Summer Transfer Window 2025 Thread


hetion said:
Just to follow on from this, almost nobody ever consistently exceeds their expected assists, it just doesn't happen. Even Messi - one of the only players to ever consistently exceed their xG - didn't at Barca, and think about the players he was passing to to finish.

Player price is still affected by raw output though - so if you have two identical players with 7 expected assists, but one with 5 full assists and one with 14, you are going to pay a lot more for the second one, even if they made the exact same passes. Buying low vs buying high.

Mbuemo is a great example of this - he is a good player but he DOUBLED his xG with his goal return this year, so United are probably huuugely overpaying for him. It is roughly as likely, given the shots he got off, that he scored 5 goals instead of 20. Would United be likely paying £60m for him then? And he's not a consistent overperforming finisher - this season is the only time in the PL that he his goals have exceeded his xG. He's underperformed it every other season so far.
Click to expand...
I've heard it all now. We should ignore goals that are bangers because the player wasn't expected to score them.😂
 
roy vernon said:
We can, at a push, manage with Beto and Barry. In an emergency Ndiaye can fill in up top. Not ideal, but, we've a lot of positions we need to cover before a third choice striker.
Click to expand...

Pointless having strikers when you can't supply them and as it stands we don't have enough routes of supply.

RW and CM are musts. If those two additions are quality I will get excited for what could be next season.
 
Brett Angell Delight said:
The report is a supporter/fanzine owner having a wild guess at what they might accept. Not a chance they let him go for that, certainly not to us.
Click to expand...

It's worse than that mate, it's these;

1752140306564.webp


A network site of these;

1752140324404.webp



So like Goodison News, Everton News etc - agencies who employ content folk to lash out as much content as possible. They dont care about accuracy, just volume/getting to the top of Google for searches for clicks.
 

GrandOldTeam said:
It's worse than that mate, it's these;

View attachment 316325

A network site of these;

View attachment 316326


So like Goodison News, Everton News etc - agencies who employ content folk to lash out as much content as possible. They dont care about accuracy, just volume/getting to the top of Google for searches for clicks.
Click to expand...
What a very, very odd world we live in.

On the bright side, though, Richy is coming back for £20m. I'll get the thread started.
 
Kevsleftpeg said:
I've heard it all now. We should ignore goals that are bangers because the player wasn't expected to score them.😂
Click to expand...
No, but your poster boy for this argument is, formerly of this parish, Sandro Ramirez.

The season before he signed for us, he scored an unusual number of absolute bangers - over-performing his xG significantly, He, basically, had the season of his life and everything he hit was going in.

Now, Everton being Everton, looked at that and thought "blimey, that lad can't half hit them. We could do with some of those blammos here, let's give him £120k per week". What the sensible thing to have done would have been to look at it and think "could he do that consistently?" because statistically speaking, unless he was on Messi's level, the likelihood of him doing that was incredibly low.

You don't ignore them, but you apply some logic that says it's not often that those sort of shots are going to go in.

Love it or hate it, data has changed the way people analyse football. You can absolutely overperform against the average (if you're an average player), but you'll never do it consistently and are just as likely to underperform against the average. Very few players consistently outperform their xG, virtually none ever consistently outperform their xA (because you rely on another player converting the chance you're creating for them, so even truly great players lose control of the outcome)
 

toffeeblue9 said:
No, but your poster boy for this argument is, formerly of this parish, Sandro Ramirez.

The season before he signed for us, he scored an unusual number of absolute bangers - over-performing his xG significantly, He, basically, had the season of his life and everything he hit was going in.

Now, Everton being Everton, looked at that and thought "blimey, that lad can't half hit them. We could do with some of those blammos here, let's give him £120k per week". What the sensible thing to have done would have been to look at it and think "could he do that consistently?" because statistically speaking, unless he was on Messi's level, the likelihood of him doing that was incredibly low.

You don't ignore them, but you apply some logic that says it's not often that those sort of shots are going to go in.

Love it or hate it, data has changed the way people analyse football. You can absolutely overperform against the average (if you're an average player), but you'll never do it consistently and are just as likely to underperform against the average. Very few players consistently outperform their xG, virtually none ever consistently outperform their xA (because you rely on another player converting the chance you're creating for them, so even truly great players lose control of the outcome)
Click to expand...
Hahah I did not see this, I like that we both immediately thought of Sandro
 
when i score we riot said:
I just want to say that i am enjoying this summer and the fact the club is on the front foot doing business. Love that we seem to have our decision making straight now that there is no DOF or Moshiri to mess things up
Click to expand...

I appreciate wanting to find optimism, but I'm not sure we're on the front foot. We needed players more than any other club in the league -
Only Crystal Palace, Fulham and Newcastle have signed less.

Moyes will have wanted a few more in by now.

Branthwaite renewal is great, but Alcaraz we had an option on and we've only signed one new player yesterday who there wasn't really any competition for. Let's not be too quick to dish out praise.
 
GrandOldTeam said:
I appreciate wanting to find optimism, but I'm not sure we're on the front foot. We needed players more than any other club in the league -
Only Crystal Palace, Fulham and Newcastle have signed less.

Moyes will have wanted a few more in by now.

Branthwaite renewal is great, but Alcaraz we had an option on and we've only signed one new player yesterday who there wasn't really any competition for. Let's not be too quick to dish out praise.
Click to expand...

I like it when someone says what I think for me.

We have the biggest job on in the league and the speed we are moving has to be concerning, if you don't think it is you're just burying your head.
 
roy vernon said:
We can, at a push, manage with Beto and Barry. In an emergency Ndiaye can fill in up top. Not ideal, but, we've a lot of positions we need to cover before a third choice striker.
Click to expand...
It's a tough one. If Chermiti is going out on loan I think we could do with another option personally. You're only one bad injury away from having no competition or options which isn't ideal. Whether it's an out and out striker or someone who can play across the front I think we probably need someone, but it's obviously not necessarily that easy when you've got as much to do as we have.
 

Welcome

Join Grand Old Team to get involved in the Everton discussion. Signing up is quick, easy, and completely free.

Register

Shop

Back
Top