Contracts -- an opportunity

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Zatara

Player Valuation: £90m
Whatever happens this season, the next two summers provide an opportunity to rebuild the squad and save a fortune in wages.

There are 19 players out of contract this, and next summer (listed at the bottom).

That would leave us with the following players contracted until 2025 and beyond:

GK: Pickford (2027), Tyrer (2025)
RB: Patterson (2027)
CB: Branthwaite (2025), Keane (2025),
CB: Tarkowski (2026), Holgate (2025)
LB: Mykolenko (2026), Godfrey (2025)
LW: McNeil (2027), Dobbin (2025)
CM: Onana (2027),
CM: Garner (2026)
RW: Mills (2025)
CF: DCL (2025)
CF Cannon (2025), Maupay (2025)

Clearly theres a few that need to be moved on but thats still 17 players on the books. To be retained or generate fees.

Meanwhile we'd perhaps clear £1mil a week (£52mil a year) in saved wages from those out of contract.

Our FFP should be vastly improved and with a handful of incomings/outgoings there could (and should) be a vast difference on the pitch.

Stay up and its a huge opportunity, go down and we organically slice our wage bill with assets still on the books to sell.

Glass not half full but potentially a light at the end of the tunnel.


2023 - 9 Players
Mina
Lonergan
Begovic
Coleman
Townsend
Vinagre
Davies
Coady
Doucoure

2024 - 10 Players
Iwobi
Gray
Gana
Simms
Alli
Gomes
Gbamin
Nkounkou
Virginia
Warrington
 

It’s absolutely clear that operating with a 96% Wages to Turnover is unsustainable.

It means any form of signing is leaving you in debt.

My hope is some of the bigger earners will move on in the summer, and we can start to really rebuild.

For years, we’ve gambled and subsequently failed at trying to match the bigger sides and our turnover isn’t sustainable for that.

Mina - £120k
Gomes - £110k
Iwobi - Rumoured up to £100k (as low as £60k)
Doucoure - Up to £100k
Probably on high wages is someone like Gana, who’ll be off.


I reckon there you’re probably saving about £400-£500k a week, on them alone, we’re saving £20m. It’s things like thag which will help us in the long term.

We simply can’t afford to keep blowing high money on average players.

I’m hoping (and it’s my eternal optimist in me) that going down (or even if we pull off a miracle and stay up) will change how we approach transfers and we start looking to the model of buy low, sell high prospects.
 
Our FFP should be vastly improved and with a handful of incomings/outgoings there could (and should) be a vast difference on the pitch.

Stay up and its a huge opportunity, go down and we organically slice our wage bill with assets still on the books to sell.

Glass not half full but potentially a light at the end of the tunnel.
Oh mate.

That light is a train coming straight for EFC.

I'm all for thinking positive but we have to face reality. This club's existence is not guaranteed, saving £50m or so is good but the facts are we have about £500m to find to survive.
 
Oh mate.

That light is a train coming straight for EFC.

I'm all for thinking positive but we have to face reality. This club's existence is not guaranteed, saving £50m or so is good but the facts are we have about £500m to find to survive.
£50m leaves us at break even if we sell a £60m player every year. Assuming we don't replace with them with anyone who wants paying. It's also assumes that we don't go down because if we do we'll see revenue half.

The scale of the savings we'll need to find is absolutely horrifying
 

Whatever happens this season, the next two summers provide an opportunity to rebuild the squad and save a fortune in wages.

There are 19 players out of contract this, and next summer (listed at the bottom).

That would leave us with the following players contracted until 2025 and beyond:

GK: Pickford (2027), Tyrer (2025)
RB: Patterson (2027)
CB: Branthwaite (2025), Keane (2025),
CB: Tarkowski (2026), Holgate (2025)
LB: Mykolenko (2026), Godfrey (2025)
LW: McNeil (2027), Dobbin (2025)
CM: Onana (2027),
CM: Garner (2026)
RW: Mills (2025)
CF: DCL (2025)
CF Cannon (2025), Maupay (2025)

Clearly theres a few that need to be moved on but thats still 17 players on the books. To be retained or generate fees.

Meanwhile we'd perhaps clear £1mil a week (£52mil a year) in saved wages from those out of contract.

Our FFP should be vastly improved and with a handful of incomings/outgoings there could (and should) be a vast difference on the pitch.

Stay up and its a huge opportunity, go down and we organically slice our wage bill with assets still on the books to sell.

Glass not half full but potentially a light at the end of the tunnel.


2023 - 9 Players
Mina
Lonergan
Begovic
Coleman
Townsend
Vinagre
Davies
Coady
Doucoure

2024 - 10 Players
Iwobi
Gray
Gana
Simms
Alli
Gomes
Gbamin
Nkounkou
Virginia
Warrington

Upon relegation I think you will see sales of Pickford, Onana, McNeil, Garner etc and renewals of likes of Warrington, Virginia.
 
I suspect most fans will simply shrug their shoulders at wage bills, but it is key to progress. The guy to look to is Levy and his approach: being ultra tight is his reputation. The club should almost never allow someone to break the wage structure and for players to get increases they must be earning the club a lot from performances and be a role model for the club - like Kane is England captain, scoring 20 pL goals a season (diving, wimpish, cheating b@$t@rd that he is).

Long term the club will have to adopt the mindset whereby it can only target players to buy with the wage bill also in mind.. If a player earns above that level already - he ain't no longer a target. We've made these exceptions plenty in recent years and the result has been everyone earning truck loads more off the back of it without any improvements at all. We would target almost exclusively, young ambitious players eager to work hard and develop (accepting the flip side to this is that good players will move on to bigger clubs for bigger salaries and that's inevitable unless the club is able to become successful in the time that those players are here).

That being said priorities first. We must stay in the PL. The approach above is a long-term one and won't improve anything in the short term quite the opposite in fact. We would have to adapt to it slowly (I suspect we could be forced though due to our financial position being quite perilous). I would have said we can't afford a huge churn of players out and still stay up next season (think it can only happen if we go down). We've got to be careful. We need a long-term plan with an experienced manager understanding he has to wheel and deal with what he has.
 
Oh mate.

That light is a train coming straight for EFC.

I'm all for thinking positive but we have to face reality. This club's existence is not guaranteed, saving £50m or so is good but the facts are we have about £500m to find to survive.

£500mil ?

Saving £52mil a season is pretty incredible before transfers in/out.

I suspect most fans will simply shrug their shoulders at wage bills, but it is key to progress. The guy to look to is Levy and his approach: being ultra tight is his reputation. The club should almost never allow someone to break the wage structure and for players to get increases they must be earning the club a lot from performances and be a role model for the club - like Kane is England captain, scoring 20 pL goals a season (diving, wimpish, cheating b@$t@rd that he is).

Long term the club will have to adopt the mindset whereby it can only target players to buy with the wage bill also in mind.. If a player earns above that level already - he ain't no longer a target. We've made these exceptions plenty in recent years and the result has been everyone earning truck loads more off the back of it without any improvements at all. We would target almost exclusively, young ambitious players eager to work hard and develop (accepting the flip side to this is that good players will move on to bigger clubs for bigger salaries and that's inevitable unless the club is able to become successful in the time that those players are here).

That being said priorities first. We must stay in the PL. The approach above is a long-term one and won't improve anything in the short term quite the opposite in fact. We would have to adapt to it slowly (I suspect we could be forced though due to our financial position being quite perilous). I would have said we can't afford a huge churn of players out and still stay up next season (think it can only happen if we go down). We've got to be careful. We need a long-term plan with an experienced manager understanding he has to wheel and deal with what he has.

Why cant we afford to move those players on? Barely any of them are worth considering keeping.
 
Upon relegation I think you will see sales of Pickford, Onana, McNeil, Garner etc and renewals of likes of Warrington, Virginia.

Not sure you’ve seen Joao Virginia recent mate.

Currently playing for bottom of the league in the Eredivisie, and was dropped for a 38-year old journeyman about 4 months ago.

He shouldn’t be sticking around.

Warrington, Dobbin, Cannon, Simms will probably see more playing time.
 

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