Bad business sense

[Marquis]

As fitness techniques improve, the 'shelf life' of a lot of footballers is extended, and as a generalisation I don't think its necessary to write off many players as they reach 30.

But Kone looks old. That is to say, he doesn't look young. You could use the "shelf-life" argument for someone like Jags who still looks fresh like he is in his mid 20s but Kone could be in his mid 30s for what I saw in the Blackburn game.

 

[Ihaters]

There are of course lots of other issues to be decided when buying a player but my point is I find it strange that it's not a more fundamental question (or at least that's how it seems).

The quote with Cahill isn't relevant as we bought him when he was pretty young (24/25 I think) and got great service out of him.

It's all about opinions but if I was this imaginary chairman and my manager came to me wanting a huge whack for a 30 year old I'd tell him to use his contacts and try and find a 25 year old instead. There's no chief scout that can guarantee anything so it's always a gamble isn't it?

I expect he will next season but I guess for the first season, Kenwrights thinking along the lines of give him what he wants and see what he does with it, as long as it doesn't break the bank. Next year I am making the assumption he' revert to sell to buy for Martinez unless prize and TV money hand Martinez a budget.

 

[Huyton Layne]

If we just buy young we'd have missed out on Distin and Kevin Campbell and I'm glad we did neither. We can't fill the squad with "experienced" players(old) but they're good to have around and sometimes it's all we can look at.

 

[WA Toffee]

While resale value is important for a club like Everton, the first question the manager should be asking himself when looking at transfer targets is "Will he improve the team?"
If he is better than what we currently have, and is available at a price we can afford, then re-sale value becomes less important. Resale value and projected length of service does of course come into the equation when determining what is an acceptable transfer fee, but it shouldn't be the first consideration.

Ronaldinho wouldn't have a huge sell on fee, but I don't think there would be many on here that would refuse to sign him because of that.

 

[Christiffa25]

IMO it's got to be a mix of both, re-sale value has got to be in your thoughts but certainly shouldn't be the defining reason of every transfer. Without looking to much into figures i'd imagine consistant high end finishes, European football, the prize money, TV money and sponsorship deals that comes with those things, far out weighs the potential re-sale values of player trading. Which of course, you are not gonna get on every player you intended to do so on anyway.

Using kone as an example, we don't actually know for sure his cost but his release fee was supposibly 5M. We don't know how much of that fee was performance related or how much his wages are. He could still be sold on in a year or 2 for a small amount. 5M is also a pittance these days, wages are where you can make the best savings to your club. Imagine the cost of RVP's move to utd at the same age as kone....25M fee, about 2.5M a year wage.....

Too much one way or the other spells for disaster IMO, a balancing act for a club like us makes the most sense.

 

[Steve Wigan]

But Kone looks old. That is to say, he doesn't look young. You could use the "shelf-life" argument for someone like Jags who still looks fresh like he is in his mid 20s but Kone could be in his mid 30s for what I saw in the Blackburn game.

Looks can deceive. Peter Reid always looked old. Stanley Matthews kept going at a good level into his 50s. As Paul the blue says above, statistical age and 'looking old' feature wise don't matter if you can still do it. Kone is very sharp, he exposed teams regularly last season(including us) and he didn't look old against Blackburn...particularly when he hit the bar with a rasper. Kevin Philips has signed for another year in the Prem at 40....Giggs....Weir...Richard Gough.....Distin is still quick at the moment....the list is endless. 'Shelf life is not about how you look, its about how you play.

 

[Michael Tsui]

Looks can deceive. Peter Reid always looked old. Stanley Matthews kept going at a good level into his 50s. As Paul the blue says above, statistical age and 'looking old' feature wise don't matter if you can still do it. Kone is very sharp, he exposed teams regularly last season(including us) and he didn't look old against Blackburn...particularly when he hit the bar with a rasper. Kevin Philips has signed for another year in the Prem at 40....Giggs....Weir...Richard Gough.....Distin is still quick at the moment....the list is endless. 'Shelf life is not about how you look, its about how you play.

Unfortunately it is like gambling with probabilities.

Of course if you intend to use a player until he retire there is no problem. However, a shrewd manager would still ask himself does the performance of the player, converted to the difference in prize money with and without it (plus shirt sales or attendance etc) justify the cost of bringing in/keeping this player? If no even if he can play to a high level he has to leave / the deal should not proceed.

 

[njligernj]

I don't want this to be about Kone specifically - he may well turn out to be brilliant for us - but he comes with an added risk that's all I'm saying

He comes with LESS risk *and* LESS upside. The LESS upside is what you (and others) are worried about. Kone is a proven Prem striker. There is no way in the world he is more of a risk than a young striker who might not even be a Prem quality striker. It's not like it was Kone or Soldado and we went with Kone.

Every purchase is a risk. Fans (in general) don't mind taking a risk on a young player because people overrate them and think they increase in value far more often than they do in reality. More young players fail than succeed (especially if the bar for success is as high as it is with Everton: you need to become at worst an average Prem player to break the squad and that's a lot harder than most people think).

Five years ago hundreds of teams in the top 4/5 leagues had probably 2-3 youngish strikers each. So 200-300 players. How many of them became 20+ goal scorers? Even the rate of those who go on to consistently score 10+ in the top leagues isn't very good. More often than not their peak value is based on potential rather than actual performance.

If we had the money I'd take one Soldado over 4 "promising young strikers." Kone is our cut-price budget version of that same logic. It's lower risk; lower upside or higher risk; higher upside.

 

[Dell Boy]

He comes with LESS risk *and* LESS upside. The LESS upside is what you (and others) are worried about. Kone is a proven Prem striker. There is no way in the world he is more of a risk than a young striker who might not even be a Prem quality striker. .

Behave will you - one season and 11 goals.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Van Perise was the same age when he went to United & went for £24m, so everything is relative.

Without the buyout clause in his contract, Whelan would probably have stuck £10m+ on his head.

Football fans want both sides of the 'sell on value' debate, as if that's the game i.e. when buying a player to maximise the sell on value & then re-invest the cash, then I presume that you're shouting from the rooftops that Baines should be sold this window then mate?

 

[Goat]

Did HotDog just compare Kone to Van Persie?

LOL

 

[Number_25]

Van Perise was the same age when he went to United & went for £24m, so everything is relative.

Without the buyout clause in his contract, Whelan would probably have stuck £10m+ on his head.

Football fans want both sides of the 'sell on value' debate, as if that's the game i.e. when buying a player to maximise the sell on value & then re-invest the cash, then I presume that you're shouting from the rooftops that Baines should be sold this window then mate?

Robin van Persie is pure class though.

Personally, I quite like Koné - but £5m for a 30 year old (with the record he has had ) is such a bad move on our part it isn't even funny.

But please remember, we've only signed 4 players - for around £8m.

£2m a player doesn't sound bad.

 

[SerenityNigh]

Supply, demand, and remaining contract. There's not much more to it than this. You can factor in character, experience, and familiarity with certain playing styles, but these all work to reduce supply.

 

[SerenityNigh]

Here is a short list of forwards transferred during the current window into EPL clubs. I've included Tevez' exit here as reference. I may be missing some important signings, and maybe have some numbers wrong, but nevertheless... Maybe you can suggest the money is better spent elsewhere, but I can hardly imagine that Kone is overpriced.

Player Age Price
Alvaro Negredo 27 £22,000,000.00
Stevan Jovetic 23 £22,000,000.00
Andre Schurrle 22 £18,000,000.00
Andy Carroll 24 £15,000,000.00
Wilfried Bony 24 £12,000,000.00
Carlos Tevez 29 £12,000,000.00
Ricky van Wolfswinkel 24 £8,800,000.00
Jozy Altidore 23 £8,500,000.00
Iago Aspas 25 £7,700,000.00
Nacer Chadli 25 £7,000,000.00
Arouna Kone 29 £6,000,000.00
Dwight Gayle 22 £4,500,000.00
David Moberg Karlsson 19 £1,500,000.00
Duncan Watmore 19 £-undisclosed or free
Danny Graham 27 £-undisclosed or free
Nicolas Anelka 34 £-undisclosed or free
Stephen Dobbie 30 £-undisclosed or free
Andreas Cornelius 20 £-undisclosed or free
Nicklas Helenius Jensen 22 £-undisclosed or free
Yaya Sanogo 20 £-undisclosed or free

*If you add in EPL goals (last year) for these players, it's a pretty grim list. Tevez scored the same as Kone, but commands 2x the transfer fee. You can add Anelka's previous goals, but at 34 I can hardly imagine these factor into current production. Several players have scored at other top leagues, but all this to say that £6MM for 11 goals may be a good price, all the whining here notwithstanding.

 

[Dell Boy]

Did HotDog just compare Kone to Van Persie?

LOL

It's all relative lad