Confirmed Signing Tyler Dibling

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Ring master said:
Seems Saints are just maybe overpricing everyone out a move

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On one hand I respect them keeping players who are under contract

But on the other hand, keeping unhappy players rarely works out well. Players will get unhappy and it can impact the squad. Also other players won't join if they think they won't get another move in future.

If they keep the players they need to get promoted.
 


ToffeeTim said:
On one hand I respect them keeping players who are under contract

But on the other hand, keeping unhappy players rarely works out well. Players will get unhappy and it can impact the squad. Also other players won't join if they think they won't get another move in future.

If they keep the players they need to get promoted.
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There are almost three weeks left in the window, they don't need to capitulate yet (if they will).
 
Jebus_lives said:
What in the world?!?
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Jebus_lives said:
They also risk nothing from a future sale. He could be a total flop.

Both are a gamble.
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I mean its the higher high financially speaking but I think the sell on is still more logical for them removed of that number. My point is Southampton would likely want to keep that possibility, because the more median is something like 20 percent of 60 million. That in itself is 12 million. We are buying for only 20 million less than that at best. If we don't think he can surpass that we likely shouldn't be doing this deal ourselves.

My point both parties should likely be thinking he can hit a 70 million evaluation in an optimistic, but somewhat reasonable projection. In that case thats fetching 14 million for Southampton additionally to say 40 million in the initial deal. In that case we are fetching something similar (16 million) in profit on top of what we paid initially. I could see both parties seeing that as fair.
 
pfim said:
There are almost three weeks left in the window, they don't need to capitulate yet (if they will).
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I think they probably do though. If Everton sign one of the other options, that's Southampton scrabbling around to sell him to somebody else, or, they keep him and have him move into the final year of his contract in the summer. Not the situation you would want with such a valuable asset.
 
nonstripdzebra said:
I mean its the higher high financially speaking but I think the sell on is still more logical for them removed of that number. My point is Southampton would likely want to keep that possibility, because the more median is something like 20 percent of 60 million. That in itself is 12 million. We are buying for only 20 million less than that at best. If we don't think he can surpass that we likely shouldn't be doing this deal ourselves.

My point both parties should likely be thinking he can hit a 70 million evaluation in an optimistic, but somewhat reasonable projection. In that case thats fetching 14 million for Southampton additionally to say 40 million in the initial deal. In that case we are fetching something similar (16 million) in profit on top of what we paid initially. I could see both parties seeing that as fair.
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I can see why Southampton would want to do that. I'm not sure why Everton would want to do that.

It puts all the risk on us, with very little benefit (once sold).
 

nonstripdzebra said:
That said those hierarchies are nuanced with each club having known strengths. Southampton may be in the championship, but they still are arguably one of the five best develop academies in the country. Dibling's history with the club (albeit in different stints) is what it is. They have spent collectively over a decade to get him to become this current level of player. The whole club model is based on garnering resources from selling at a premium the best academy products they've produced.

Both things can be true. It's dog eat dog, there is a hierarchy in regards to resources, and to a degree public perception. But that doesn't change clubs right to their own calculus and or their competence. In this case Southampton has a right to hold firm on their eval, to a degree again, considering their strategy should almost be expected. It's equally fair for us to think it's too steep.

The question is where this might settle. Is there an transfer fee with sell on that splits the difference. I wouldn't be shocked if it winds up at 38/40ish with a percentage sell on.
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You've the right not to leave a burning house, it doesn't make it a wise decision, no one in questioning Southampton's right to agency in decision making, just the dynamics of the wisdom of that judgement - if indeed that's what it is, i think that's alright, given its football discussion forum.
 
Jebus_lives said:
I can see why Southampton would want to do that. I'm not sure why Everton would want to do that.

It puts all the risk on us, with very little benefit (once sold).
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I dont disagree that construction is a bit more in their favor. But it just comes to how good of a prospect you think he is because that becomes the rationale for the upfront amount in correlation to a possible future return.

Like I said if we don't think he can somewhat likely hit James Maddison level high point evaluation at Leicester with somewhat decent assurance, Id argue 40 million now is too high. If we don't think he can surpass 75 million with that same confidence, 50 million now should be off the table. That said that seems to be the number Southampton is holding out for removed of sell on's, if not including them.

Point is make it make sense. Just trying to conceive how a deal is feasible.
 

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