RobotCrow
Player Valuation: £225k
Since we're all about fighting over whether or not Everton have any hope of a place in Europe, some of you may be interested in a quick and dirty analysis of historical points I threw together; I created it a few months ago to help track how we're doing on a match by match basis.
You can see the full table here, but below are a couple of images.
A few obvious points jump out immediately:
1. With the win over Stoke City, Everton are exactly level with the Everton squad from 2004-2005--the last year we made it to the Champion's League--after the same number of matches. Given the dismal finish of that team (losing 6 of the final 10 matches), this should be comforting for us this year. However...
2. ...Everton finished that year with 61 points, which is the second-lowest 4th-place point total in the history of the Premier League. Indeed, in most years, 61 points is essentially the average point total for the SIXTH-place club.
3. Recent history is even less kind to us--over the past 5 years, 61 points would not even put us in sixth, but would have us 7th or 8th.
4. While Everton's current pace puts us on track for 65 points, which exceeds the long- and short-term historical averages for 5th place, this is virtually certain to be insufficient for 5th place. This year, the current 5th place target is 67 points.
5. The color-coding of Wins, Losses, and Draws makes it abundantly clear (as if it wasn't already) where Everton dropped the ball this year. The mass of beige in the middle of the table, where we drew 8 times in 11 matches just guts me.
6. In order to meet the 5th place target of 67 points, Everton would need to take 16 points from it's final 8 matches--an average of 2 points per match. Looking at the schedule, this seems an incredibly daunting task for ANY club--not just Everton.
@ Spurs
QPR
@ Arsenal
@ Sunderland
Fulham
@ Liverpool
West Ham
@ Chelsea
I'd like to believe that the lads will take 3 points in all of the home fixtures--QPR, Fulham, and West Ham--but reality says there'll be at least a draw in the mix there. With 7 points from those three matches, that means we need 9 points from the visits to Spurs, Arsenal, Sunderland, the RS, and Chelsea. This could be accomplished with 3 wins and 2 losses, or 2 wins and 3 draws.
Ugh.
You can see the full table here, but below are a couple of images.
A few obvious points jump out immediately:
1. With the win over Stoke City, Everton are exactly level with the Everton squad from 2004-2005--the last year we made it to the Champion's League--after the same number of matches. Given the dismal finish of that team (losing 6 of the final 10 matches), this should be comforting for us this year. However...
2. ...Everton finished that year with 61 points, which is the second-lowest 4th-place point total in the history of the Premier League. Indeed, in most years, 61 points is essentially the average point total for the SIXTH-place club.
3. Recent history is even less kind to us--over the past 5 years, 61 points would not even put us in sixth, but would have us 7th or 8th.
4. While Everton's current pace puts us on track for 65 points, which exceeds the long- and short-term historical averages for 5th place, this is virtually certain to be insufficient for 5th place. This year, the current 5th place target is 67 points.
5. The color-coding of Wins, Losses, and Draws makes it abundantly clear (as if it wasn't already) where Everton dropped the ball this year. The mass of beige in the middle of the table, where we drew 8 times in 11 matches just guts me.
6. In order to meet the 5th place target of 67 points, Everton would need to take 16 points from it's final 8 matches--an average of 2 points per match. Looking at the schedule, this seems an incredibly daunting task for ANY club--not just Everton.
@ Spurs
QPR
@ Arsenal
@ Sunderland
Fulham
@ Liverpool
West Ham
@ Chelsea
I'd like to believe that the lads will take 3 points in all of the home fixtures--QPR, Fulham, and West Ham--but reality says there'll be at least a draw in the mix there. With 7 points from those three matches, that means we need 9 points from the visits to Spurs, Arsenal, Sunderland, the RS, and Chelsea. This could be accomplished with 3 wins and 2 losses, or 2 wins and 3 draws.
Ugh.
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