A Statistical Analysis of Koeman's Southampton

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catcherintherye

Player Valuation: £80m
Mods if you feel this will be better served in the Koeman thread feel free to move, however it is more of an analysis of how Southampton varied from ourselves and what impact that may have on personnel. Who may benefit etc. All stats evidenced are available at:

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2015-2016

Overall the information I got from the website was positive. In many ways you would expect it to be so, given Souuthampton finished 5 places above us in the league you would expect them to have better stats. However there were 1 or two things that surprised me and I think will add to positive changes. All stats are per game unless otherwise specified.

1) Defensively proficiency.
This will come as quite obvious. Southampton were 7th on shots conceded (12.2) while Everton were 18th on 14.6. We were also 20th on the amounts of fouls committed (ie we hardly committed any while Southampton were 7th).
The other interesting stat was interceptions, Southampton 6th while Everton were 19th (18.6 v 13.4 respectively).

2) Aerial Prowess.
This was the one that surprised me most. Southampton had won the most aerial duals in a game and Everton were towards the bottom. When you couple that with Southampton being 2nd on crosses into the box (25) against Evertons 21 (joint 6-11th) you see a clear pattern of attack. This is also linked to a higher proportion of shots coming in the box (3rd highest in the league with 58%).
In simplistic terms the stats shows Koemans Southampton got crosses into the box and relied on attempts at goal from headers to those crosses.

3) Playing higher up the pitch
Again a key difference here, Southampton spend 30% in their opponents third (joint 3rd) and Everton spend 30% in our own last third (17th and actually 19th when taking home stats).

4) Possession Similar (though more consistent home V away)
It won’t come as a surprise to see us ahead of Southampton re possession. 51.1 V 49.8% were the difference, so 8th V 11th. Not a massive difference though. What is interesting is their possession remains similar home V away (around the 50% mark) whereas we are more 53% home and 48% away.

To summarise the numbers I think there are a lot of positives here. Many have noted the importance of finding a balance between Moyes & Martinez. That is what the numbers display. Possession is not thrown out of the window, but is reduced slightly. I think the way we played at home, high possession and playing in our own third will go. Koeman will look to get us higher up the pitch into the opponents third.


This does fit with his performance on MNF football where he spoke of the need to have a big lad like Pelle who has a good touch, who you can hit diagonally. While I don’t think this will be the first option (as many complained at under Moyes in how we used Fellaini) we will mix it up a bit and again look to have the balance I allude too.

The Aerial prowess change will be the biggest transformation. I think he will look to bring more height into the side. Strikers we look to buy I imagine will be big lads. At Southampton he went for Long, Pelle & Austin all of them very good in the air. That alongside getting more balls into the box.

Finally I think the interceptions stats show that we will look to win the ball higher up the pitch which again will be a positive for fans.

Overall it is good reading I think we will see a return in style which was quite similar to Joe Royle Side around the 1995/6 years. We will play and pass the ball when we can but also look to get crosses into the box as a central strategy alongside putting the opponents under pressure when we don’t have the ball.

Obviously please come back to me with who you think this will affect positively or negatively. The obvious names that spring to mind for positives are Deulofeu & Baines. Koeman likes crosses and that is their natural game. I think he will like Mori as he is quite dominant in the air.

For those with difficulty, I think Lennon will find it difficult as his end product in wide areas is a real weakness. I think McCarthy has a big season as Koeman like either physical or technical players in central midfield (Wanyama or Claissie) I’m not sure which McCarthy fits.

The other one who may struggle is Barkley. Koemans teams don’t dribble much (lowest in the league for this) and it’s one of Ross’s strengths. He seems to like strength and legs in his front 2 which at present isn’t his strength. Maybe he will need to drop back to be a deep lying playmaker? All food for though. I am a massive fan of Ross so not writing him off at all.

Overall though I think Koeman will focus on tightening us up defensively, I wouldn’t expect too much more than this this season. We will be more up and at them at Goodison and will throw more balls into the box. In general I think we will respond well to that.
 

3) Playing higher up the pitch
Again a key difference here, Southampton spend 30% in their opponents third (joint 3rd) and Everton spend 30% in our own last third (17th and actually 19th when taking home stats).

Doesn't surprise me one bit this one. With Del, Lukaku, Barkley, Kev etc playing higher pressing can only be a good thing.

intersting read mate
 
There's a short video on YT from the Southampton official account with every goal they scored this season.

An absolute buttload of them are headers from crosses. At least 70% I'd guess.
 
Mods if you feel this will be better served in the Koeman thread feel free to move, however it is more of an analysis of how Southampton varied from ourselves and what impact that may have on personnel. Who may benefit etc. All stats evidenced are available at:

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2015-2016

Overall the information I got from the website was positive. In many ways you would expect it to be so, given Souuthampton finished 5 places above us in the league you would expect them to have better stats. However there were 1 or two things that surprised me and I think will add to positive changes. All stats are per game unless otherwise specified.

1) Defensively proficiency.
This will come as quite obvious. Southampton were 7th on shots conceded (12.2) while Everton were 18th on 14.6. We were also 20th on the amounts of fouls committed (ie we hardly committed any while Southampton were 7th).
The other interesting stat was interceptions, Southampton 6th while Everton were 19th (18.6 v 13.4 respectively).

2) Aerial Prowess.
This was the one that surprised me most. Southampton had won the most aerial duals in a game and Everton were towards the bottom. When you couple that with Southampton being 2nd on crosses into the box (25) against Evertons 21 (joint 6-11th) you see a clear pattern of attack. This is also linked to a higher proportion of shots coming in the box (3rd highest in the league with 58%).
In simplistic terms the stats shows Koemans Southampton got crosses into the box and relied on attempts at goal from headers to those crosses.

3) Playing higher up the pitch
Again a key difference here, Southampton spend 30% in their opponents third (joint 3rd) and Everton spend 30% in our own last third (17th and actually 19th when taking home stats).

4) Possession Similar (though more consistent home V away)
It won’t come as a surprise to see us ahead of Southampton re possession. 51.1 V 49.8% were the difference, so 8th V 11th. Not a massive difference though. What is interesting is their possession remains similar home V away (around the 50% mark) whereas we are more 53% home and 48% away.

To summarise the numbers I think there are a lot of positives here. Many have noted the importance of finding a balance between Moyes & Martinez. That is what the numbers display. Possession is not thrown out of the window, but is reduced slightly. I think the way we played at home, high possession and playing in our own third will go. Koeman will look to get us higher up the pitch into the opponents third.


This does fit with his performance on MNF football where he spoke of the need to have a big lad like Pelle who has a good touch, who you can hit diagonally. While I don’t think this will be the first option (as many complained at under Moyes in how we used Fellaini) we will mix it up a bit and again look to have the balance I allude too.

The Aerial prowess change will be the biggest transformation. I think he will look to bring more height into the side. Strikers we look to buy I imagine will be big lads. At Southampton he went for Long, Pelle & Austin all of them very good in the air. That alongside getting more balls into the box.

Finally I think the interceptions stats show that we will look to win the ball higher up the pitch which again will be a positive for fans.

Overall it is good reading I think we will see a return in style which was quite similar to Joe Royle Side around the 1995/6 years. We will play and pass the ball when we can but also look to get crosses into the box as a central strategy alongside putting the opponents under pressure when we don’t have the ball.

Obviously please come back to me with who you think this will affect positively or negatively. The obvious names that spring to mind for positives are Deulofeu & Baines. Koeman likes crosses and that is their natural game. I think he will like Mori as he is quite dominant in the air.

For those with difficulty, I think Lennon will find it difficult as his end product in wide areas is a real weakness. I think McCarthy has a big season as Koeman like either physical or technical players in central midfield (Wanyama or Claissie) I’m not sure which McCarthy fits.

The other one who may struggle is Barkley. Koemans teams don’t dribble much (lowest in the league for this) and it’s one of Ross’s strengths. He seems to like strength and legs in his front 2 which at present isn’t his strength. Maybe he will need to drop back to be a deep lying playmaker? All food for though. I am a massive fan of Ross so not writing him off at all.

Overall though I think Koeman will focus on tightening us up defensively, I wouldn’t expect too much more than this this season. We will be more up and at them at Goodison and will throw more balls into the box. In general I think we will respond well to that.
Catcher. The aerial prowess is all the more surprising when you consider that our centreforward is possibly the biggest and most powerful in the premiership.
Also, I seem to remember a lot of goals at the start of the season scored by Lukaku coming from wing play be Deulofeu.
 

There's a short video on YT from the Southampton official account with every goal they scored this season.

An absolute buttload of them are headers from crosses. At least 70% I'd guess.

They definitely score a lot more from headers. The 2 noticeable things from the stats were 1) We will focus more aerially in attack and defence and 2) we will tighten up defensively.

The first is down to Southampton being the best in the league at it. The second is more down to our deficiencies. Southampton are good at Defending but we were woeful in aspects.

The Pelle links make a lot of sense now. What Koeman would have given for a Duncan Fergusan of 20 years ago!
 
Catcher. The aerial prowess is all the more surprising when you consider that our centreforward is possibly the biggest and most powerful in the premiership.
Also, I seem to remember a lot of goals at the start of the season scored by Lukaku coming from wing play be Deulofeu.

...I suggest Pelle is more of the traditional target man CF who contests a lot of aerial passes.
 
Catcher. The aerial prowess is all the more surprising when you consider that our centreforward is possibly the biggest and most powerful in the premiership.
Also, I seem to remember a lot of goals at the start of the season scored by Lukaku coming from wing play be Deulofeu.

Absolutely. He is not the best in the air but has been allowed to get away with that. If he stays I don't think Koeman will be as soft on him.

I wanted to include my views on Lukaku in the original post, however I felt it was probably long enough. I think Lukaku could go either way under Koeman. On the one hand he is a big, strong quick powerful lad but he doesn't put himself about enough in games. Some games he is a monster but others he's a mouse.

However his first touch is very poor and this is something Koeman likes (he mentioned hitting Pelle from deep on MNF) and I don't think Lukaku will ever develop this enough. I can easily see him being able to be more aggressive, but his touch won't get better.

The defence you could put for him though is Koeman has generally paired Long with Pelle. Long has great legs like Lukaku but not a great touch. Whereas Pelle isn't quick but has a good touch. He may need help up there. It's a shame Deeney is priced at what he is as he would be a good partner for him.

Anyway yes if Lukaku stays I think Koeman will make it clear to him more will be expected. If he is sensible he will get on board with it. Deulofeu and Baines supplying him crosses could see him getting any number of goals next season. If I was him I'd rather that than going to be second choice at Chelsea, but we will see.
 
...I suggest Pelle is more of the traditional target man CF who contests a lot of aerial passes.

Yes spot on. I think Lukaku is more similar to Long who will run in behind and make a nuisance of himself. I think Koeman will get a lad in to support Lukaku if he goes, which is kind of why I mentioned Barkley being one I am dubious on. I can't see him being played as a second striker.
 

I think Barkely will thrive playing from deeper - his biggest strength is indeed running with the ball, and so playing from deep he would help turn defense into attack regularly. Also a huge boost for Barkley would be playing in a team that actually uses two wingers to stretch the opposition. Under RM we were far too narrow and Barkley playing up in the ten role found it very difficult to find space.
 
Great stuff.

I agree on Baines and Deulofeu. I expect them to have a much improved season. Deulofeu's crosses in particular are wicked.

You're right mate, can see him grabbing our lot by the scruff of the neck and improvising us in all departments.

I think one of Roberto's problems was he was huffy rather than being confrontational and getting problems nipped n the bud, I think from his interviews Koeman is more direct and doesn't hold grudges as much.
 

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