4th Place - What's it going to take?

Royal-Blue-Mersey · April 16, 2014

Christiffa25 said:
Yeah but as you said we are already on such a run! Will be very hard to keep that going till season end. I mean that would literally be title winning form....13 wins in a row is say is impossible for us.

Part of me completly agrees with you (the rational part of me that is!), but nobody would have thought 7 consecutive wins was possible, I think we are already playing in "title winning form".

As you've seen with those lot across the park, momentum can be very hard to stop. The next 3 games at Goodison will be electric.

Billy Dean · April 16, 2014

Christiffa25 said:
Yeah but as you said we are already on such a run! Will be very hard to keep that going till season end. I mean that would literally be title winning form....13 wins in a row is say is impossible for us.

indeed, I reckon we'll win 3 and draw 2, which I guess would see us finish above Arsenal on GD if they win and draw 1

SteRobbo84 · April 16, 2014

Christ the mood here is depressing! Yeah sure, our run in looks more difficult than Arsenal's and it will be a challenge to keep our winning streak going but if we win tonight we will be fourth with four games of the season left. If you can't be optimistic at this point then you may as well pack it in.

LTblue · April 16, 2014

SteRobbo84 said:
Christ the mood here is depressing! Yeah sure, our run in looks more difficult than Arsenal's and it will be a challenge to keep our winning streak going but if we win tonight we will be fourth with four games of the season left. If you can't be optimistic at this point then you may as well pack it in.

Spot on this man.

ToffeeDan · April 16, 2014

Current standings in various leagues across Europe project that, if we were to finish 4th - our likely opponent in the 4th Qualifying Round would be one of:

Porto, Napoli, Bayer Leverkusen, Athletic Bilbao and, via the 3rd Qualifying Round, Shaktar Donetsk. If SD were to lose then the next seeded team projected to qualify, be seeded and win through to the 4th QR would be Lille.

So, to summarise: As things stand at the moment in various leagues:

Porto, Napoli, Bayer Leverkusen, Athletic Bilbao, Shaktar Donetsk/Lille.

TX Bill · April 16, 2014

TX Bill said:
How long you been supporting Everton? I only ask because I don't ever remember a time where we DIDN'T make a hash of it in some way, shape, or form. I've only been supporting the club since 1998-99 so I'm used to it.

Again, I'm just going on probabilities. Because they drew at home to Swansea doesn't translate to them drawing at home again.

Yeah, they could. They could even lose a match. Everton could win all of their games too.

But the probability of us winning all of our remaining fixtures and Arsenal losing one of theirs, is by definition, very low at this point.

TX Bill said:
What's it going to take?

Honestly?

1) Arsenal, even on current form, should win every match they have.
2) Everton, even on current form, will have one obligatory slip up. I'm calling away against Hull but it could be any of them.
3) Everton need to win every match. I don't see that happening.
4) Arsenal need to slip up in one of their matches. I don't see that happening.

If you've following Everton for any length of time, we don't do 12 match winning streaks. We may do 12 match unbeaten runs but you'll need to throw a few draws in there.

Games I look back on with regret:

1) First three of the season. Look at who we played. Geez !!! Winning any one or two of those and things are great.
2) Spurs away. One point dropped there due to a switch off in concentration.
3) Chelsea away. One point dropped there for the same reason.

I see us getting fifth. Not bad. Not bad at all.

TX Bill said:
I'm not doubting that we can do it and you make a very good point.

I guess I'm just not putting the probability of it happening as high as most people are.

I put our chances at getting that fourth spot currently at 25-30%. Now, if we win a few more and Arsenal do indeed lose a match, then naturally that probability goes higher.

I'm not one to tell people "I told you so..." but in this case, it's warranted. Too many forget how Everton go about doing things and get caught up in the moment.

And I'll tell you this, if it wasn't Palace, it was going to be Hull or Southampton. We were going to lose a match somewhere.

If you're still banking on Arsenal losing, I won't, despite their form. They've got about as easy a run in as you could get. So therefore:

1) They must draw or lose at least one match.
2) We must win EVERY match.

Don't see it happening.

But as I said earlier in this thread, I'd be very happy with 5th. And while I might be the resident optimist, I'm also a realist.

EFC Si · April 16, 2014

TX Bill said:
I'm not one to tell people "I told you so..." but in this case, it's warranted. Too many forget how Everton go about doing things and get caught up in the moment.

And I'll tell you this, if it wasn't Palace, it was going to be Hull or Southampton. We were going to lose a match somewhere.

If you're still banking on Arsenal losing, I won't, despite their form. They've got about as easy a run in as you could get. So therefore:

1) They must draw or lose at least one match.
2) We must win EVERY match.

Don't see it happening.

But as I said earlier in this thread, I'd be very happy with 5th. And while I might be the resident optimist, I'm also a realist.

That's depressing how correct you are

TX Bill · April 16, 2014

EFC Si said:
That's depressing how correct you are

I know.

I'm usually a "rah rah" kind of guy and do choose to be an optimist about things but I just never had a great feeling about this.

Now I'm not saying it can't be done but it's a very very tall order.

EFC Si · April 16, 2014

At least City are out of the title race so should roll over at goodison now.

GrandOldTeam · April 16, 2014

TX Bill said:
I'm not one to tell people "I told you so..." but in this case, it's warranted. Too many forget how Everton go about doing things and get caught up in the moment.

And I'll tell you this, if it wasn't Palace, it was going to be Hull or Southampton. We were going to lose a match somewhere.

If you're still banking on Arsenal losing, I won't, despite their form. They've got about as easy a run in as you could get. So therefore:

1) They must draw or lose at least one match.
2) We must win EVERY match.

Don't see it happening.

But as I said earlier in this thread, I'd be very happy with 5th. And while I might be the resident optimist, I'm also a realist.

Not sure about that. It's never as black and white as that.

Who would have known we would have won 7 on the bounce and been in contention?

I'd ne surprised if Arsenal win every one of the remaining games - you say they have an easy run in? There's no easy games at this stage of the season...

Allezfan · April 16, 2014

We could easily be back in 4th by next sunday.

GrandOldTeam · April 16, 2014

Allezfan said:
We could easily be back in 4th by next sunday.

Absolutely.

Fancy us vs Man Utd. Fancy Arsenal to have a game on their hands away at Hull...

TX Bill · April 16, 2014

GrandOldTeam said:
Not sure about that. It's never as black and white as that.

Who would have known we would have won 7 on the bounce and been in contention?

I'd be surprised if Arsenal win every one of the remaining games - you say they have an easy run in? There's no easy games at this stage of the season...

Well nothing is ever certain but earlier in this thread, I mentioned probabilities and I felt that the probability of the stars lining up for us to hit fourth were slim.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Arsenal won out. Can they slip up? Yeah, I guess they could (WBA could do it to them) but I think the odds are lower than most think.