777 Partners / Whatever the hell you like

[Neiler]

Half of that debt is Moshiri's shareholder loans though, and I doubt he's getting that back. No denying the bloke has done his brains and at best is going to get out with a massive loss but from what i can see (as @PeregrineT says above) the value of the assets still exceeds the value of the external debt, so the club does not have no value.

It’s not really half, it less mate - exactly so he’s lost 400 - 500 mill already, that’s the value of his investment as equity, by the end he/we will prob have additional 500-700 mill in external debt (he wont want to pay or be exposed to that). On a good day that might cover our assets (though I don’t think so). But realistically if your selling the ground and the entire playing squad to meet your outgoings your in administration.

But you also have a business in need of being capitalised and invested in, struggling as a going concern, so essentially the club is worth nothing and his stake is worth nothing, factoring in all the above to the + and -. Thus here we are and what’s happening. Hes pulling the parachute cord and getting out of dodge and selling us in a highly structured deal for next to nothing because only a shower of gangsters who wouldn’t get to any other table are giving him something meagre.

 

[ForeverEverton]

He wants out, he wants nothing to do with the club.

Because of that, he’s not willing to put more capital at risk.

I know he is mad but even Moshiri isn`t going to give up £200m/£300m and walk away with nothing... He will want as much of his investment back as possible.

But others on here go on like he is just going to give it away for the sake of funding a few months.

 

[Goat]

Everton shares sell for around £3,000 each.

I dont know how somebody can tell somebody who owns 127k of them that they are worthless.

 

[PeregrineT]

It’s not really half, it less mate - exactly so he’s lost 400 - 500 mill already, that’s the value of his investment as equity, by the end he/we will prob have additional 500-700 mill in external debt (he wont want to pay or be exposed to that). On a good day that might cover our assets (though I don’t think so). But realistically if your selling the ground and the entire playing squad to meet your outgoings your in administration.

But you also have a business in need of being capitalised and invested in, struggling as a going concern, so essentially the club is worth nothing and his stake is worth nothing, factoring in all the above to the + and -. Thus here we are and what’s happening. Hes pulling the parachute cord and getting out of dodge.

Its not really a business that needs to be capitalised and invested in though. It was when we were badly overspending. But now over the past couple of years we are breakeven or profitable. Even if revenue was 190m and expenses were 200m per year, Moshiri could float the entire club for 5 years with 50m. Its just cash flow isnt even throughout the year, as the bulk of it is the PL payout and TV payout which happen twice in the year.

As long as the club is revenue neutral, he can float it for forever without spending a dime. Losing 500m because you dont want to pay back the 500m loan you made to yourself(really what it is) would be insanity. Shareholder loans are meaningless for a sale when its the majority shareholder whos selling. He knows hes loaned 500m(or whatever it is), he knows he paid money to buy his shares. But REALLY he can either lose 1 billion, or 500 million, its purely his choice and Ill bet 500 million he chooses the lower number.

 

[ForeverEverton]

His asset is worth nothing though, at what point does he just cut his losses, there comes a point when nothing is worth more then giving ,another 200 mill - that’s where he’s at. It’s also the choice he could make around administration.

Why do you say the assets are worthless?

A premier league club with 2 stadiums at Goodison and BMD, multiple property through EITC and retail... yes the majority is mortgaged but that doesnt make the asset worthless, it still holds a value and the debt on these will be reducing with every repayment.

Moshiri simply isn`t going to "chuck it all in" but will no doubt leave at a big loss.

If he needed to fund Everton £20m a month to the end of the season that is c£60m for a return in the 100s of millions. If the next owners can run us properly we stand a chance of going forward next season.

 

[ForeverEverton]

MSP, have a brilliant deal at the moment, there 140 mill is secured against BMD and the lease with Peel - awful deal for us.

You`d hope if the new owners had their wits about them they would get that one paid off or bought back 1st.

 

[Neiler]

So if shares are valued at 3000 and he has a 127k then the value of his equity is 381 mill, he’s put in 400 - 500 mill, while he’s exposed to an additional 500-700 mill of external debt.

Would many pay 381 mill, to buy 500-700 mill of debt, after looseing 400-500 already.

Overall it values the club at over a billion.

His stake is next to worthless.

 

[ForeverEverton]

For all we know 777 might prefer to use the loans from their internal companies rather than those who have the debt currently and opt to pay all these off and have the debt on the group rather than on Everton.

It`s an option...

 

[ForeverEverton]

So if shares are valued at 3000 and he has a 127k then the value of his equity is 381 mill, he’s out in 400 - 500 mill, while he’s exposed to 500-700 mill of debt.

Would many pay 381 mill, to but 500-700 mill of debt.

Overall it values the club at over a billion.

West Ham who don`t own their own ground let alone 2 is valued at £800m, so when you think about the property Everton own in the City is that too much to believe?

 

[ForeverEverton]

So if shares are valued at 3000 and he has a 127k then the value of his equity is 381 mill, he’s put in 400 - 500 mill, while he’s exposed to an additional 500-700 mill of external debt.

Would many pay 381 mill, to buy 500-700 mill of debt, after looseing 400-500 already.

Overall it values the club at over a billion.

His stake is next to worthless.

Or look at this another way....

How much will the Stadium be valued at when complete? £700m?

How much do we think the club is worth? £381m? Just there values the club at £1.081bn plus then taking in to account Goodison and the other property and land the club owns, so I`d say £1bn isn`t too far away from a realistic back of a fag packet valuation.

 

[Neiler]

West Ham who don`t own their own ground let alone 2 is valued at £800m, so when you think about the property Everton own in the City is that too much to believe?

Where is that value coming from mate? I’m not aware of it.

Exactly, they don’t own to ground, so they don’t have 700 mill odd of external debt we do. If we didn’t have that external debt then Moshiri stake isn’t worthless - but we do. You can’t just say the stadium is worth this - when it’s not paid for, it’s a liability.

Like it or not WHU make 70+ mill more then us a year, with none of the external debt we have against the ground.

If Moshiri had stayed at Goodison, his stake would have been worth more.

 

[Neiler]

Or look at this another way....

How much will the Stadium be valued at when complete? £700m?

How much do we think the club is worth? £381m? Just there values the club at £1.081bn plus then taking in to account Goodison and the other property and land the club owns, so I`d say £1bn isn`t too far away from a realistic back of a fag packet valuation.

But if the stadium, is worth 700 mill and that’s what it cost to build ( it doesn’t mean it’s worth that) and it needs 700 mill to be paid back, then it’s not a 700 mill asset because it still needs to be paid for + interest, so it cancels itself out in terms of value of the equity stake.

If I build a house, borrow 500k, then sell that to you for the 500k and I also sell you my 500k of debt, you need to spend 1million. Thats what you are proposing by saying the stadium is worth 700 mill to Moshiri - it’s not he hasn’t paid for it.

 

[ForeverEverton]

Where is that value coming from mate? I’m not aware of it.

Exactly, they don’t own to ground, so they don’t have 700 mill odd of external debt we do. If we didn’t have that external debt that Moshiri stake isn’t worth less - but we do. You can’t just say the stadium is worth this - when it’s not paid for, it’s a liability.

Like it or not WHU make 70+ mill more then us a year, with none of the external debt we have against the ground.

If Moshiri had stayed at Goodison, his stake would have been worth more.

The liabilities will be on the company and not on Moshiri individually, I`m sure 777 have been talked in to taking them debts to get the club.

It`s hard to see how the numbers stack up when we aren`t in the know, it is all speculation. I just hope if it is 777 they have a plan and if it isn`t Moshiri lowers the price to get serious investment through the door.

 

[ForeverEverton]

Where is that value coming from mate? I’m not aware of it.

Exactly, they don’t own to ground, so they don’t have 700 mill odd of external debt we do. If we didn’t have that external debt then Moshiri stake isn’t worthless - but we do. You can’t just say the stadium is worth this - when it’s not paid for, it’s a liability.

Like it or not WHU make 70+ mill more then us a year, with none of the external debt we have against the ground.

If Moshiri had stayed at Goodison, his stake would have been worth more.

Share price on West Ham when they got a new investor or looking to get new investment.

I don`t agree because Goodison is mortgaged to the hilt and the land surrrounding, over time though property gains value so all the debts against these would look smaller than what they would have been initially...

 

[Neiler]

The liabilities will be on the company and not on Moshiri individually, I`m sure 777 have been talked in to taking them debts to get the club.

It`s hard to see how the numbers stack up when we aren`t in the know, it is all speculation. I just hope if it is 777 they have a plan and if it isn`t Moshiri lowers the price to get serious investment through the door.

Exactly, but Moshiri isn’t selling himself or his personal wealth he’s selling a stake in the company with those liabilities.

777 obviously have, when or if they buy the stake then they inherit the debt, how they or we pay them is another story - so by taking those debt that will be factored into price of the equity - essentially Moshiri will get something meagre and lucky to get it because his stake is worthless.

I don’t think it’s speculation mate, a lot of the numbers are in the public domain.

777 are gangsters mate, they wouldn’t even be in the front door, unless it they were giving Moshiri something - that the only reason they are being entertained. It’s a poor deal for the club.