful features is censorship resistance, which I personally place a lot of value in.

I suppose it just seems like a very poor store of value/hedge against inflation given that the moment the market started to worry about inflation, it promptly lost 80% of its value.

So the reasoning is that, at a time of soaring energy, housing, food, petrol, borrowing and tax expenses, spiralling credit card debt, declining wages in real terms, essential workers calling in sick because they can't afford to get to work, consumer sentiment lower than it was during the 2008 crash, and, in Britain, an economic contraction, with recessions forecast for the Eurozone, China and even American, a tide of disposable income from individual retail investors is going to drive it back up 80% to where it was before? Is that your position?

DuuuncanHadaPigeon · June 14, 2022

MikelsGoat said:
That crypto is heavily used in the child trafficking and drug trade.

Is cash not heavily used in the child trafficking and drug trade?

0.15% of crypto transactions are illicit in 2021

Crypto Crime Trends for 2022: Illicit Transaction Activity Reaches All-Time High in Value, All-Time Low in Share of All Cryptocurrency Activity - Chainalysis

Did you know Cryptocurrency-based crime hit a high in 2021, with illicit addresses receiving $14 bn? Read a preview of the Chainalysis 2022 Crypto Crime Report.

blog.chainalysis.com

One bank launders £3 billion of cartel money

Overview

www.unodc.org

I have never denied that crypto is used for illegal things, but does it make up 100% of the child trafficking and drug trade? No and I don't know why you are making out I making some sort of controversial claim.

Goat · June 14, 2022

DuuuncanHadaPigeon said:
Is cash not heavily used in the child trafficking and drug trade?

0.15% of crypto transactions are illicit in 2021

Crypto Crime Trends for 2022: Illicit Transaction Activity Reaches All-Time High in Value, All-Time Low in Share of All Cryptocurrency Activity - Chainalysis

Did you know Cryptocurrency-based crime hit a high in 2021, with illicit addresses receiving $14 bn? Read a preview of the Chainalysis 2022 Crypto Crime Report.

blog.chainalysis.com

One bank launders £3 billion of cartel money

Overview

Overview

www.unodc.org

I have never denied that crypto is used for illegal things, but does it make up 100% of the child trafficking and drug trade? No and I don't know why you are making out I making some sort of controversial claim.

Cash is harder to launder than crypto.

IPs are vastly easier to mask, so whilst you might be able to track the coins, you really have no idea who owns them or what they were used for.

We wont find a middle ground on this, so im gonna dip, LIKE ALL THE FAKE COINS!

DuuuncanHadaPigeon · June 14, 2022

The Gueye Science said:
I suppose it just seems like a very poor store of value/hedge against inflation given that the moment the market started to worry about inflation, it promptly lost 80% of its value.

So the reasoning is that, at a time of soaring energy, housing, food, petrol, borrowing and tax expenses, spiralling credit card debt, declining wages in real terms, essential workers calling in sick because they can't afford to get to work, consumer sentiment lower than it was during the 2008 crash, and, in Britain, an economic contraction, with recessions forecast for the Eurozone, China and even American, a tide of disposable income from individual retail investors is going to drive it back up 80% to where it was before? Is that your position?

In the past year it is a terrible store of value yes, I think gold has been about the only semi decent store of value, but gold is a terrible investment.

What an odd way to frame my imaginary position?

The Gueye Science · June 14, 2022

DuuuncanHadaPigeon said:
In the past year it is a terrible store of value yes, I think gold has been about the only semi decent store of value, but gold is a terrible investment.

What an odd way to frame my imaginary position?

Perhaps you could explain why you think it is still a good investment, given what I've mentioned? Where is the money going to come from to increase its value, as a purely speculative tool?

DuuuncanHadaPigeon · June 14, 2022

MikelsGoat said:
Cash is harder to launder than crypto.

IPs are vastly easier to mask, so whilst you might be able to track the coins, you really have no idea who owns them or what they were used for.

We wont find a middle ground on this, so im gonna dip, LIKE ALL THE FAKE COINS!

Criminals launder £6.4 billion in 2021 using crypto - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60072195

The UN estimates up to $2 trillion is laundered every year (5% of global GDP) - https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/money-laundering/overview.html

Crypto laundering is a tiny fraction of the total

You don't want to find middle ground. I am glad you are now admitting you were wrong and you can track the coins instead of saying 'they leave no trail'

Goat · June 14, 2022

DuuuncanHadaPigeon said:
Criminals launder £6.4 billion in 2021 using crypto - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60072195

The UN estimates up to $2 trillion is laundered every year (5% of global GDP) - https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/money-laundering/overview.html

Crypto laundering is a tiny fraction of the total

You don't want to find middle ground. I am glad you are now admitting you were wrong and you can track the coins instead of saying 'they leave no trail'

I meant they cant track who owns them or what they were used for.

But honestly, it doesnt matter, you have your views, I have mine.

DuuuncanHadaPigeon · June 14, 2022

The Gueye Science said:
Perhaps you could explain why you think it is still a good investment, given what I've mentioned? Where is the money going to come from to increase its value, as a purely speculative tool?

Do we agree on the following;

We are in a global recession/bear market
It will not last forever and stocks/markets/crypto will recover and economies recover.

If we agree on these things (I get you may have to indulge the idea that money will flow back into crypto) then we can logically say, the best time to buy assets/speculative instruments is at the bottom of a recession/bear market, where prices are very low and market sentiment is full of fear.

In my opinion, in the crypto market, HEX is one of the best if not best coin out there. I have given my reasons for this many times in this thread. I am not buying right now, I still think the market has a long way to crash. Crypto crashes harder than any other market so you will see 85-95% dips, but in crypto you also have the opportunity to outperform any other market on the way up. BTC did a 6million % rise from $1 to $60k...

DuuuncanHadaPigeon · June 14, 2022

MikelsGoat said:
I meant they cant track who owns them or what they were used for.

But honestly, it doesnt matter, you have your views, I have mine.

It is easier to track who owns them than the £20 in my back pocket and easier to see what it was used for.

That's fine. It is easier to find middle ground in an argument when your first comment isn't 'HAHAHAHAHAHA'

The Gueye Science · June 14, 2022

DuuuncanHadaPigeon said:
Do we agree on the following;

We are in a global recession/bear market

It will not last forever and stocks/markets/crypto will recover and economies recover.

If we agree on these things (I get you may have to indulge the idea that money will flow back into crypto) then we can logically say, the best time to buy assets/speculative instruments is at the bottom of a recession/bear market, where prices are very low and market sentiment is full of fear.

In my opinion, in the crypto market, HEX is one of the best if not best coin out there. I have given my reasons for this many times in this thread. I am not buying right now, I still think the market has a long way to crash. Crypto crashes harder than any other market so you will see 85-95% dips, but in crypto you also have the opportunity to outperform any other market on the way up. BTC did a 6million % rise from $1 to $60k...

I agree that stocks and markets will eventually recover, but I don't see the case for crypto, especially after so many people will have lost everything and will feel conned following the Super Bowl ad blitz etc. The proponents just seem to repeat variations of "it will go up because it has done before so it must go up again". But it has no real use, except as a speculative instrument.

A bit like Beany Babies (which did not go up again).

DuuuncanHadaPigeon · June 14, 2022

The Gueye Science said:
I agree that stocks and markets will eventually recover, but I don't see the case for crypto, especially after so many people will have lost everything and will feel conned following the Super Bowl ad blitz etc. The proponents just seem to repeat variations of "it will go up because it has done before so it must go up again". But it has no real use, except as a speculative instrument.

A bit like Beany Babies (which did not go up again).

Fair enough. I think crypto will recover but agree there is a lot more pain to come before that can happen.

Central banks will slow down with QE but eventually they will ramp it up again and that money has to go somewhere, I believe crypto will see some of that. Retail will get washed out but come back again. I said earlier I don't think the next run up won't be till end of 2023 (ish) so a lot of time for retail to lick their wounds.